Maryland is “not in play” as Cardin claims after Hogan-Alsobrooks Senate race confirmation

Sen. Ben Cardin (D-MD) is leaving zero doubt a Democrat will succeed him in the Senate when he retires in January.

“I think in November, Maryland will not be in play,” he told the Washington Examiner after Angela Alsobrooks, the Prince George’s County executive, clinched the Democratic nomination on Tuesday night.

That would have been an uncontroversial statement three months ago. No Republican has won a Senate seat in Maryland since 1980.

But Larry Hogan, the popular, two-term GOP governor, upended the Senate map in February with his late entrance into the race. He previously shrugged off the possibility of a run despite being heavily recruited by national Republicans.

Cardin acknowledges the GOP landed a high-profile recruit. Hogan won the nomination handily on Tuesday promising to be the same independent voice who led the state for eight years.

“Obviously, Larry Hogan has a popularity in our state. We recognize that,” he said.

However, Cardin predicted Maryland voters would not elect a man who could tilt control of the Senate to Republicans. President Joe Biden, running for a second term in the White House, would also give Alsobrooks coattails, he said, in a state he carried by 33 points in 2020.

“When voters understand this is a national election, I think we’ll win this one,” Cardin said.

Maryland is not a top-tier race for Senate Republicans. With Democrats controlling a one-seat majority in the Senate, leadership is far more concerned with Montana and Ohio, two red states represented by Democrats.

But Republicans believe Hogan can win on the strength of his reputation. He charted a centrist path as governor, focusing on taxes and the economy, and has promised to protect abortion access, a vulnerability for Republicans, if elected to the U.S. Senate.

On former President Donald Trump, who will challenge Biden in the fall, he is an outspoken critic.

“Maryland is very much in play,” Sen. Steve Daines (R-MT), the chairman of the National Republican Senatorial Committee who noted a CNN pundit called Hogan a “nightmare” for Democrats the day he launched his run, said.

“Larry Hogan is a maverick. That’s how he governed, as governor of Maryland; that’s how he will govern as a U.S. senator for Maryland, not beholden to either party or any president but representing Maryland exceptionally well,” Daines said.

At minimum, his entrance will force Democrats to spend valuable resources they would prefer to commit elsewhere.

Rep. David Trone (R-MD), a liquor magnate who challenged Alsobrooks for the Democratic nomination, spent $60 million of his own money in the primary. His Tuesday loss deprives the party of a self-funder willing to dole out seemingly endless sums to protect the seat.

Cardin predicted Alsobrooks will be fine on the fundraising front. He’s already committed to raising money on her behalf and believes other state leaders will do the same.

“We’ll expect some national help, don’t get me wrong, but we’re gonna take responsibility also to raise money for the Alsobrooks campaign,” he said.

Sen. Gary Peters (D-MI), who leads Senate Democrats’ campaign arm, asserted that “we’ll do whatever it takes” to ensure Alsobrooks wins, while Daines said Maryland is “going to be a closely watched race” when asked about investing NRSC resources.

Cardin stayed on the sidelines during the primary, reasoning that either Democrat, Trone or Alsobrooks, could defeat Hogan in November. But he believes Alsobrooks is uniquely positioned to “excite” the Maryland electorate given her background and appeals to younger voters.

Maryland has never been represented by a black senator, while the number of women in the state’s congressional delegation could jump from zero to three after Democrats Sarah Elfreth and April Delaney won their House primaries on Tuesday.

“I think she has a lot going for her that will help us,” Cardin said of Alsobrooks.

Pollsters had been predicting a tight primary, but Alsobrooks won comfortably. The final poll before Election Day had her ahead by 3 points in a race she won by 12.

For months, Alsobrooks has lagged in the polls against Hogan. Republicans cite these surveys to project confidence in their candidate, plus Trone’s declaration that Alsobrooks has no “chance in this world” of beating Hogan.

However, Alsobrooks had some good news in the latest Emerson poll, released last week, that found her ahead by 10 points.

Ultimately, Democrats are betting they can paint Hogan as a rubberstamp for the Republicans, noting the distinct possibility there could be a Supreme Court vacancy in the next six years.

Hogan has defied the odds before. He won his first gubernatorial race in 2014 despite lagging in fundraising. The Democrat in that race, then-Lt. Gov. Anthony Brown, even benefited from political heavyweights campaigning for him, including President Barack Obama.

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But Cardin, who will retire after 18 years in the Senate and two decades in the House, predicted Marylanders would come home to the Democrats as the race shifts to the general election. He won his last reelection bid by 34 points.

“At the end of the day, this is a national election. Marylanders are going to vote for Angela because of her record, her experience, her qualifications, and they recognize that you don’t want Donald Trump and the Republicans to control the agenda of the United States Senate,” Cardin said.