With Vice President JD Vance as a tiebreaker, Democrats would need to net four seats. That means defending all three of their competitive races in New Hampshire, Michigan, and Georgia while also flipping all three of the Republican-held seats in Maine, North Carolina, and Ohio, in addition to capturing a long-shot seat such as Texas or Iowa.

Here’s where the six most competitive 2026 Senate races stand based on early survey averages from RealClear Polling.

Seats held by Democrats

Georgia

Sen. Jon Ossoff (D-GA) is seeking a second term as the most vulnerable Democratic incumbent this cycle. Georgia Republicans are in the midst of a crowded and messy primary that has yet to see President Donald Trump become heavily involved. The contest is considered a toss-up by nonpartisan election forecasters.

Rep. Mike Collins (R-GA), the GOP front-runner based on recent surveys, has tied or slightly trailed Ossoff by an average of just over two points in head-to-head matchups. Rep. Buddy Carter (R-GA) is losing by slightly more, an average of 3.5 points, and former Tennessee football coach Derek Dooley trails by roughly six points.

Michigan

Sen. Gary Peters (D-MI) is retiring at the end of his second term. Former Michigan GOP Rep. Mike Rogers, who lost in 2024 to now-Sen. Elissa Slotkin (D-MI) is running another campaign and is the presumptive Republican nominee.

But the Democratic side remains a contentious three-way contest between Rep. Haley Stevens (D-MI), state Sen. Mallory McMorrow, and former Wayne County Health Director Abdul El-Sayed.

Early polling shows Stevens with a slight primary lead, followed by McMorrow, then El-Sayed. Rogers leads all three in head-to-head matchups, beating Stevens by 2.4 points, McMorrow by four points, and El-Sayad by 8.5 points.

The race is considered a toss-up.

New Hampshire

Sen. Jeanne Shaheen (D-NH) is retiring at the end of her third term from a seat that forecasters say leans Democratic. Rep. Chris Pappas (D-NH) is the presumptive Democratic nominee.

On the Republican side, it’s a two-man contest between former senators: John E. Sununu, former New Hampshire senator and brother of former Gov. Chris Sununu, and Scott Brown, a former Massachusetts senator. Establishment-backed Sununu currently leads by double digits.

In general election matchups, Pappas leads Sununu by an average of four points and Brown by 11 points.

Seats held by Republicans

Maine

Sen. Susan Collins (R-ME), the GOP’s most vulnerable incumbent, is seeking reelection to a sixth term for her toss-up seat. Democrats Graham Platner and Gov. Janet Mills are locked in a competitive two-person primary, where the establishment-backed governor maintains an average single-digit edge over the more liberal outsider.

Recent surveys suggest Collins has an average lead over Mills of just two points, but trails Platner by 2.5 points.

North Carolina

Sen. Thom Tillis (R-NC) is retiring at the end of his second term. The race is considered a toss-up and is likely to feature a general election between former Republican National Committee Chairman Michael Whatley and former North Carolina Gov. Roy Cooper.

Cooper maintains a single-digit lead over Whatley by an average of about 4.7 points.

Ohio

Sen. Jon Husted (R-OH) is running for reelection in a special election to serve the remainder of Vance’s term that ends in early 2028. Husted was appointed to the seat earlier in 2025 by Gov. Mike DeWine (R-OH). Forecasters rate the contest as leaning Republican.

Former Sen. Sherrod Brown (D-OH), who was ousted by Sen. Bernie Moreno (R-OH), is the presumptive Democratic nominee. Husted leads Brown by an average of just one point, well within the margins of error.