But shifts for other seats, such as those held by Reps. Marcy Kaptur (D-OH) and Rep. Vicente Gonzalez (D-TX) are indicative of changes in the opinion of Republicans.

Erin Covey, a CPR House analyst, said in an interview that the shifts are based on the changes in the political environment, which a year ago hadn’t been swayed by legislative actions taken in Congress, while Trump’s approval rating was relatively untested.

But Democratic election wins in 2025 have become a “good harbinger” of Democratic voters being more motivated to turn out in 2026.

One of the seats that shifted from “likely” to “solid” was the district represented by Rep. Pat Ryan (D-NY). He was one of several where former Vice President Kamala Harris did worse than the congressional incumbents in 2024, so the analysts kept his and many others’ seats at “likely” to see which way the wind blew.

“We weren’t saying that, like, folks like Pat Ryan would necessarily be vulnerable in 2026,” Covey said. “It was just like, well, this is a district that Harris only won by three points. We don’t really know what the environment is going to look like.”

She noted that in several “likely,” now “solid Democrat” seats, most of the Democratic incumbents have not drawn a strong Republican challenger.

“So, we felt like these were races that warranted just moving into the ‘solid’ category,” Covey said. “It’s not even like we’re saying these districts were competitive before; it’s more that we don’t think that there’s a real potential for them to become competitive at this point.” 

However, races like Kaptur’s and Gonzalez’s could decide the fate of the House. Speaker Mike Johnson (R-LA) currently has a two-seat majority, which is increasingly being tested by attendance problems stemming from campaigns, medical emergencies, and even death.

Kaptur and Gonzalez’s seats were rated “lean Republican,” but are now considered “toss-up.” Seats held by Reps. Gabe Vasquez (D-NM) and Laura Gillen (D-NY) shifted from a “toss-up” to “lean Democrat.” 

Part of that reason, Covey said, is due to a drop in Hispanic support for Republicans. Hispanics and other key blue voting blocs trended toward Trump significantly in the 2024 election. In 2024, Trump received 43% of Hispanic support, up from 35% in the 2020 election.

Trump’s overall approval rating sits at 42% as of Thursday. And polling from the Pew Research Center in November found Hispanic adults are growing increasingly unhappy with the Trump administration over his economic and immigration policies, as the president continues to levy tariffs and increase deportations of illegal immigrants.

About two-thirds of Hispanic adults overall disapproved of the president’s approach to immigration, while 61% said his economic policies have made conditions worse, according to the poll.

Covey said it’s still too early to tell how Hispanic voters will vote in 2026, but the 2025 results in New Jersey and Virginia resulted in “quite a big reversion” away from supporting Republicans. She noted that many Latino voters are independents, which could give members in swing districts an edge.

“It’s not like these are hyper partisans in one way or the other,” the analyst said. “And a lot of the new voters that Trump brought out in 2024, these were not folks who had been reliable Republican voters at all. And so it’s just like the uncertainty around them gives Democrats in some of these places, particularly someone like this. I think it’s always a lot more wiggle room than a Democrat in a bit more less-elastic district.”

Kaptur, in particular, is one of a few toss-up incumbents who have a talent for holding onto her competitive seat. She narrowly won her seat by less than 1% in 2024. She was presumed to have her work cut out for her this year, with her seat shifting to “lean Republican” last year due to successful redistricting efforts in Ohio.

But the seat is back to being a toss-up, largely because the Republican field is growing. Derrick Merrin, her 2024 challenger, is launching a rematch, and Air Force veteran Alea Nadeem is also vying for the Republican nomination. 

On Thursday, hours before the Cook Political Report ratings came out, former deputy director of Immigration and Customs Enforcement Madison Sheahan announced she would leave her agency role and run for Kaptur’s seat as a Republican.

Covey said Sheahan’s entrance did not impact the seat’s shift in ratings, but she said it does add to the problem the GOP will have this cycle in Kaptur and many other seats: Republicans don’t have a strong GOP challenger to coalesce behind.

“It means that this primary, I think, is going to be more competitive, and you’re going to see Republicans spending money, having to go after each other, just because it’s not like there’s a clear front-runner here,” Covey said.

Data shows that while Democrats are on a high after their wins last year, they cannot just ride a hypothetical blue wave to victory. Covey said a good night for Democrats would be flipping 20 seats, with the party unlikely to reach the 40-seat figure it achieved in 2018.

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In November, a Marist-PBS-NPR poll found that Democrats had a 14-point lead on the generic ballot, the largest advantage for control of Congress in eight years. 

If Democrats were to win every seat President Donald Trump won or lost by 5 points or less, that would only give the party a gain of 14 seats, per the Cook Political Report. That would be more than enough to take the majority, but it wouldn’t be a “wave election” in the eyes of seasoned political pundits.