The Duty Drawback program, introduced during Trump’s first administration, provides businesses with the opportunity to receive a refund of up to 99% for certain duties, taxes, and fees paid for goods they imported but were later exported or destroyed. 

The program was partially repealed by the House’s proposed One Big Beautiful Bill Act, but its Senate counterpart restored it before Trump signed it into law in July.

The poll conducted by Fabrizo, the pollster for Trump’s 2016 and 2024 campaigns, also found that Republican candidates who opposed Duty Drawback jeopardized their own midterm elections.

Tony Fabrizo for the Restoring American Dominance Coalition poll by web-producers

For example, a candidate supporting the program’s repeal lost an average of 7 percentage points, 26 points specifically among Trump voters. 

“In these highly competitive districts where the overall House vote was tied in 2024, the race for control of the House is tight with the generic Democrat holding a 45%-42% lead within the margin of error over a generic Republican, with 14% of voters unsure,” Fabrizo wrote in the memo. 

The pollster added, “However, in a scenario where the Republican candidate supported ending the Duty Drawback policy as a way to raise revenue by increasing taxes on U.S. exporters, the Democrat expands their advantage to 10 points. This expanded deficit is driven by the GOP candidate losing fidelity from the Trump base, going from an initial 84-point lead with Trump voters down to 58 points.”

To that end, Democrats do have an early polling edge before the midterm elections, in part because of respondent dissatisfaction with the direction of the country, mostly driven by the economy.

The House is particularly competitive next year because of House Speaker Mike Johnson’s (R-LA) historically small majority.

More broadly, the Fabrizo poll found more than nine in 10 voters consider it important for Congress to support policies that incentivize American manufacturing and job creation, including 68% who describe it as very important. Among Trump voters, 89% are of the same opinion.

In response to a similar question, more than 8-in-10 voters told pollsters it is important for Congress to support tax policies that encourage American companies to manufacture their products in the United States.

About the same margin of voters responded that policies that promote foreign direct investment in American manufacturing are important, with 90% of Trump voters having the same opinion. So, too, did about 75% of independent voters and voters who last year cast a ballot for former Vice President Kamala Harris.

Fabrizo, through his polling shop Fabrizio Ward, polled 1,000 registered voters in 28 battleground House congressional districts from Oct. 5-7 in both English and Spanish for the Restoring American Dominance Coalition. The margin of error for his poll is plus or minus 3.1 points.

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The Restoring American Dominance Coalition is a conservative nonprofit organization that was founded last month by former Trump Domestic Policy Council director Joe Grogan.

Grogan told the Washington Examiner exclusively at the time the coalition was trying to “bring back homegrown, American manufacturing and bring about a golden age for the American people, ensuring that the United States leads the world in manufacturing, trade, and innovation.”