This Year’s Flu Vaccine Only Worked for an Unusually Small Fraction of Recipients, CDC Admits
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As warmer weather arrives, flu season is easing, but the flu vaccine’s effectiveness has fallen sharply due to a new strain that wasn’t well matched to the vaccine. The CDC and Associated Press report that this season’s vaccination was among the least effective in decades, contributing to an intense early surge of illness. In adults 18 and older, vaccine effectiveness was about 22% to 34%, while children under 18 fared somewhat better at 38% to 41%-all at the lower end of the typical 40%-60% target.
The CDC estimated that from October 1, 2025, to February 28, 2026, there were about 26 million illnesses, 340,000 hospitalizations, and 21,000 deaths from influenza in the United States. Among those who died, at least 101 were children, with around 85% of those deaths occurring in children not fully vaccinated against the flu. Despite the low efficacy, health officials still strongly recommend vaccination because it can reduce medically attended illnesses and hospitalizations. By February 21, 2026, fewer than half of U.S. adults and children had received the 2025-26 influenza vaccine, but past seasons show that even with modest effectiveness, vaccines have prevented thousands of hospitalizations and deaths. For example, the 2022-23 season had about 30% effectiveness but still prevented tens of thousands of hospitalizations and thousands of deaths.
The good news: As the weather is turning warmer, flu season is officially headed off a cliff.
The bad news: The efficacy of the flu vaccine is also, apparently, falling off a cliff.
In an alarming admission from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, officials admitted that this most recent round of flu vaccinations proved to be the least effective in quite some time.
According to the Associated Press, the primary reason for this was a new strain of influenza that “was not well matched to the vaccine.” This apparently contributed to an “intense early onslaught” of the illness.
(This new strain apparently spread more easily, as opposed to exhibiting worse symptoms.)
The CDC’s report painted a bleak picture for adults who had been vaccinated against the flu.
Among adults over 18 years old, the flu vaccine’s effectiveness hovered around 22 to 34 percent.
While children under 18 fared a bit better (38 to 41 percent effectiveness), all of the numbers sit on the lower end of the scale that health officials shoot for, per the Associated Press.
“Officials generally are pleased if a flu vaccine is 40% to 60% effective,” the outlet noted. “Judging from past CDC research, this season saw one of the lowest effectiveness rates in the last two decades.”
The CDC estimated that “at least 26,000,000 illnesses, 340,000 hospitalizations, and 21,000 deaths resulting from influenza occurred in the United States during October 1, 2025–February 28, 2026.”
Among those broader statistics, the Associated Press noted that at “least 101 children have died so far this season.”
The outlet added that about 85 percent of those deaths involved children not fully vaccinated against the flu (among those whose vaccination status was known).
Despite the less-than-ideal efficacy levels, the CDC still strongly recommends getting the flu vaccine, as it can help reduce the risk of flu-related outpatient visits and hospitalizations.
“As of February 21, 2026, fewer than one half of U.S. adults and children had received a 2025–26 influenza vaccine,” the CDC said. “Influenza vaccination can prevent medically attended illnesses and serious disease that might result in hospitalization or death.”
The government entity also implored people that even when vaccine effectiveness is lower than the ideal, “influenza vaccination has prevented thousands of hospitalizations and deaths.”
The CDC then claimed that in the 2022-23 flu season, vaccine effectiveness was just 30 percent, “yet influenza vaccines prevented an estimated 71,000 hospitalizations and 4,300 deaths.”
The flu vaccine is not guaranteed to protect everyone from getting sick, though it can purportedly lessen the effects of influenza.
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