Michigan Senate Race Could Be GOP’s Best Midterms Offense Play: Poll
A recent poll conducted on behalf of the Republican group Sentinel Action Fund shows former Republican Representative Mike Rogers holding a meaningful lead over several Democratic candidates in michigan’s open 2026 Senate race. Rogers leads in hypothetical matchups against Democratic candidates including state Sen. Mallory mcmorrow, Rep. Haley Stevens, and former public health official Abdul El-Sayed. The polling indicates that Michigan voters favor Republicans on issues such as immigration, crime, and the economy, which are seen as tactical advantages for the GOP in this battleground state. Rogers, who narrowly lost a Senate race in 2024, is expected to secure the Republican nomination easily, with strong backing from President Trump and top GOP groups. meanwhile, the Democratic primary remains competitive and somewhat divisive, perhaps weakening their general election nominee. The Sentinel Action Fund emphasizes the importance of a focused “economy-first” message supported by crime and immigration concerns for Republicans to capitalize on these advantages. Although some polls show tighter races, the new data strengthens Republican optimism about flipping the Michigan Senate seat in 2026, despite historical challenges and a midterm habitat that often disfavors the party in power.
Former Republican Rep. Mike Rogers holds a considerable lead over several Democratic candidates in Michigan’s open 2026 Senate race, according to new polling.
The survey, conducted on behalf of the Republican group Sentinel Action Fund and first d with the Daily Caller News Foundation, finds that voters would choose Rogers over the three Democratic primary candidates in head-to-head matchups. Michigan voters also prefer Republicans on immigration, crime, and the economy, giving the Republicans several “tactical advantages” in the battleground state, according to the polling memo.
In a hypothetical general election matchup against Michigan state Sen. Mallory McMorrow, Rogers holds a 13-point advantage. The Michigan Republican also leads Democratic Rep. Haley Stevens and Bernie Sanders-endorsed former public health official Abdul El-Sayed by 9 points.
Rogers, who has thus far avoided a serious primary challenger, is expected to cruise to the general election with the support of President Donald Trump, the Senate Republicans’ campaign arm, and top GOP super PACs. The Michigan Republican is running to succeed retiring Democratic Sen. Gary Peters after falling short by a razor-thin margin in a 2024 Senate bid.
The three Democratic candidates are engaged in a messy primary fight that could damage the nominee who advances to the general election. The Democratic primary contest has no clear frontrunner, though Stevens led the field in the most recent fundraising quarter.
The Sentinel Action Fund, who tapped Republican polling firm Targeted Grassroots to conduct the survey, argues that the Republicans are well-positioned to flip the seat, but must have “economy-first” messaging with crime and immigration serving as “supporting” issues.
Republicans maintain a double-digit lead over a generic Democrat candidate on crime and immigration. Michigan voters also give Republicans a 7-point edge on the economy and jobs.
“While Democrats navigate their radical primary, Republicans should stay focused on cost-of-living, border security, and crime — exactly where voters already trust the GOP,” the polling memo said.
Public polling of the critical Senate race has had varied results.
A Rosetta Stone poll conducted from Oct. 23 to Oct. 25 found Rogers leading El-Sayed by 14 points. The survey also showed the Michigan Republican with 7-point leads over McMorrow and Stevens.
An ABC12 poll released Friday showed McMorrow and Stevens leading Rogers within the margin of error. The survey did not poll a hypothetical head-to-head matchup between Rogers and El-Sayed.
The polling is likely to cement Republicans’ thinking that Michigan is one of the party’s top opportunities to flip a Senate seat during the midterms. Democrats, conversely, must hold the state in the Democratic column to achieve the party’s longshot bid of retaking Senate control.
The polling memo also argues that turning out low-propensity voters who cast ballots in 2024 could prove decisive in securing a Rogers’ victory.
The Rogers campaign is already building out a ground game operation and released an ad Friday aimed at connecting with those voters.
“A data-driven state wide operation doesn’t only win one race — it strengthens the entire ballot,” Sentinel Action Fund president Jessica Anderson said in a statement. “This new data shows that Michigan is within reach for Republicans in 2026.”
“With the right targeting, focused messaging, and a strong ground game to turn out voters across the ballot, Mike Rogers and Republicans can flip this state and build lasting conservative majorities that can carry out President Trump’s strong agenda and deliver real results for the American people,” Anderson added.
Rogers could face headwinds in a midterm election year, which historically do not bode well for the party in power. A Republican has also not won a Michigan Senate seat in more than three decades.
All content created by the Daily Caller News Foundation, an independent and nonpartisan newswire service, is available without charge to any legitimate news publisher that can provide a large audience. All republished articles must include our logo, our reporter’s byline and their DCNF affiliation. For any questions about our guidelines or partnering with us, please contact [email protected].
Advertise with The Western Journal and reach millions of highly engaged readers, while supporting our work. Advertise Today.
" Conservative News Daily does not always share or support the views and opinions expressed here; they are just those of the writer."
*As an Amazon Associate I earn from qualifying purchases
