New Poll Shows Republican Upset in New Jersey Governor’s Race Is a Real Possibility
A recent poll indicates a close race in the upcoming New Jersey gubernatorial election, with Democratic Rep. Mikie Sherrill holding a narrow lead over Republican former Assemblyman Jack Ciattarelli. Sherrill leads 49% to 48%,but the margin is within the poll’s error range,effectively making the race a tie. Sherrill’s support among Black and Hispanic voters has declined slightly, while Ciattarelli leads among men by 16 points. Historically, New Jersey has alternated between Democratic and Republican governors.Polls show that voter enthusiasm and perceptions of momentum might potentially be shifting toward Ciattarelli, with some Democrats expressing dissatisfaction with Sherrill’s campaign. The election remains highly competitive as voters head to the polls.
After eight years under a Democratic governor, there’s a chance New Jersey could return to the Republican fold in next week’s election, according to a new poll.
Democratic Rep. Mikie Sherrill has been holding the lead, but a new poll shows that former Assemblyman Jack Ciattarelli is within striking distance.
Republican Chris Christie was the state’s governor from 2010 through 2018, before term-limited Democrat Phil Murphy took office.
Sherrill leads Ciattarelli 49 percent to 48 percent in a new Emerson College Polling/PIX11/The Hill poll, but given that the sample has a margin of error of plus or minus three percentage points, in practical terms, the two are tied, according to The Hill.
Undecided voters, who made up two percent of the overall total, largely broke for Sherrill when asked to make a choice, but even Sherrill’s 50-48 lead remains within the margin of error.
When undecideds are asked which candidate they’re leaning toward, Sherrill’s support grows to 50 percent, while Ciattarelli receives 48 percent. Even factoring in undecided voters, however, the two are still polling within the margin of error, essentially tying them.
New Jersey has flipped between Democratic and Republican governors since 1961. In 2021, Ciattarelli lost to Murphy by three percentage points.
Sherrill is winning black and Hispanic voters, but her margin with black voters dropped from 57 percentage points in September to 50 points in October, while her 21-point margin among Hispanic voters has dropped to 15 points.
“Heading into Election Day, the gender divide in the gubernatorial election has solidified: men break for Ciattarelli by 16 points, while women break for Sherrill by 18 points,” Spencer Kimball, executive director of Emerson College Polling, said.
“Since last month, Ciattarelli’s lead among men increased by four points, and Sherrill’s lead among women grew by eight points,” a release noted, showing there’s also a stark gender gap between the candidates.
The survey was conducted between Oct. 25 and Oct. 28 of 1,000 people who either have already voted or are very likely voters.
The Real Clear Polling average in the race shows Sherrill with a 3.3 percentage point lead, 49.1 to 45.7. However, Sherrill enjoyed a margin of five percentage points in early October that has since shrunk.
I’m all about live and let live, but why are drag queens a featured event at a public school teacher’s conference and what does it have to do with educating our children?! This is Mikie Sherrill’s NJ, not mine. When I’m Governor, we’re getting back to the basics in our public… https://t.co/jLfvbmWzjm
— Jack Ciattarelli (@Jack4NJ) October 29, 2025
At least one Democrat said Sherrill has failed to connect.
“She hasn’t done anything to enthuse me,” Councilman Jeff Lewis of Branchville said, according to Fox News.
“All she keeps running with her commercials is the fact she’s a helicopter pilot and a mom of four, and she thinks she’s going to be able to lower electrical bills, which I think she’s going to have a very hard time doing,” he said, adding that she is “not cut out for the job.”
A New York Post report said that according to a Quantus Insights survey, 53 percent of likely New Jersey voters think neighbors are backing Ciattarelli, as opposed to 47 percent who think those folks are backing Sherrill, according to a poll from Quantus Insights.
“This finding shows that Republicans, Democrats and Independents alike recognize that momentum is surging for Jack Ciattarelli, and that’s why he’s on track to win next Tuesday,” Republican strategist Jeanette Hoffman said.
“Asking voters a question about what they think their fellow citizens will do can be pretty accurate, because it gauges the momentum of campaigns on the ground,” Hoffman added.
The Quantus Insights poll took responses from 1,380 likely voters between Oct. 26–27. Its margin of error is plus or minus 2.6 percentage points.
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