Van Epps’s win, however, is not likely to completely put GOP concerns over their 2026 election prospects to rest given how slim his victory was compared to President Donald Trump, who won the district in 2024 by over 20 points, and Green, who won with 59.5% of the vote.

The Republican’s victory comes after a stressful few months of campaigning in the general election. Despite a resounding victory in the GOP’s October primary and a strong endorsement from Trump, polling showed Van Epps with only a 2-point lead, well within the poll’s margin of error, heading into Tuesday’s contest.

The close race had many Republicans worried despite House Republican leadership insisting behind closed doors that the race was in their hands. A senior House Republican told Politico that a single-digit victory margin would cause the conference to become “unhinged.”

And had Behn won, it would have been the fourth-biggest special election flip in the last 20 years.

Democrats seized on the single-digit margin by which Matt Van Epps won, calling it a “five-alarm fire” for the GOP.

“Tonight’s results make it clear: No House Republican’s reelection should be considered safe next November. National Republicans were forced to pull out all the stops, spending nearly $4 million and investing in a massive turnout operation, all to salvage their candidate in a district that voted for Trump by 22% last year,” House Majority PAC spokesman CJ Warnke said.

Van Epps’s victory comes after heavy Republican losses in the 2025 elections in November, which saw the party lose both the Virginia and New Jersey governor’s races. Republicans have long insisted that special elections are not indicative of performances in the midterm elections due to a historical lack of turnout in off-year contests.

But an outright win for Democrats would have fueled the party’s momentum even more heading into 2026, when Democrats hope to narrow the Republicans’ already razor-thin majority in the House.

Currently, the House majority sits at 219 Republicans to 213 Democrats, so Johnson can only afford to lose two GOP votes to still pass legislation along party lines. With Van Epps’s win, the margin stays the same — giving Johnson some grace heading into the new year, especially with a Jan. 31 funding deadline right around the corner.

Prior to the election, national support from both parties flooded the scene. The election has brought in millions of dollars in spending from outside groups, with nearly $4 million being spent since the primaries. Approximately $2.5 million came from Republicans and allied groups.

FOUR QUESTIONS WAITING TO BE ANSWERED IN TENNESSEE RACE BETWEEN MATT VAN EPPS AND AFTYN BEHN

Behn was hoping to ride a blue wave that came from the Democrats’ victories in New York City, Virginia, and New Jersey. The three Democratic candidates, two centrist and one progressive, all focused heavily on affordability — a move that paid off for them as the economy sharpens into the top issue facing voters heading into 2026.

But Green won his seat with 59.5% of the vote and Trump carried the seat by over 20 points in 2024, so Behn faced an uphill battle to victory.