Michigan’s undecided protest vote could serve as a cautionary signal for Biden in the upcoming November election
Great Stakes: The Fight for Victory in Michigan
Part One: Arab American and Muslim Voters Protest Biden’s Israel Policy
Michigan voters have an outsized impact on who will win the White House, and which party will carry the House and Senate in 2024. In this series, the Washington Examiner will look at the thorny politics and unique issues that will swing the critical battleground state.
DEARBORN, Michigan — Michigan’s Democratic presidential primary this week will underscore the political repercussions of the Israel-Hamas war for President Joe Biden before November’s general election.
More than four months since Hamas slaughtered more than a thousand Israelis and took hundreds more hostage on Oct. 7, Israel’s pledge to rid the world of the terrorist organization has divided the international community and the Democratic Party, with supporters of Palestinians in Michigan, a battleground state, promising not to vote for Biden in Tuesday’s primary or to mark themselves as “uncommitted” in protest of his response to the war.
Michigan’s Arab and Muslim Americans are “really energized” politically right now, according to Dawud Walid, executive director of the Council on American-Islamic Relations’s Michigan chapter, cognizant that they could “decide who is the next president of the United States of America.”
“Michigan is an important swing state and, overall, a majority of Michigan Muslims are arguably disgusted with the Biden administration’s not only mishandling of the war on Gaza but the active arming with weapons of the Israeli military that is committing war crimes and in front of the International Criminal Court of Justice as we speak,” Walid said.
Part One: Arab American and Muslim Voters Protest Biden’s Israel Policy
Biden’s support of Israel after Hamas’s Oct. 7 terrorist attack has prompted pro-Palestinian demonstrations nationwide, mostly spearheaded by young Americans, disrupting his appearances at former first lady Rosalynn Carter’s memorial service, a political speech at the site of the 2015 Charleston church shooting, and other events. The “uncommitted” campaign, endorsed by Rep. Rashida Tlaib (D-MI), Dearborn Mayor Abdullah Hammoud (D-MI), and even 2020 Democratic presidential candidate Beto O’Rourke, is the most serious challenge to Biden’s leadership this primary cycle after special counsel Robert Hur’s report raised concerns about his age and memory.
Sameh Elhady, vice chairman of the Michigan Democratic Party’s Arab American Caucus, reiterated the communities’s grief and belief that Biden will be the 2024 presidential nominee.
“But I hope that the lower percentage of his success will send him a strong message,” Elhady said. “Michigan is a battle state, and he won Michigan back in 2020 with only 150,000 votes. If you consider the Arab American population, which is 350,000 and averaging among half a million Muslims in Michigan, you are in a battle state, and you could lose it.”
In contrast, Michigan’s Jewish community, while similarly dynamic, is smaller, with estimates of 90,000 people.
Gov. Gretchen Whitmer (D-MI), a Biden campaign surrogate, said she’s “not sure” how her state’s primary will turn out for Biden, noting the “differences of opinion” in the “robust” Arab, Muslim, Palestinian, and Jewish communities in her state.
“I just want to make the case, though, that it’s important not to lose sight of the fact that any vote that’s not cast for Joe Biden supports a second Trump term,” Whitmer said on CNN Sunday of GOP presidential front-runner Donald Trump. “A second Trump term would be devastating, not just on fundamental rights, not just on our democracy here at home, but also when it comes to foreign policy.”
Biden was not “beloved” by Arab and Muslim Americans before the Israel-Hamas war, per Walid, because of, for example, his policies regarding Saudi Arabia and Yemen. Community leaders recently boycotted a meeting with Biden’s campaign, advocating instead to sit down with administration officials, including White House deputy national security adviser Jon Finer.
“Those are just some issues besides some of the economic concerns and the general mental fitness of Mr. Biden,” Walid said. “What is fascinating about our government at this time and the Biden administration is that, in dealing with any other country, if we’re giving them billions of dollars of money in aid, if they violate our values, then we would say that we’re going cut off the aid. But when it comes to Israel, Mr. Biden is so weak that he can say that [Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu administration’s] is going too far, and Netanyahu can completely ignore him.”
“No one is saying that Hamas did the right thing on Oct. 7. No one’s saying that,” Elhady added. “Protecting civilians from both sides, it’s important.”
In an interview, Dearborn Democratic state Rep. Erin Byrnes described Israel’s post-Oct. 7 military operations in Gaza as a “genocide” and called for an “immediate and lasting ceasefire.” She also asked for Biden to be “more forthcoming” about his and his administration’s “diplomatic measures” and “plan to support and uplift the Palestinian people.”
For Wayne University political science professor Ronald Brown, Tuesday’s “uncommitted” campaign, a combination of the “Listen to Michigan” and “Abandon Biden” endeavors, could be a “canary in the coal mine” for Biden before the general election.
“That could be a pretty good predictor of what might happen in November,” Brown said, particularly considering the “quite high” number of absentee ballot applications. “If there’s a low number of Democrats who vote uncommitted, well, they also [might] not show up and vote. So I think I would just take a look at that and see how high that percentage is.”
As for expectations for the “uncommitted” campaign, Walid emphasized the demographic and historical differences between Michigan and New Hampshire after the Granite State’s “ceasefire” write-in counterpart underperformed during last month’s primary. Former President Barack Obama’s 2008 campaign received 40% of the vote through an “uncommitted” bid against then-candidate Hillary Clinton after he did not qualify for Michigan’s ballot.
Both Walid and Elhady hope to dispel the Biden campaign’s assumption that Arab and Muslim Americans will support Biden in the general election compared to Trump, though Elhady, a once proud Democrat voting ”uncommitted” on Tuesday, remains undecided about what to do in November. Walid does not intend to back Biden in eight months.
“This is a very dangerous gambling and overconfidence,” Elhady said, adamant the communities are “not scared of Trump” because they can undermine his “authoritarian style.” “This is what’s going to, unfortunately, could be one of the reasons if Biden loses the upcoming election. And this is, unfortunately, history repeating itself. Back in 2016, between Hillary Clinton and Trump, the same way, the overconfidence, and Hillary Clinton lost because 1% only of the Democrats did not go to vote because they don’t like her.”
The Biden campaign, which declined to comment directly on the “uncommitted” effort, did not schedule a presidential campaign visit in Michigan the weekend before voters head to the polls.
A Biden campaign spokeswoman, however, claimed in a statement: “The president is working hard to earn every vote in Michigan,” pointing to Biden’s record on bringing green energy and infrastructure union jobs to Michigan, walking the picket line with the UAW last year, supporting abortion access, and lowering black unemployment.
“And, he is working tirelessly to create a just, lasting peace in the Middle East,” the statement said.
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How has the “uncommitted” campaign impacted the primary race in Michigan, specifically among supporters of Biden and Palestinian rights?
Between supporters of Biden and Palestinian rights during the primary there in 2020.
“Michigan is a completely different demographic,” Walid said. “We have a significant Arab and Muslim population, and they have strong ties to Palestine. So, I think the ‘uncommitted’ campaign will have a much more profound impact in Michigan.”
In Michigan, Arab and Muslim Americans make up around 7% of the population. They have a long history of activism and political engagement, particularly in the Detroit metropolitan area, which has one of the largest Arab American populations in the country. The Arab and Muslim communities in Michigan have been vocal in their support for Palestinian rights and have consistently pushed for a more balanced U.S. policy in the region.
However, it remains to be seen how much of an impact the “uncommitted” campaign will have on the primary results. While Arab and Muslim Americans are politically active, they are not a monolithic group, and their support for Biden may vary. Additionally, the primary race in Michigan is not solely focused on the Israel-Hamas conflict but also includes other important issues such as healthcare, the economy, and racial justice.
Nevertheless, the fact that the Israel-Hamas conflict has become a significant factor in the primary highlights the importance of foreign policy issues in Michigan politics. The state has a diverse electorate, and candidates need to engage with a range of communities and address their concerns in order to gain their support.
The “uncommitted” campaign also speaks to a broader debate within the Democratic Party regarding its stance towards Israel and its treatment of the Palestinians. While the party has traditionally been seen as pro-Israel, there is a growing progressive wing that advocates for a more balanced approach and supports Palestinian rights. This divide was evident during the recent conflict, with several progressive lawmakers criticizing Biden’s response and calling for a reassessment of U.S. policy towards Israel.
The outcome of the Michigan primary will provide insight into the level of support for these progressive positions within the state’s Democratic Party. It will also serve as a test for Biden’s ability to maintain unity within the party and appeal to diverse constituencies.
Overall, the Israel-Hamas conflict has become a significant factor in Michigan’s political landscape. Arab and Muslim Americans, in particular, are closely watching Biden’s response and are using the primary as an opportunity to voice their concerns. The outcome of the primary will not only determine the state’s delegates but also provide an indication of the power these communities wield in elections and their role in shaping the Democratic Party’s stance on foreign policy issues.
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