Yet, GOP leaders are bullish it can still be done, especially if reconciliation is a vehicle to advance other legislative priorities before the 2026 midterm elections. Johnson told reporters at a press conference Tuesday that reconciliation could be a catch-all for everything from tackling affordability to rooting out fraud in Minnesota.

“I have been a champion for reconciliation as one of the important tools in the toolbox, so to speak, or one of the plays in the playbook, using the metaphor,” Johnson said, referencing football. “And I think that we can come together and envision a Venn diagram as I do: What are those handbook issues that are in the center of those concentric circles that is something that every Republican can agree on, that is great things for the country.

“I think the central theme of all this is, we continue to have our sleeves rolled up every day, working to lower the cost of living for everyone, because it’s a central issue, and also to stamp out waste, fraud, and abuse. … We can use, potentially, reconciliation as a vehicle to address some of that,” the speaker said. 

The Republican Study Committee has put out its own “reconciliation 2.0” blueprint focused on affordability, healthcare, and energy. Republican Study Committee Chairman August Pfluger (R-TX) told the Washington Examiner in an interview that he thinks reconciliation may be the only way to enact meaningful reform given the partisanship in the House.

“Democrats are not going to help us on anything. … We can’t count on their vote,” Pfluger said, pointing to the ongoing partial government shutdown over Homeland Security as one example. “We’d love to have a bipartisan solution on different things, but they’ve shown the willingness to make it a completely partisan Congress at this point.”

Republicans remain cautious on likelihood of a reconciliation 2.0

Passing a second reconciliation bill was already going to be difficult prior to Trump’s remarks, and time is not on Republicans’ side. 

The One Big Beautiful Bill Act, the GOP’s first reconciliation bill, took seven months to be signed into law. The party has since had difficulty messaging the contents of that bill, with leaders advocating its members to rebrand it the “Working Families Tax Cut” to strengthen their affordability messaging.

“The reality is that Republicans may be legislating on borrowed time,” Republican strategist Dennis Lennox told the Washington Examiner. “If the majority flips in November, there will be virtually no lawmaking for the next two years beyond keeping the government open and even then they can’t seem to do that. The only real constraint on a second reconciliation bill is whether House Republicans can pass it.”

Complex roadblocks already exist in the reconciliation process, which allows the majority to sidestep the Senate’s 60-vote filibuster. Rules and restrictions under the watch of the Senate parliamentarian make it more difficult to include certain policies in the legislation.

Margins are also troubling. When the first reconciliation legislation passed, Republicans had a three-seat majority. Two Republican members, Reps. Thomas Massie (R-KY) and Brian Fitzpatrick (R-PA), voted against the bill. But now Johnson is operating under a one-seat majority, and Massie is all but assured to be a “no” vote.

Ways and Means Committee Chairman Jason Smith (R-MO) is the most senior Republican committee chairman to publicly express doubt that another reconciliation bill can be passed.

“If you look at history, it is extremely rare for two partisan reconciliation bills to ever pass in the same Congress, extremely rare,” Smith said. “And so I would absolutely love a second reconciliation bill. I would love that, but I just don’t think it will ever happen.” 

Smith said he knows “the members” and that the votes just weren’t there at the moment for another big tax and spending bill.

“There was no one that had to thread a needle more than me in the big, beautiful bill,” the chairman said. “I was able to do it. The question is, there [were] two Republicans that voted against that bill. If two Republicans vote against this bill, it won’t pass, because we have a smaller, smaller majority. So will those two vote for it? You should ask them.”

The Washington Examiner reached out to Fitzpatrick and Massie for comment.

Johnson said during a fireside chat with reporters on Tuesday afternoon that he’s “a little more optimistic” than Smith and, he has reminded his members to “be realistic.”

“It will not be as big, but it can be just as beautiful,” Johnson said.

The speaker said he has three pages of possible policies that could make it into a reconciliation bill, and he’s looking to whittle that list down based on what does not have “a 100% buy-in” from the majority of his conference.

House Appropriations Committee Chairman Tom Cole (R-OK) told the Washington Examiner he also thinks it will “be a big battle” passing a second reconciliation bill, “mostly just because of the narrow margin.” 

Cole went on to say that he doesn’t have “any doubt” leadership can get the first 200 votes “pretty quickly,” but the “real challenge is, how do you get the last 10?” 

During the first reconciliation bill, leadership had to battle warring factions that each wanted to put their imprint on the legislation. Conservatives pushed for millions in cuts, while centrist members in purple districts begged leaders to be reasonable and realistic about how the cuts would affect their reelection bids and constituents. These discussions resulted in marathon votes as back-and-forth negotiations carried on well into the night.

Cole told reporters he thinks the bill can ultimately get passed, “if we can agree what it is.”

Pfluger said he would want the reconciliation bill to focus mainly on healthcare and “unwinding the horrible nature of the Unaffordable Care Act,” Republicans’ moniker for Obamacare.

Despite some hesitancy over the realistic nature of passing a second bill, House Budget Committee Chairman Jodey Arrington (R-TX) said on Tuesday he plans to hold a markup of a budget resolution, the first step toward a reconciliation bill, in the next 30 days. 

“I just think we have eight more months, and that’s a lot of time to govern,” Arrington told the Washington Examiner. “It’s a lot of time to legislate the reforms that our country needs.”

Arrington, who is retiring after this term, said he thinks the time is now, because it was unlikely a reconciliation bill could move after the spring.

“The closer we get to November, the more sensitive some of our members will be, but right now, I totally see a path, and it won’t be as comprehensive as the first one,” Arrington said.

Pfluger praised Arrington’s decision to move a resolution in the next 30 days in a statement to the Washington Examiner, arguing that House Republicans need to move “fast” on a second reconciliation bill.

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“Chairman Arrington moving on a budget resolution with potential instructions in the next 30 days is exactly the momentum we need right now in the House,” Pfluger said. “We cannot slow walk this.

“We do not have a guaranteed majority forever, and we do not have 60 votes in the Senate, so reconciliation is the only path to getting legislation to President Trump’s desk,” he said.

Ramsey Touchberry contributed to this report.