Texas GOP redistricting push gambling on Latino voters’ loyalty
The article discusses Texas Republicans’ strategy of leveraging increasing Latino voter support to push an ambitious redistricting plan that would substantially favor Republican congressional seats over Democratic ones. The proposed map aims to create 30 Republican districts compared to eight Democratic districts, a major shift from the current balance. This effort relies heavily on the assumption that Latino voters, who showed strong support for Donald Trump in the 2024 election-especially in heavily Hispanic areas like Starr County-will remain loyal to the Republican Party. Though, analysts caution that Trump’s personal appeal may not fully translate to sustained Republican support, noting that many Hispanic voters continue to split their tickets between Republican and Democratic candidates. The durability of Republican gains among hispanics will likely depend on economic conditions and whether Trump remains on the ballot in future elections. Despite these uncertainties, Republicans are optimistic given the rising Hispanic support for their party and the democratic Party’s declining approval ratings.
Texas Republicans’ redistricting push gambling on Latino voters’ loyalty
Texas Republicans are banking on Latino voters staying Republican as central to an ambitious redistricting plan.
On Wednesday, Republicans unveiled their proposed map for Texas, which would create 30 Republican congressional seats compared to eight Democratic districts — a major shift for the House, which has 25 Texas Republicans and 13 Democrats. This plan comes with some risk outside of wider concerns of retaliatory measures in blue states. The new map is heavily reliant on the most uncertain Republican voter base.
President Donald Trump saw remarkable gains among Hispanic voters in 2024 compared to 2020, winning 48% in 2024 compared to 36% in the previous election. This trend was best illustrated in Texas, including Starr County along the U.S.-Mexico border, the county with the highest percentage of Hispanics in the United States.
The county had voted for Democrats in every presidential election since 1892, usually by 80%-90%. Previously, the only outliers were Richard Nixon’s landslide in 1972 and the 2020 election, in which the Democratic share was in the 50% range. In November, Trump finally flipped the county with 57.7% of the vote.
Texas Republicans are counting on this trend to continue past the age of Trump.
“Hispanic communities are sick and tired of radical Democrats turning their backs on them time and again,” National Republican Congressional Committee Hispanic press secretary Christian Martinez told Politico.
Some analysts aren’t so sure, cautioning against conflating Trump’s gains with Hispanic voters and Republicans’ gains. Hispanics are much more likely to split their ticket, with many voting for Trump and Democratic candidates in 2024. Of the 13 congressional districts that elected Trump and a House Democrat, six were at least 40% Hispanic, with two of these in Texas. Trump outperformed Sen. Ted Cruz (R-TX) in counties that were at least 75% Hispanic by 8.6%.
“[Republicans] are confusing the gains that Trump the individual made with support for the Republican Party,” pollster Matt Barreto said. “There is a Trump effect that is not transferable to Republicans.”
With Trump off the ticket in 2026 and 2028, Republicans could see their gains with Hispanics recede. The biggest factor will be the economy’s performance, with Hispanics largely voting on economic issues.
DEMOCRATS REBUKE THE TRUMP-BACKED REDISTRICTING MAP IN TEXAS TO CUT OUT BLUE SEATS
“In Texas in particular, Hispanic voters are more loyal to their paychecks and Texas than they are to a party,” former Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee Executive Director Dan Sena said. “That’s part of the appeal of Trump. But when he’s not on the ticket, some of that support erodes.”
Despite the risk, Republicans do have plenty of reasons to remain optimistic. The share of Hispanics voting for Republicans shot from 29% in 2018 to 43% in 2024, according to Catalist data. And the Democratic Party has continued its downward spiral in ratings, with some polls giving the party its lowest approval rating in modern history.
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