Senator Believes Russia’s Inept Handling of Ukraine War Will Discourage China From Invading Taiwan

The ineptitude displayed by Russia’s military throughout the first four weeks of its invasion of Ukraine could lead China to reconsider its plans for Taiwan, Sen. Jack Reed, the chairman of the Senate Armed Services Committee, believes.

The chairman warned during a Wednesday event with the Defense Writers Group that China is “constantly rethinking, reevaluating, readjusting” its policy toward Taiwan, though he noted that Beijing is likely looking at Russia’s stumbles and wondering if it would have the same fate in a future military conflict.

“China is looking at Russia, too, and they’re beginning to ask questions,” Reed explained. “I think the Chinese leadership also has the suspicion that their military has not been involved in a major combat since the Korean War … it has not been tested, and they might be getting second thoughts about, ‘How reliable will our forces be if we do that?'”

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The United States and Russia both underestimated Ukraine’s military capabilities, which have not only kept Russian forces out of key cities but recaptured cities taken by Russians earlier in the conflict. Pentagon spokesman John Kirby noted on Tuesday that Russia has “not achieved any of the strategic objectives.”

Chinese leaders are “constantly evaluating the response of the Pacific power — the United States, Australia, Japan, etc. — to their reaction,” the chairman continued. “So obviously, they are looking at this closely, and I think it will be a lesson that, I think it’s one that they will absorb and continue to have a significant focus on Taiwan.”

The Chinese have been placed in a difficult position, having released a communique with Russia that outlined a wide range of plans for economic and diplomatic cooperation last month, while Russia has since become an international pariah. While China claims to promote “peace” between Russia and Ukraine, it has simultaneously been amplifying Russian disinformation claims of justification.

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“We’ve seen, basically, through statements, some at least tacit approval by the Chinese for what Russia was doing,” Kirby said earlier this month. “Now, in the last few days, some of their Foreign Ministry spokespeople have appeared to walk some of this back a little bit by talking about Ukrainian sovereignty, which is welcome to see. But we haven’t seen China join the list of countries that have enacted sanctions on Russia. We haven’t seen the Chinese blame Mr. Putin for the violence he is causing.”

President Joe Biden and Chinese President Xi Jinping spoke at length last week. The Chinese government’s readout contained no criticism of Russia but claimed, “China stands for peace and opposes war.”

The Chinese government maintains that Taiwan is a part of the mainland, while the Taiwanese claim independence and have their own government. The U.S. has not recognized Taiwan’s independence since normalizing relations with the mainland, though it has provided support to prevent a Chinese attack.