No Change in House Lineup Expected in Special Elections This Year

To the surprise of next to no one on Tuesday night, State Rep. Melanie Stansbury kept New Mexico’s 1^st District (Albuquerque) in a solid Democrat grip.

With four other special elections to fill vacancies in the House left in 2021, it is almost a foregone conclusion that none will flip to the other party and the House will retain its current wafer-thin breakdown until the mid-term elections of 2022 — 222 Democrats to 213 Republicans.

In the first special election for the House since Joe Biden became president in January, Stansbury rolled up 62.2% of the vote to 33.8% for conservative Republican State Sen. Mark Moores.

The 1^st District has been in Democrat hands since 2008 and Biden carried it by more than 3-to-2 last fall. 

The makeup of the other four districts requiring special elections also favors retention by the party now holding them.

On July 27, Texas’ 6^th District will choose in a runoff between two Replublicans vying to succeed the late Republican Rep. Ron Wright — his widow Susan or former State Rep. Jake Ellzey.

Ohio will hold primaries on Aug. 3 in the 11^th District (Cleveland), for a seat vacated by Democrat Rep. Marcia Fudge when she became secretary of Housing and Urban Development, and the 15^th District (Columbus), whose seat was vacated by Republican Rep. Steve Stivers when he became head of the Ohio Chamber of Commerce.

Nominees will then go to special elections, both scheduled for Nov. 3, and the 11^th and 15^th Districts are almost certain to remain in Democrat and Republican hands respectively.

On Nov. 2, primaries will be held in Florida’s heavily Democrat 20^th District to choose candidates to replace the late Democrat Rep. Alcee Hastings, who died April 6. 

Whoever is nominated by the Democrats is sure to succeed Hastings following the special election Jan. 11.

John Gizzi is chief political columnist and White House correspondent for Newsmax. For more of his reports, Go Here Now.