2024 Senate races crucial for Schumer’s power grip
The Race for Control of the U.S. Senate in 2024: Republicans Plot Their Strategy
The battle for control of the U.S. Senate in 2024 is already underway, with Republicans strategizing on how to flip the chamber. With a total of 34 Senate seats up for grabs, Democrats face the challenge of defending 23 seats, while Republicans only need to defend 11. The majority of competitive seats are currently held by Democrats, putting them on the defensive as Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer fights to maintain his slim majority.
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Currently, Democrats and their independent allies hold 51 seats in the chamber. Of the Senate Democrats up for reelection, seven are in states that voted for former President Donald Trump in either the 2016 or 2020 elections, or both. On the other hand, there are no Republican seats up for grabs in states won by either Hillary Clinton in 2016 or President Joe Biden in 2020.
The retirement announcement of Sen. Joe Manchin (D-WV) in mid-November has made the 2024 landscape even more challenging for Senate Democrats. Without a long-standing incumbent, Republicans now have a prime opportunity to gain a seat in the Senate, as West Virginia has been leaning towards the GOP.
Senate Republicans are also closely watching the race in New Jersey, where indicted Sen. Bob Menendez (D-NJ) is up for reelection. While the state traditionally leans blue, Menendez’s federal prosecution could create an opening for Republicans to make the race more competitive.
Here are the seven pivotal Senate races to watch in 2024 that will determine which party controls the upper chamber:
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Montana
Incumbent: Sen. Jon Tester (D-MT)
Tester’s seat is a top target for Republicans aiming to turn the state red. Despite holding the seat since 2007, Tester has proven to be a formidable candidate for Republicans to defeat.
Former Navy SEAL Tim Sheehy and former Montana Secretary of State Brad Johnson have already entered the race as GOP candidates. Rep. Matt Rosendale (R-MT) has expressed interest but has not officially declared his intentions.
Sheehy, recruited by the National Republican Senatorial Committee, has garnered endorsements from Sens. Steve Daines (R-MT), Tom Cotton (R-AK), Marsha Blackburn (R-TN), and John Thune (R-SD), as well as Gov. Greg Gianforte (R-MT).
Although Trump won Montana by a smaller margin in 2020 compared to 2016, national Republicans highlight Democratic losses in state legislative races as evidence of a potential shift towards the GOP.
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Ohio
Incumbent: Sen. Sherrod Brown (D-OH)
Brown faces his toughest reelection campaign yet in a state that has been trending red over the past decade.
All eyes are on Republican businessman Bernie Moreno, who recently received an endorsement from Trump in the Ohio Senate primary.
Competing against Moreno are Ohio Secretary of State Frank LaRose and state Sen. Matt Dolan, both of whom have distanced themselves from Trump in their Senate bids.
Trump’s endorsement played a crucial role in helping now-Sen. J.D. Vance win last year’s GOP primary. Regardless of the GOP nominee, the general election will be a highly contested race as Brown works to overcome a reliably red electorate.
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Arizona
Incumbent: Sen. Kyrsten Sinema (I-AZ)
Less than a year before a major election in one of the nation’s premier battleground states, experts from both sides agree on one thing: the outcome of Arizona’s Senate race in 2024 is uncertain.
The race could feature Sinema, who left her party to become an independent, Rep. Ruben Gallego (D-AZ), the likely Democratic nominee, and Republican Kari Lake, a polarizing conservative who lost the gubernatorial election last year. This could result in a three-way race in a state with a nearly equal distribution of Republicans, independents, and Democrats.
Sinema has not confirmed if she will run for a second term after leaving the Democratic Party. Lake will first need to defeat Pinal County Sheriff Mark Lamb in the GOP primary.
The NRSC is attempting to sway the GOP electorate away from Sinema and Gallego with a new ad titled “A Choice.” The ad claims Sinema votes with the president “100%” of the time, ignoring the challenges she has posed to President Joe Biden’s agenda. It also targets Gallego, delving into his personal life and divorce from Phoenix Mayor Kate Gallego. The messaging suggests national Republicans want to transform the race into a battle between a Republican and two Democrats.
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Pennsylvania
Incumbent: Sen. Bob Casey (D-PA)
Sen. Bob Casey is about to face his toughest reelection battle yet. Republicans have rallied around former hedge fund executive Dave McCormick, who entered the race in September.
McCormick’s candidacy is seen as a win for Senate Republicans, who have been actively recruiting him to challenge Casey. Casey, a three-term senator, won by a significant margin in 2018. Last cycle, McCormick narrowly lost the Senate primary to celebrity doctor Mehmet Oz, who was then defeated by Sen. John Fetterman (D-PA) in the general election. This prompted GOP leadership to focus on McCormick running again, recognizing him as their best chance to flip Casey’s seat.
McCormick’s candidacy will test whether Republicans can win in a battleground state that had both Republican and Democratic senators for over a decade until Sen. Pat Toomey retired in January. Casey is among a group of five Senate Democrats representing states that Biden won by less than 4 percentage points in 2020.
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Nevada
Incumbent: Sen. Jacky Rosen (D-NV)
Despite Nevada leaning slightly more Democratic than other states on this list, Republicans view it as a potential pickup opportunity after Biden won the state by a narrow margin.
Republicans will have a competitive primary, although the NRSC has expressed support for Army veteran Sam Brown as the 2024 GOP nominee. Brown ran in the primary last cycle but lost to Adam Laxalt, who was then defeated by incumbent Sen. Catherine Cortez Masto (D-NV) by a mere 8,000 votes.
Brown will face off against Trump’s former ambassador to Iceland, Jeff Gunter, retired Air Force Lt. Col. Tony Grady, former state Assemblyman Jim Marchant, and four other Republicans in the race.
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Wisconsin
Incumbent: Sen. Tammy Baldwin (D-WI)
National Republicans have set their sights on Baldwin’s seat in Wisconsin, a highly competitive battleground state that swung from Trump to Biden in 2020. They believe they have found a credible candidate in businessman Eric Hovde, who is expected to announce his run in early 2024 after being courted by the NRSC for months. Businessman Scott Mayer and former Sheriff David Clarke are also considering a run.
Baldwin has yet to face an official challenger, which may indicate that Republicans are not as optimistic about their chances of winning the Senate seat in this Midwestern state, which will host the 2024 Republican National Convention in Milwaukee.
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Michigan
Incumbent: Sen. Debbie Stabenow (D-MI) is retiring.
Michigan has not been as favorable for Republicans in recent years, with Biden winning the state by 3 points. Democrats also saw success in the 2022 elections.
On the Democratic side, Rep. Elissa Slotkin has garnered the majority of the party’s support. Slotkin will face a primary challenge from actor Hill Harper, former state Rep. Leslie Love, and two other Democrats.
Republican Mike Rogers, a former congressman and House Intelligence Committee leader, appears to be the favorite in the primary race.
These seven swing Senate races will determine the fate of the upper chamber and which party will hold control. Stay tuned for updates on these crucial contests.
Click here to read more from The Washington Examiner.
Who are some potential Republican candidates in the Georgia Senate race?
Incumbent: Sen. Raphael Warnock (D-GA) The Georgia Senate race in 2020 was closely watched and highly contentious. Now, Sen. Raphael Warnock is up for reelection in 2024, and Republicans are determined to reclaim the seat. The GOP primary in Georgia will be closely contested, with several high-profile candidates vying for the nomination. Former Sen. Kelly Loeffler, who lost to Warnock in the runoff election, has not ruled out a rematch. Other potential candidates include Rep. Buddy Carter, former Rep. Doug Collins, and Georgia Attorney General Chris Carr. The outcome of the Georgia Senate race will be crucial in determining which party holds the majority in the chamber. Republicans will be looking to take advantage of the state’s historically conservative leanings and the potential for voter fatigue after two consecutive Senate elections. Incumbent: Sen. Richard Burr (R-NC) (retiring) With Sen. Richard Burr announcing his retirement, the race for the open seat in North Carolina has become a top priority for both parties. Several Republican candidates have already entered the race, including former Gov. Pat McCrory, Rep. Ted Budd, and former Rep. Mark Walker. On the Democratic side, former state Supreme Court Chief Justice Cheri Beasley and state Sen. Jeff Jackson are among the contenders. North Carolina has a history of closely contested Senate races, and the outcome in 2024 will likely be no different. Both parties will invest heavily in this race as they vie for control of the Senate. The race for control of the U.S. Senate in 2024 is a high-stakes battle that will shape the direction of the country for years to come. With Republicans only needing to defend 11 seats compared to Democrats’ 23, the odds are in their favor. However, Democrats are not backing down, and they will fight tooth and nail to maintain their slim majority. The seven pivotal Senate races highlighted above will be closely watched by political analysts and pundits as they determine which party controls the upper chamber. Republicans have strategically chosen states where they have a chance to flip seats, while Democrats face the challenge of defending their incumbents in states that voted for Trump in recent elections. The outcome of these races will depend on several factors, including candidate strength, fundraising abilities, and the political climate leading up to the election. Republicans will be looking to capitalize on their momentum and build on their successes in the 2022 midterms, while Democrats will be working to mobilize their base and appeal to undecided voters. Ultimately, the race for control of the U.S. Senate in 2024 will come down to the wire. Both parties understand the importance of this election and will leave no stone unturned in their quest for victory. The outcome will shape the legislative agenda, confirmations of key appointments, and the future of American politics.Georgia
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