In perhaps the clearest example, four House GOP lawmakers banded together with Democrats to force a vote releasing files regarding convicted sex offender Jeffrey Epstein. Despite Trump’s pressure campaign against the measure, he eventually reversed course, encouraged lawmakers to support the bill after it became clear it would pass, and then signed it into law.

The spectacle led to a dramatic split with firebrand Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene (R-GA), who recently announced her resignation from Congress.

The Trump administration was also forced to scrap a framework to extend expiring Affordable Care Act subsidies, at least temporarily, following heavy backlash from Republicans. And earlier this month, Senate GOP lawmakers withstood his pressure to scrap the filibuster and separate attempts to change the blue slip courtesy that gives Democrats the power to veto some of his judicial nominees.

Trump is still the undisputed head of his party, and some operatives have questioned whether he really is a lame duck so early in his presidency. Still, every special election and down-ballot race is being cast as a referendum on Trump personally, raising the stakes for his continued influence.

Democrats overperformed in statewide races this month in Virginia and New Jersey, as well as in a spate of House elections and further down the ballot, stoking concern that Republicans could lose their unified control of government next year. The next test will be in Tennessee’s Seventh District, where a poll showed the Democratic nominee in a dead heat despite Trump winning there by 22 points last year.

“In politics, it seems like there’s always buyer’s remorse about a year into a presidency, there’s often a great deal of dissatisfaction with what the voters decided a year earlier,” said Stephen Farnsworth, a political science professor at the University of Mary Washington. “A year in is when the opposition tends to be energized.”

Republican strategists told the Washington Examiner it was inevitable that Trump would slide into lame duck status as a second-term president who is prohibited by the Constitution from serving another four years.

“That reality gave him about a year to get his agenda through Congress, which has been a challenge because the presidency and Congress have effectively become a parliamentary government without the ability to legislate in the way a prime minister gets to legislate; namely, the 60-vote threshold in the Senate,” said Dennis Lennox, a GOP strategist. “Congress just isn’t a parliament, even if it’s effectively become one. The system of how you legislate is broken because no president’s party is ever going to have 60 votes in our evenly divided electoral landscape.”

The president is also facing a party that appears less rattled by his personal attacks as they seek to hold on to the House and Senate next year. Republican lawmakers in Indiana have for weeks resisted his efforts to redraw a more favorable House map for next year’s elections despite the threat of primary challenges, though that resistance may be fading after the legislature agreed to return to session this coming week.

“Every second-term president at some point hits a place in their tenure that makes others in their party begin to act more independently. Whether this is indeed that inflection point in Trump 2.0 remains to be seen,” Christopher Nicholas, a veteran Republican political consultant. “And I think a lot of it will depend on what situation rank-and-file Republicans find themselves in.”

Shekar Narasimhan, founder of the AAPI Victory Fund, a political action committee, pointed to the dozens of lawmakers who are retiring at the end of this Congress, among them Greene, to suggest that some Republicans are ready to throw in the towel rather than continue to navigate Trump’s second term.

“At some point, his threats become meaningless, and people just ignore them. And if they do that, that’s when he becomes a lame duck. I don’t think we’re there yet,” Narasimhan said.

A diminished Trump does not automatically translate into Democratic wins next year, warned one Democrat. The Democratic National Committee remains short on cash and reportedly took out a $15 million loan last month in an unusual sign of financial distress.

Economic anxiety persists as the top issue for voters, even after Democrats lost the White House last year due to high inflation, and it remains to be seen which party voters will blame for the economy.

“The question is, how do you make that narrative, [that] it’s Republicans’ fault and not Democrats’ fault,” said Christian Esperias, a Democratic consultant. “I always use a boiling frog analogy — right now, we’re boiling frogs. Everything’s getting just quietly a little s****ier and a little more expensive.”

“And my fear as a Democrat is we as Democrats don’t have the infrastructure or messaging or money, more importantly, to remind people, ‘Your life’s getting s****ier because of [the GOP],’” Esperias continued.

TRUMP FREEZES 2028 FIELD AS SOME BELIEVE NON-ALIGNED CANDIDATE MAY BE GOP’S BEST BET

Trump, for his part, has made his political career as someone able to defy political gravity and bounce back from moments that would have defeated any other lawmaker. But strategists say more time is needed to understand how long Trump will remain the proverbial head of the GOP as other politicians quietly prepare for the possibility of a 2028 presidential campaign. Sen. Ted Cruz (R-TX) recently attempted to shut down reports he is considering a 2028 run.

“Now, as we enter midterms, we’re going to see incumbents and candidates — at least those who want to run — do whatever it takes to keep their seats,” said Lennox. “Then there’s the shadow 2028 campaign as various faces and voices jockey to position themselves for the race that will sooner than later officially start.”