Trump has been relentless in his verbal attacks on Powell, who he has called a “numbskull” and a “fool who doesn’t have a clue.” Trump has mused about firing Powell and said talking to him is like talking to a brick wall.

“We want to get rid of inflation, and we have. But we’re going to be paying more for debt,” Trump added, making his case for lower rates. “All he has to do is lower [interest rates]. Europe has done 10 lowerings, we’ve done none.”

However, Powell, who Trump originally nominated for the position in 2018, has shown a willingness to stick to what he believes is best rather than what the president wants, and could do so again by holding interest rates steady.

“I think they’re going to do nothing,” economist David Madland from the liberal think tank Center for American Progress predicted. “I think they’re going to hold steady. They’ve been sending those kinds of signals.”

Investors see it as a 99.9% probability that the Fed will hold its interest rate target steady, according to the CME Group’s FedWatch tool, which calculates the probability using futures contract prices for rates in the short-term market targeted by the Fed.

Given Trump’s real estate background, it’s natural that he advocates lower interest rates, which make mortgages more affordable and development projects easier to finance. He also says lower rates will make U.S. debt payments more affordable and likely fears that a prolonged period of high interest rates could trigger a damaging recession.

However, Powell has a different set of priorities. The Fed’s dual mandate is to maximize employment and keep inflation low and stable. That second goal, keeping inflation low, set Powell on a series of interest rate hikes during the Biden administration and drove his cautiousness so far in Trump’s second term.

Trump is far from the first president to push for lower interest rates, but his unorthodox style and zeal take it into another realm that has alarmed his critics.

“Most presidents try to influence the Federal Reserve chairman to do things that make the economy better for them and their political prospects,” Madland said. “But I think Trump is crossing the line and really entering dangerous territory.”

For all of the economic uncertainty created by Trump’s tariffs, inflation has been tamed so far, reaching 2.1% in April, virtually even with the Fed’s 2% target. Inflation peaked at 7.2% in the summer of 2022, in the Fed’s preferred gauge, before falling throughout the second half of former President Joe Biden’s term.

The Fed cut rates by a full percentage point last year, but opted to hold interest rates steady at 4.25% to 4.50% following its January meeting and has kept rates steady since then, despite pressure from the Trump administration to make further cuts.

Powell remains concerned about tariffs and said they could spike inflation as their full effect is felt.

“Near-term measures of inflation expectations have moved up, as reflected in both market- and survey-based measures,” Powell said at a press conference in May. “Survey respondents, including consumers, businesses, and professional forecasters, point to tariffs as the driving factor.”

Trump and Powell also met at the White House in May. The Fed said in a brief statement that it discussed “economic developments, including for growth, employment, and inflation.”

“Chair Powell did not discuss his expectations for monetary policy, except to stress that the path of policy will depend entirely on incoming economic information and what that means for the outlook,” the statement said.

However, Trump warned that Powell not lowering interest rates “is putting us at an economic disadvantage to China and other countries.”

“The president has been very vocal about that, both publicly and, now I can reveal, privately,” White House press secretary Karoline Leavitt said following the meeting.

While Trump has said he will not fire Powell, some of his critics fear he could go back on his word, and that his statements already represent interference with the Fed’s mission.

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Markets need to trust that the Fed is independent in order to keep long-term interest rates down, according to Ian Fletcher, an advisory board member at the Coalition for a Prosperous America. Fletcher pointed to the example of former President Richard Nixon, who pressured his Fed chair to lower interest rates ahead of the 1972 election. It worked, but that short-term gain fueled high inflation throughout the rest of the ’70s, he argued.

“America, like most other developed nations, has an independent central bank for exactly this reason,” Fletcher said, “to avoid political pressure for lower interest rates that will benefit politicians with short-term growth but bring inflation in the long term.”