Straight-Shooting CNN Analyst Shares Midterm Warning Signs: Dems Could Take the Senate
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Democrats’ odds to win back the U.S.senate in the 2026 midterms have risen, according to CNN senior data analyst Harry Enten who cites Kalshi prediction markets. The Democrats’ chances climbed from 28% in January to about 46%, while republicans remained favored to retain the Senate at roughly 53%; the rise is real but hasn’t yet pushed the democrats over the 50% mark.
The same analysis suggests Democrats have a strong shot to recapture the House as well (about an 84% chance per Kalshi), though the senate scenario remains more competitive. Enten described the trajectory as rising “on a stairway to heaven,” noting that the odds are clearly increasing even if not yet at a majority.
separately, public opinion on President Trump is largely negative among independents and the broader electorate. Enten cited that 78% of independents and 60% of all voters believe Trump is focusing on the wrong issues, with Trump’s net approval among independents notably low (-38 points) in his second term. Polls cited also show that voters prioritized the economy and immigration in the 2024 election, with disapproval of Trump on the economy at about 57% (RealClearPolitics average) and 54% disapproval on immigration (NBC News poll).
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CNN senior data analyst Harry Enten warned on Wednesday that Democrats have increased their chances of taking back the Senate after the 2026 midterms.Democrats’ chances of taking back the Senate rose from 28 percent in January to their current 46 percent, Enten said, citing Kalshi prediction markets.
Their chances have grown while President Donald Trump’s net approval among independents has plummeted during his second term.
“OK, so, you know, look, we’ve been talking about the House and pretty much every historical market, all the prediction markets, all the polling indicates that the Democrats are in the catbird seat when it comes back to taking back the House,” Enten said.
“But how about combining it with the United States Senate? That is taking back the whole enchilada, taking back all of Congress.”
“And what we see is the Democrats chance of doing that has been rising, rising, rising on a stairway to heaven, my dear friend. And what we see there is that Democrats at this particular point have been increasing those odds. It’s not yet at 50 percent, but it is clearly rising,” Enten continued.
Democrats also held an 84% chance of reclaiming control of the House as of Wednesday, according to Kalshi. The Senate was in the Republicans’ favor, as the party held a 53 percent chance of holding onto control of the chamber.
Trump’s net approval rating with independent voters stood at -38 points as of Wednesday, which is lower than former Presidents George W. Bush’s -26 points and Barack Obama’s -18 points at the same point into their second terms.
Enten said that the vast majority of independents, 78 percent, and 60 percent of overall voters believe Trump is focusing on the wrong issues.
“What don’t independents like? What don’t the overall electorate like? Are you focusing on the right issues?” Enten said.
“Are you focusing on what people actually care about? And if you look right now, you look at a Fox News poll that recently came out. Look at this, [those who] say the Trump admin is focused on the wrong things. 60 percent overall say that the Trump administration is focused on the wrong thing. Look at that. Seventy-eight percent of independents say that the Trump administration is focused on the wrong things.”
Voters prioritized the economy and immigration in the 2024 election, which ultimately led to Trump’s victory. Trump was underwater on the economy with a 57.1 percent disapproval rating, according to a RealClearPolitics poll average.
Fifty-four percent of Americans also disapproved of Trump’s handling on immigration, while 44 percent approved, according to an NBC News poll from Sunday.
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