Maybe next time? Youngkin 2024 hopes likely dashed as GOP loses state House
Gov. Glenn Youngkin’s Presidential Dreams Shattered as Democrats Take Control in Virginia
It was always a long shot for Gov. Glenn Youngkin (R-VA) to pursue his presidential ambitions in 2024. However, the dream has now been crushed as Democrats regain control of the Virginia House of Delegates and retain the state Senate, races in which Youngkin heavily campaigned to support Republicans.
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“I see a real opportunity to propel Virginia into overdrive,” Youngkin expressed optimistically on Tuesday. “In just 24 months, we have witnessed a remarkable shift from an all-blue state to a right-leaning one. Today, we must secure our House and flip the Senate to complete the work.”
Unfortunately, fate had other plans, leaving analysts to ponder whether the blue-leaning nature of the Virginia electorate, dissatisfaction with Youngkin’s performance as governor, or his strong support for a 15-week abortion ban were the deciding factors.
Youngkin emerged as a Hail Mary GOP presidential candidate following his surprising victory in 2021 and the lackluster performance of non-Donald Trump Republican campaigns. Consequently, the outcome of keeping the Virginia House and flipping the Senate carried significant weight.
The answer, however, was a resounding no. If Youngkin still harbors presidential aspirations, he will have to set his sights on 2028.
“Even if these elections had gone well for him, 2024 would have been a stretch,” remarked J. Miles Coleman from the University of Virginia Center for Politics. “Some filing deadlines, such as those in New Hampshire, South Carolina, and Nevada, have already passed. It was always a long shot, and this outcome makes it even more improbable.”
Republicans in the state rallied for voter turnout in the traditionally lackluster off-year elections, particularly this year due to Youngkin’s approval rating and legislative record generating White House speculation. Some Virginia Democrats even campaigned on their ability to collaborate with the Republican governor in their 2023 ads.
Coleman emphasized that the result was not entirely unfavorable for Youngkin or his party. Firstly, Democrats only secured slim control of the two legislative chambers. Secondly, Youngkin can now campaign on his fight against the Democrats, rather than attempting to push the boundaries of what Virginia voters will tolerate with a Republican trifecta in Richmond.
“Youngkin is a conservative, but his power has been curtailed by a split legislature,” Coleman explained. “Consequently, he was unable to implement many truly conservative policies in a blue state. Often, the most popular governors are the ones who do nothing.”
A parallel can be drawn to Gov. Andy Beshear (D-KY), who faced opposition from a Republican legislature and adopted a more moderate stance during his successful reelection campaign in red Kentucky.
Money poured into Virginia’s election from both within the state and across the nation. Just six days before the 2023 election, four Democrats running in battleground state Senate districts received substantial out-of-state donations from a nonprofit group supported by Gov. J.B. Pritzker (D-IL).
As in other states, abortion played a significant role in the campaigns. Youngkin pledged to sign a 15-week abortion limit if Republicans gained control of the legislature. Meanwhile, Democrats made abortion a central focus of their campaign messaging, investing heavily in ad campaigns that criticized the GOP’s plans as ”extreme” and ”terrifying.”
Youngkin made his final appeal on Fox News Tuesday morning, proclaiming that he had rescued the state from Democratic rule and accusing the opposing party of relying solely on fear tactics to promote abortion.
“We are the party of hope, while they are the party of fear. Hope triumphs over fear every day of the week,” Youngkin asserted.
However, his message failed to resonate on Tuesday night, effectively putting an end to Youngkin’s 2024 buzz.
“CLEARANCE SALE: all ‘Youngkin for President 2024’ merchandise,” humorously posted University of Virginia Center for Politics Director Larry Sabato on X, formerly known as Twitter. “A free MyPillow comes with all purchases over $1. NO RETURNS.”
What challenges do Republicans in Virginia face in their efforts to regain significant political power in a state that has leaned Democratic in recent years?
His own agenda as governor. This could potentially strengthen his appeal to conservative voters in future elections.
However, the loss for Youngkin also highlights the challenges that lie ahead for Republicans in Virginia. Despite a strong showing in the 2021 gubernatorial race, the party still faces an uphill battle in a state that has increasingly leaned Democratic in recent years. The ability of Democrats to maintain control of the Virginia House and Senate signals that the party’s base remains energized, and that Republicans will need to work hard to regain significant political power in the state.
Furthermore, Youngkin’s support for a 15-week abortion ban may have also played a role in his defeat. Virginia is a diverse state with a range of views on social issues, and Youngkin’s stance on abortion may have alienated some voters. This highlights the importance for candidates to navigate sensitive social issues carefully, as they can have a significant impact on electoral success.
Looking ahead, Youngkin will need to regroup and assess his next steps. While his presidential dreams have been dashed for now, he still has the opportunity to make a meaningful impact on Virginia politics. Whether he chooses to focus on building his profile as a conservative leader in the state or looks to national politics in the future remains to be seen. Ultimately, the outcome of this election serves as a reminder of the challenges and uncertainties that come with political ambitions, and the importance of adapting to changing political dynamics.
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