Many 2024 GOP candidates are more likely to quit than secure the nomination.
Miami Mayor Francis Suarez Drops Out of 2024 Presidential Race, Setting a Trend for the GOP Field
Miami Mayor Francis Suarez made headlines this week as he became the first Republican candidate to drop out of the 2024 presidential race. But he certainly won’t be the last.
Suarez’s decision marks the beginning of a trend in the GOP field, with candidates starting to withdraw from the race months before the first votes are cast in Iowa next January. The big question now is how many more will follow suit.
The Republican Field: A Paper Giant
On paper, the Republican field appears to be quite large. However, in reality, most candidates are polling closer to Suarez, who didn’t even qualify for the first GOP debate earlier this month. The overwhelming frontrunner, former President Donald Trump, remains far ahead of the pack.
Only a few candidates, such as Gov. Doug Burgum (R-ND) and former Arkansas Gov. Asa Hutchinson, managed to qualify for the debate stage in Milwaukee. Yet, their polling numbers are still quite low, with both hovering around 0.4% in the RealClearPolitics national polling average and 0% in the latest Economist/YouGov poll.
The Struggle for Relevance
For candidates who failed to make it onto the debate stage, serious questions arise about their path to electoral relevance, let alone securing the nomination. And the rules for participating in the next debate in September will only become stricter.
Most of the eight candidates who debated in Milwaukee are closer to the end of their presidential campaigns than the beginning. The real question is how many of them are aware of it.
The Numbers Game
Nationally, only three Republican candidates are polling above 5% in the RealClearPolitics average. Former United Nations Ambassador Nikki Haley and former Vice President Mike Pence are close to reaching that figure. However, only two candidates are in the double digits, while the rest are not even close. Trump continues to dominate the majority of the vote.
Fortunately for the other Republicans running, there is no national primary. However, these polling figures may provide a glimpse into what could happen on Super Tuesday if a non-Trump candidate fails to gain traction by then. The early states hold more significance, and in those, Trump’s support is below 50%.
In New Hampshire, the situation looks less promising for Trump’s rivals. Trump has maintained a lead of at least 30 points since mid-July, and recent statewide polls show him hovering around 50%. The gap between Trump and Gov. Ron DeSantis (R-FL) in the race for first place is much wider than the gap between DeSantis and other candidates vying for second place.
However, a breakthrough could be possible in Iowa. DeSantis has been polling at or around 20%, while Trump seems determined to repeat the mistakes that cost him the caucuses in 2016.
The Road to Iowa
How many candidates will make it to Iowa? DeSantis has a stronger case for continuing than any other candidate and is best positioned to inherit Trump’s support if the former president’s legal burdens become too overwhelming. However, other candidates, including Haley and entrepreneur Vivek Ramaswamy, generated buzz during the first debate and will spend the next few weeks trying to build on that momentum.
Unfortunately, many of these candidates will likely have little impact, similar to Suarez, regardless of whether they drop out or stay in the race.
We are still in the early stages of the 2024 Republican presidential nomination contest. In previous races, the lead in Iowa has changed multiple times between now and the caucuses.
However, time is running out. The fall season will mark the first time primary voters seriously consider their options for next year. Then the holidays will arrive, followed quickly by the caucuses.
And then, the real race begins.
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In the Republican primary fight, the end of the beginning is near.
For most of those running, however, it is the beginning of the end.
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