The White House’s stated objectives behind its decision to join Israel to launch an attack on the now-late ayatollah are four-fold: to destroy Iran’s missile capabilities, annihilate its navy, prevent it from ever developing the nuclear weapons it was on the cusp of creating after last summer’s Operation Midnight Hammer, and to forever inhibit its ability to fund regional proxy terrorist organizations such as Hamas, the Houthis, and Hezbollah.

For global investors, that last objective is arguably the most important because it’s a reminder that in the near term, Iran struck first, bringing real dangers to the world economy.

Foreign policy experts estimate that from the battlefield to its terrorist proxies, Iran has killed some 1,000 Americans since 9/11. But it’s important to remember just how much damage Iran and its proxies have done to American lives and the world economy since Iran gave Hamas the green light to execute its terrorist attack against Israel on Oct. 7, 2023. In the immediate attack, Hamas murdered 46 American citizens and took another dozen hostage, the opening salvo in the current Middle East conflict and arguably a targeted act of war against the United States directly.

As consistent readers of the column will have known from the beginning, Iran’s decision to activate the Houthis to take over the Red Sea cut off the artery through which 15% of all seaborne trade once traversed, and its chokehold of the Suez Canal obstructed the passage of 30% of global container ship volume. Egypt estimates it has lost at least $13 billion in canal fees in the two years following Oct. 7. And even after Trump brokered the ceasefire between Israel and Hamas, the Suez Canal Authority estimated that only 45 ships were transiting the waterway each day, down from 70 per day before Oct. 7.

So where isolationist electeds and influencers see risk, the investors with actual money on the line view a potential for reward. At press time, all three major American stock indices are essentially flat from their market close before the launch of Operation Epic Fury, which the Pentagon has telegraphed will last weeks rather than months.

Oil prices have precipitously increased to more than 20% above their January baseline. But even in the market most directly impacted by the conflict, the blowback may be limited. Although Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps claims it has “complete control” of the Strait of Hormuz, through which one-fifth of all seaborne global oil trades traverse, U.S. Central Command claims that’s not quite the case. Tanker traffic has fallen 90% below last week’s baseline, but Trump has both pledged Navy support to secure tankers and shipping insurance from the International Development Finance Corporation.

Of course, thanks to previous U.S. actions aimed at restoring some security to the Red Sea, major global oil exporters like the Saudis have been able to reroute their outgoing supply from the Strait of Hormuz to the Red Sea. Furthermore, bringing the Strait of Hormuz to a standstill is a double-edged sword for the Iranians. Its patron, China, sources half of its oil imports through the waterway, and Iran’s own enfeebled economy relies on the trade.

The biggest tell that investors see the potential for long-term gain in short-term pain is in the U.S. dollar index, which is up nearly 1.5% since before the start of Epic Fury and up almost 3% since the nadir of Trump’s Greenland gambit in January. In firing against a foe that has terrorized the rest of the world, investors may see that the dollar has a little more muscle behind its value today.

TRUMP, FOREVER WARS, AND IRAQ SYNDROME

Whereas three-quarters of Americans told CBS they’d support the war if it remains limited to weeks, half oppose it persisting for months, and nearly 90% would oppose it going on for years. Investors may very well prove the same way, though Iran could be forced to end it before the spring turns into summer.

If the White House keeps its word and the new Gulf alliance brings an end to Iran’s reign of terror, King Dollar may stretch its dominance further than ever before.

Tiana Lowe Doescher (@TianaTheFirst) is an economics columnist for the Washington Examiner.