North Carolina Senate polls paint very different pictures
Two recent polls of the North Carolina Senate race offer contrasting pictures of Republican Michael Whatley adn Democrat Roy Cooper. A right-leaning Tipp Insights online survey of 1,512 registered voters (Jan.12-15) showed Cooper leading 48% to 24% with 27% undecided (±2.7%), and favorability ratings of 54% for Cooper versus 25% for Whatley; the Whatley campaign called that result an outlier. A separate Carolina Forward poll of 1,105 likely voters (Jan. 5-7) found a much tighter race, with Cooper ahead 47% to 42% (±3.5%). RealClearPolitics’ polling average also shows Cooper leading by about 8.6 points (46.6% to 38%). The campaign dynamic includes Whatley targeting Cooper on crime and immigration, while Democrats portray Whatley as a Washington insider lacking charisma; North Carolina’s primary is March 3. The article was updated to note the Tipp Insights poll is a statistical outlier and to add the Whatley campaign comment.
North Carolina Senate polls paint very different pictures
A pair of polls on the North Carolina Senate race, released within hours of each other, paint very different pictures of the fortunes of Republican hopeful Michael Whatley and his Democratic opponent, former Gov. Roy Cooper.
One poll released on Monday from the right-leaning Tipp Insights for the League of American Workers asked 1,512 registered voters in an online survey conducted between Jan. 12 and 15 who they would vote for if the November election were held today. Cooper garnered 48% compared to 24% for Whatley, with 27% undecided. The poll has a margin of error of +/- 2.7%.
When it came to favorability, 54% of those surveyed viewed Cooper favorably, compared to just 25% for Whatley.
Danielle Alvarez, Senior Advisor to Whatley’s Senate campaign, told the Washington Examiner: “This poll is bull****—a total outlier. Roy Cooper has spent 40 years in elected office, and he still can’t break 50% in a poll, which tells you everything. The North Carolina Senate race will be the most competitive in the country, and any pollster pretending it’s a 20-point race should find a new profession.”
“North Carolina will never send a failed, career politician like Roy Cooper to the U.S. Senate after he rammed through pretrial release and cashless bail, allowing repeat criminals to roam our streets and prey on innocent people. His soft-on-crime agenda put illegal aliens and criminals first and families last, and the Whatley Campaign will not let anyone forget it.”
Alvarez is correct that the poll is a clear outlier. The RealClearPolitics average has Cooper leading Whitley by 8.6 points at 46.6% to 38%.
Fortunately for Whatley, a separate poll released Monday from Carolina Forward showed Cooper’s lead was far narrower, giving him just a five-point cushion, 47% to 42%. That poll, which was conducted between Jan. 5 and 7, surveyed the opinions of 1,105 likely general voters, with a 3.5% margin of error.
Whatley has prioritized targeting Cooper’s record as governor, including policies on crime and immigration, particularly singling out the fatal stabbing of Iryna Zarutska by a repeat offender and another recent stabbing by an illegal immigrant as proof that his Democratic opponent is “soft-on-crime” and unfit for the Senate.
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The North Carolina Democratic Party has sought to brand Whatley as lacking in charisma, a criticism echoed by Don Brown, a Republican challenging Whatley for the GOP nomination. Critics have also perpetuated the narrative that Washington insiders handpicked Whatley. Before he launched the Senate campaign after being personally recruited by President Donald Trump to run, Whatley led the Republican National Committee. The Carolina Forward poll has Whatley well ahead of his Republican challengers at 36% compared to just 6% for Brown.
North Carolina’s primary is on March 3.
Editor’s Note: This story has been updated from an earlier version to reflect that the Tipp Insights poll is a statistical outlier, and added information from the second poll released Monday. It also added a comment from the Whatley campaign.
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