Despite the danger, Washington looks set on warm relations with Damascus. This was symbolically demonstrated in a ceremony attended by Syrian Foreign Minister Asaad al Shaibani, in which U.S. Ambassador to Turkey and Special Envoy to Syria Tom Barrack raised the U.S. flag above the U.S. ambassador’s residence in the capital.

The United States signaled in December that it had no plans to reopen its embassy. A change in leadership may change Washington’s calculus, with last month’s ceremony indicating the possibility of its reopening.

The Washington Examiner spoke with Ret. Army Col. Seth Krummrich, VP of client risk management at Global Guardian, a global threat assessment company. Global Guardian carries out security assessments for Fortune 1000 clients operating in dangerous regions and conducts evacuations from hot spots worldwide. It evacuated thousands of people from Ukraine after Russia’s invasion in February 2022.

Krummrich spent 28 years in the U.S. Special Forces, focusing on the Middle East, Central Asia, and the Horn of Africa. During his career, he worked on threat assessments for U.S. embassies in embattled areas.

The U.S. first opened an embassy in Syria in 1952. It became a particularly dangerous spot during the War on Terror and was attacked by armed assailants in 2006, though no embassy personnel were killed.

The beginning of protests against the regime of President Bashar al-Assad in 2011 tightened the noose around the embassy, with the U.S. expressing a clear preference for the protesters-turned-rebels. In July of that year, a pro-Assad mob stormed the embassy compound, breaking windows and spraying graffiti while police stood by. U.S. Marine guards dispersed the crowd before they could harm embassy personnel.

The embassy was reduced to a skeleton crew until being fully evacuated in February 2012, following the escalation of violence into an all-out civil war.

In the event of a return to the embassy, the U.S. will likely first return to a skeleton crew, Krummrich said. The reopened embassy will likely focus on core diplomatic functions, with a diplomatic liaison to the Syrian government, along with some military, economic, and information functions.

“I highly doubt any families will be joining the diplomats, for example, that will be going there. It will not be what they refer to as an accompanied mission. I’m sure this is going to be a hardship tour for whoever gets to go,” he said. “When you’ve got high-risk or extreme-risk areas, the Department of State is prudent in how they rate those, so you’re going to have less people there, and therefore the number of actual security personnel are going to vary.”

Security at embassies is usually a combination of U.S. and contracted security, with the contracted personnel usually being foreigners. He used the example of Bahrain, where the U.S. hires Gurkhas as guards. Local law enforcement often supplements the security forces as well.

Locals are also used for intelligence, analyzing threat levels, and helping to supplement security.

Washington has “done a very solid job of investing in structural support” for embassies in high-risk areas, Krummrich said. An effort was launched about 20 years ago to standardize embassy security, covering everything from riot control to minimum gate requirements.

Before security personnel are even assembled, the U.S. will need to take a detailed look at the situation, both the wider political context and the immediate physical concerns around the embassy.

“When you look at the embassy, I would start with the physical structure of it. Before we’re going to put diplomats in our U.S. footprint in that embassy, we need to know everything about those buildings and how physical security has got to be assessed and surveyed and validated. We have teams that go do that. They do a great job,” Krummrich said.

The level of detail goes beyond a simple overview — every nook and cranny of the compound is surveyed and mapped.

“To talk about the level of detail, you need to know everything about that building. I’m talking about where the door hinges are, what kind of doors they are, what kind of locks are on the doors. It has to be this extremely robust review of the facility before you start putting in your diplomatic cable gear, any sort of sensitive equipment,” Krummrich said. 

“I used to call it a post-mortem planning tabletop exercise. If there was to be failure at the embassy, what would create failure, and then work backwards from there,” he continued. “You have to look at it from the perspective of, what would it take to have a successful evacuation or hostage rescue happen from this facility? That would need to happen before you put diplomats in; you have to make sure that the physical security is completely understood.”

Security assessments must also extend beyond the embassy compound and immediate surroundings.

“What do the traffic patterns look like in Damascus? If we had to do an evacuation, what are the multiple routes out to say, airfield or border crossings? What does the traffic look like? What would hinder us in this situation? What would the threat picture look like? Where are the closest potential helicopter landing zones like?” Krummrich outlined. 

Understanding every contingency plan before moving diplomats in is key, Krummrich said. Otherwise, you risk “Benghazi part two.”

As for a timeline of opening the embassy back up, it depends on a multitude of factors. The flag raising at the ambassador’s residence could have been more than just a symbolic move, Krummrich noted.

“You raise the flag up to get a temperature check. Okay, how is this going to be received, right?” he said. “Do people notice it? Do people cheer? Or you start receiving incoming fire?

“It’s baby steps. So the first step, run the flag up, see what happens. And then, based on that, you can start to get an understanding of what this is going to look like. We have to look at this from a long-term approach,” Krummrich added. 

Wider strategic calculations are likely to be a central part of the Trump administration’s considerations as to when to open the embassy.

US FLAG RAISED IN DAMASCUS, SYRIA, FOR FIRST TIME SINCE 2012

“The Trump administration could look at it and go, ‘Hey, I actually think there is a bit of a foot race geopolitically with Russia or China here. We actually need to move faster. We need to make this a priority. So, hey, let’s get this thing stood up, because we want to take advantage of… this opportunity,’” he said, noting Syria’s strategic and geographical importance.

“The last thing we need is another unstable state like poor Lebanon, which is always struggling to keep their nose above water,” Krummrich said. “If we can get in and establish a foothold, be able to put… some of the Syrian growth to being U.S.-friendly, then we’re making huge gains there.”