National Republican and Democratic PACs have poured millions into the race that could narrow Speaker Mike Johnson’s (R-LA) razor-thin majority in the House, particularly as Democrats are prepared to gain at least two new members next year to fill vacancies. 

Is the Democrats’ momentum real? 

Democrats are coming fresh off three key wins in early November. Combined with recent analyses placing them at a distinct advantage heading into 2026, a major question to be answered on Tuesday is whether this momentum and energy are just a fleeting tide or a rising blue wave.

The latest polling for Tennessee’s Seventh Congressional District shows Van Epps slightly in the lead over Behn. A survey from Emerson College Polling-The Hill found Van Epps in the lead, 48% to Behn’s 46%. Five percent of voters are undecided, and 2% plan to vote for a third-party candidate.

Political indexes have also shifted their ratings of the contest, with Cook Political Report moving it from “solid Republican” to “likely Republican” and Inside Elections going further, shifting it from “safe Republican” to “lean Republican.”

However, Cook Political Report sticks by its decision to rate it as likely a Republican victory, anticipating that the national attention on the race will ultimately benefit Epps.

The race in Tennessee should theoretically be an easy get for Republicans, given the large margins Trump and Green won by last year. But Democrats are looking to turn this race into a referendum on Trump’s policies, Republicans’ control of Congress, and issues with GOP voter turnout in an election where Trump is not on the ballot.

A Democratic win in Tuesday’s election would be the fourth-biggest special election flip in the last 20 years, per Decision Desk. The top three included a 2010 flip from blue to red in Hawaii, a 2008 flip in Mississippi from red to blue, and a 2018 red to blue flip in Pennsylvania. In all three races, the party that lost had won the seat in the previous presidential election by over 20 points.

Democrats are hoping that their recent wins, which included flipping the governor’s mansion blue in Virginia and maintaining the governor and mayorships in New Jersey and New York City, respectively, will carry over into the 2026 midterm elections. Historically, the party opposite the one in the White House has flipped the House in midterm elections, putting Democrats already at an advantage. 

Currently, the House majority sits at 219 Republicans to 213 Democrats, so Johnson can only afford to lose two GOP votes to still pass legislation along party lines. 

If Behn wins, that margin stays the same, but it would be an early Christmas gift for Democrats. A special election taking place at the end of January in Texas is likely to stay in Democratic hands, and that would narrow Johnson’s margin to just one vote.

Do national endorsements still carry weight? 

National figures are leaping into the race to support their respective candidates, including Trump and former Vice President Kamala Harris. The election has brought in millions of dollars in spending from outside groups, as parties eye the race as the last major temperature check of 2025.

Johnson traveled to the Seventh District on Monday to rally support for Van Epps with Republican National Committee Chairman Joe Gruters and Tennessee GOP Chairman Scott Golden. At an event, Johnson called the president and held the phone up to the microphone for attendees to hear.

“Matt Van Epps, he’s a winner, he’s gonna be great,” Trump said. “Don’t let this stuff fool you: the Democrats are spending a fortune.” 

Trump said he was bothered by previous comments that Behn had made about Nashville several years ago.

“No. 1, she hates Christianity. No. 2, she hates country music. How the hell can you elect a person like that?” Trump said, receiving laughter and cheers from the audience and from the speaker.

The president finished by saying that the “whole world” is watching and the results should show that the Republican Party is “stronger than it’s ever been.” He and Johnson held a final tele-rally Monday night as a last-minute effort to motivate GOP voters to get out and cast their ballots.

Meanwhile, Harris has thrown her weight behind Behn and spoke at a rally for the candidate on Tuesday. To boost turnout, Behn had also enlisted the help of prominent Democrats, including Democratic National Committee Chairman Ken Martin and Rep. Jasmine Crockett (D-TX).

Though Behn will have significant ground to cover if she’s to perform well in the district, the election will also be a test to see if Van Epps can encourage non-Trump voters to turn out for him. Trump’s endorsement helped the Republican sail easily to victory in the GOP primary, but some strategists think Democrats have done a better job of immediately pivoting to a general election mindset.

“We’ve been so focused on the Republican primary, because that’s really the only game in town for most of the state,” Chip Saltsman, a Nashville-based Republican strategist not working with Van Epps’s campaign, told CNN in an interview. “Republicans got a little bit of a late start in reminding [voters] that there is actually a general election.”

Will GOP voters turn out? 

Messaging from the parties in the aftermath of the race will be telling. Special elections, both parties have argued, are not indicative of what’s to come in the midterm elections — especially since the elections this year have largely been to fill blue or red strongholds. 

If Republicans are victorious, they’ll say it’s a rebuke of Democratic policies and a show of strength and trust in the GOP agenda. But if they don’t win, Johnson may do what he did in the wake of New York City Mayor-elect Zohran Mamdani’s victory and downplay it as an off-year victory due to a historical lack of GOP voter turnout.

Some Republicans are already anticipating this.

“We’ve got 45% of so-called evangelical Christians will stay home, about 30% of gun owners will stay home,” Rep. Tim Burchett (R-TN) predicted in an interview. “They’ll sit in their church pews, cocky about everything.”

Strategists have long said in several other states that they are worried that Republican voters will fall into old habits, thinking that because the GOP holds the trifecta, their work is done. 

Burchett said the timing of the election, happening right after the Thanksgiving holiday, could be problematic for voter turnout. He argued that this race should not be one that “we just get under the wire.” 

“We better wake up,” Burchett said. “We were gonna get up the day after the election and scratch our heads and wonder what the hell just happened.” 

Is affordability still the hot issue?

Republicans have sought to tie Behn, a state representative and former national organizer for progressive group Indivisible, to household names like Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (D-NY). 

They’ve accused the Democratic candidate of being too “far left” for Tennessee. Of the more than $4 million spent on this race since the October primaries, approximately $2.5 million has come from Republicans and allied groups, per AdImpact.

But Behn has capitalized on a key platform: affordability. Making that policy area the focal point of their campaigns is what helped socialist Mamdani and centrists Abigail Spanberger and Mikie Sherrill sail to victory on Nov. 4. 

Behn has centered her campaigning on healthcare, as well — a significant issue heading into the midterm elections after the GOP’s One Big Beautiful Bill Act cut healthcare benefits for millions of Americans, and Affordable Care Act tax credits are set to expire on Dec. 31.

“This race is competitive because the Washington Republican agenda has not delivered,” Behn told CNN. “They have not addressed costs despite the commitment from the Trump administration to make groceries cheaper, utilities cheaper, rent cheaper … and I think people are looking for an opportunity to vote for someone who’s going to usher in an era of change.”

Van Epps has also focused on the economy, a sign he is well aware he cannot solely ride his Trump endorsement to victory. In an ad released in November, he leaned into his military background, saying his new mission is to “bring down prices, create good-paying jobs and lower healthcare costs for working families.”

BLACKBURN TEMPERS EXPECTATIONS IN TENNESSEE SPECIAL ELECTION

Behn has largely blamed Trump’s tariff policies for the affordability crisis, a method that worked well in New York City and New Jersey. But Van Epps took a route blaming career politicians for wrecking the country, insisting it’s time for new blood. 

Heading into the midterm elections, it’s likely the economy will be the motivating driver for voters to hit the ballot boxes — particularly as Trump faces record-low approval ratings and key voting blocs such as Hispanics disapprove strongly of the president’s economic and immigration policies.