Tim Scott Campaign: State Polls Reveal Ground Reality More Accurately
The Importance of State Polls in Determining Presidential Debate Placement
The campaign manager for South Carolina Senator Tim Scott believes that state polls should take precedence over national polls when determining the candidates’ standings in the presidential debates.
While national polls currently place Scott in sixth position with just 2.5% support, he performs more competitively in the first two primary states. In Iowa, he ranks third with 9% support, and in New Hampshire, he holds the fourth position with 7.5% support.
Advocating for State Polls
Scott’s campaign manager, Jennifer DeCasper, has written two letters to Republican National Committee Chair Ronna McDaniel, arguing that state polls in the “carve-out” states of Iowa, New Hampshire, Nevada, and South Carolina provide a more accurate reflection of the candidates’ status.
DeCasper asserts, “Relying on national polling results for podium placement would not represent where the candidates actually stand in relation to where we are in the process with the voters.”
She proposes that the “carve-out” state polling should carry more weight when considering podium placement for the September debate. Specifically, she suggests that polling results from Iowa should be the primary consideration, or alternatively, the RNC could average the candidates’ polling results from all four “carve-out” states.
Receptive to Input
RNC spokesperson Emma Vaughn assures that the debate committee welcomes input from all candidates, partners, and stakeholders. She states, “The debate committee has had a very thoughtful approach to the entire process.”
Criticism of National Polls
Not everyone agrees with the emphasis on national polls. Former New Hampshire Republican Senator Scott Brown criticizes the preference given to these polls, arguing that more weight should be placed on the early primary states where candidates focus their efforts.
Challenges in Polling
Pew Research has addressed the challenges associated with polling, highlighting the different methodologies used by polling organizations. These variations, such as phone interviews, online panels, and robocalls, can impact data quality and accuracy in elections.
Pew notes that a poll may claim to be “nationally representative,” but that does not guarantee the solidity of its methodology. The margin of error is often double what is reported, and while national polls can identify preferred candidates, they may fail to predict the ultimate winner.
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