Main Surprise: Potential Upsets by Current Leaders

Incumbents typically enjoy an advantage against challengers in primaries, but in several races this year many incumbents in the House and Senate are under threat of losing their seat before getting to the general election.

As with past election cycles, several members of Congress on both sides of the aisle are in danger of losing their seats to more centrist or hard-line members of their parties. Here are three of the House members who could be in danger of losing their seats and recent examples that could give insight into how each member could fare.

Rep. Bob Good (R-VA)

Good has represented Virginia’s 5th Congressional District since 2021 after ousting former Rep. Denver Riggleman in the 2020 nominating contest by running to his right. Next month, Good will face a primary challenge in which voters in his district will pick him or state Sen. John McGuire.

The challenge Good faces comes after he voted to oust former Rep. Kevin McCarthy from the speakership in October 2023 and endorsed Gov. Ron DeSantis (R-FL) over Donald Trump in the GOP presidential primary. Good switched his endorsement to the former president after DeSantis dropped out in January.

Good, the head of the House Freedom Caucus, has received support from Reps. Chip Roy (R-TX), Andy Biggs (R-AZ), and Matt Gaetz (R-FL), among others, while McGuire, has garnered endorsements from Reps. Jen Kiggans (R-VA), Mike Rogers (R-AL), Austin Scott (R-GA), and Marjorie Taylor Greene (R-GA).

Trump has not weighed into the primary with an endorsement, but both men attended Trump’s hush money trial Thursday in Manhattan as a show of support for the former president, whose endorsement has been critical in various races. A poll released earlier this month by Cardinal News shows McGuire leading Good, 45%-31%.

The primary is scheduled for June 18 and could be a reversal of the 2020 primary, in which Republicans in the district voted for the more conservative challenger to compete in the general election. The district is considered “solid Republican” by the Cook Political Report.

Rep. Tony Gonzales (R-TX)

Gonzales, a centrist, has represented Texas’s 23rd Congressional District since 2021. He is facing a primary runoff from YouTuber Brandon Herrera, who is running to Gonzales’s right.

The race Gonzales finds himself in is a battle between the party establishment and the forces pulling him to its right. Incumbents tend to keep their seats unless caught off guard by more conservative challengers, such as when then-House Majority Leader Eric Cantor lost his primary in an upset in 2014.

Gonzales has the backing of House Speaker Mike Johnson (R-LA), Gov. Greg Abbott (R-TX), and Lt. Gov. Dan Patrick (R-TX), while Herrera has endorsements from Gaetz, Biggs, Good, and Rep. Eli Crane (R-AZ).

The incumbent has the fundraising advantage and won 45.1% of the initial vote, compared to Herrera’s 24.6% in the March primary.

The runoff between the two is scheduled for May 28. The district is considered “solid Republican” by the Cook Political Report, with a partisan voting index of Republican +5.

Rep. Jamaal Bowman (D-NY)

Bowman, a member of the progressive “Squad,” has represented New York’s 16th Congressional District since 2021 after he ousted longtime centrist Democratic Rep. Eliot Engel, but he could lose to a centrist challenger next month.

Westchester County Executive George Latimer is challenging Bowman for his deeply blue district, making Israel the chief issue separating the two. Bowman has been one of the most vocal critics of Israel, while Latimer has been supported by various pro-Israel groups.

During a debate between the two earlier this month, Latimer also criticized the congressman over some of his conduct while serving in Congress the past three years, alluding to an incident when he got into a shouting match with Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene (R-GA) on the Capitol steps.

Bowman has the support of House Democratic leadership, but the congressman’s stance on the war in Gaza will be a key test in the primary contest.

CLICK HERE TO READ MORE FROM THE WASHINGTON EXAMINER

A poll released last month and conducted for the Democratic Majority for Israel, a group supporting Latimer, showed Bowman trailing his challenger by 17 percentage points. Latimer had a 52%-35% lead over Bowman in the poll among Democratic primary voters in the district.

The Democratic primary between the two is scheduled for June 25. The district is considered “solid Democrat” by the Cook Political Report, with a partisan voting index of Democrat +21.