Red Wave Growing: Ten More Races Move in Favor of Republicans
Despite proclamations of a Democrat “comeback” during the summer, it was always only a matter of time before pollsters and analysts started to “correct” the record just before the election. Sure, they pushed absolute garbage for months, misleading the public in order to prop up a partisan narrative, but now, they’ve got to make sure they get things somewhat right before the votes are actually cast. Their future credibility depends on it.
That’s the game we seem to play every election cycle, where polling shows Democrats surging when it’s hot outside but fading as the leaves begin to change. It’s almost like there are predictable ebbs and flows to election cycles, specifically mid-terms (presidential elections are far harder to predict). But nah, those fundamentals couldn’t be taken into account in the face of Morning Consult polls showing Democrats up seven points with two months to go.
So here we stand, less than three weeks before election day, and the shift is happening with fury. We’ve already seen articles from CNN and The Hill warning of a coming Republican victory. Now, even some Democrat election analysts are getting in on the act. Politico is moving races toward the GOP faster than one can reasonably keep up with. Meanwhile, Doug Schoen is outright saying the red wave cometh.
🚨 POLITICO: Ten races out of 12 are moving toward Republicans
CA 13: Lean D to Toss Up
OR 06: Lean D to Toss Up
OR 05: Lean D to Toss Up
OR 04: Likely D to Lean D
WI 03: Lean R to Likely R
MI 10: Lean R to Likely R
FL 15: Lean R to Likely Rhttps://t.co/2UlSzqEied
— InteractivePolls (@IAPolls2022) October 19, 2022
🚨 POLITICO: Ten races out of 12 are moving toward Republicans
CA 13: Lean D to Toss Up
OR 06: Lean D to Toss Up
OR 05: Lean D to Toss Up
OR 04: Likely D to Lean D
WI 03: Lean R to Likely R
MI 10: Lean R to Likely R
FL 15: Lean R to Likely Rhttps://t.co/2UlSzqEied
— InteractivePolls (@IAPolls2022) October 19, 2022
WSJ: Democrat Pollster Doug Schoen Says To ‘Brace For A Republican Wave‘
‘The Republican Party is on the cusp of a substantial midterm election victory that could rival their wins in 1994 and 2010‘https://t.co/U91BHEtcmo pic.twitter.com/LMubdYcWkF
— InteractivePolls (@IAPolls2022) October 19, 2022
WSJ: Democrat Pollster Doug Schoen Says To ‘Brace For A Republican Wave‘
‘The Republican Party is on the cusp of a substantial midterm election victory that could rival their wins in 1994 and 2010‘https://t.co/U91BHEtcmo pic.twitter.com/LMubdYcWkF
— InteractivePolls (@IAPolls2022) October 19, 2022
If only someone had predicted this many months ago, we wouldn’t have been so caught off-guard by these last-minute changes. But I digress, this should have been seen as inevitable to anyone paying attention. That’s not some blind proclamation whereby I’m just getting lucky. This is an election cycle that historically and fundamentally favors the Republican Party. Those that chose to ignore that in order to overdose on hopium did themselves a disservice.
And to be sure, if a Republican retakes the White House in 2024, I won’t be predicting Republicans to do well in 2026 unless there’s some cataclysmic level of data showing otherwise. Why? Because I’m honest enough to understand that’s not how it works. First-term mid-terms are bloodbaths for the in-power party for a reason, and the data surrounding the 2022 cycle never suggested an actual toss-up race. Instead, there were moments where you could believe Republicans might not do quite as well as projected, but a red wave of some height was always the most likely outcome.
Now, that
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