Will Hezbollah join Israel’s war?
Israel’s Concerns Shift to Hezbollah Amidst Conflict with Hamas
Following the outbreak of war with Hamas, Israel finds itself facing more than just the group that surprised them with a sudden attack. The real worry for Israeli analysts lies across the northern border, with Hezbollah.
Hezbollah, which emerged during Lebanon’s civil war in the 1980s, has grown to become the dominant force in the country, surpassing the Lebanese state’s own army. The ongoing conflict has forced Israeli war plans to consider the possibility of Hezbollah joining the fray, with reports suggesting that an invasion of the Gaza Strip was called off due to concerns about the group.
Hezbollah and Israel have already engaged in limited exchanges of rockets, airstrikes, artillery fire, and small arms fire across the Lebanese border since the start of the Gaza War. However, experts fear that this could escalate further.
Unveiling Hezbollah’s Strength and Capabilities
The Washington Examiner spoke with Jonathan Schanzer, senior vice president of the Foundation for the Defense of Democracies, to gain better insight into Hezbollah’s military might.
“Hezbollah’s military power is believed to be on par with that of a medium-sized European country,” Schanzer revealed.
In terms of manpower, Schanzer estimates that Hezbollah has between 30,000 to 50,000 fighters who are trained to varying degrees. This number could potentially double when considering affiliated individuals who could be deployed. The group has gained valuable training, intelligence, and tactics from their involvement in conflicts alongside the Russians in Syria, as well as their experiences in Iraq and possibly Yemen.
When it comes to firepower, Hezbollah possesses a minimum of 150,000 rockets, predominantly supplied by Iran. These rockets range in quality from short-range and inaccurate to long-range and deadly accurate missiles. Of particular concern are their Precision Guided Munitions, capable of striking Israel with great accuracy from significant distances. Schanzer estimates that Hezbollah has anywhere from 500 to 1,000 of these weapons in their arsenal.
One of the most worrisome aspects for the United States, should they become involved, is Hezbollah’s anti-ship capabilities. The group has demonstrated some success in using these weapons against targets near the shoreline during the 2006 Lebanon War. However, the current extent of their anti-ship capabilities remains largely unknown, and the potential damage to U.S. carriers would depend on their proximity to the shoreline.
The Likelihood of Hezbollah Joining the Conflict
The intelligence community is grappling with the million-dollar question of whether Hezbollah would follow through on its threats and open up a second front against Israel in the event of a ground invasion of Gaza. The primary deterrent lies in the knowledge that Israel would inflict unprecedented destruction upon Lebanon in another war. However, Hezbollah’s legitimacy heavily relies on being a counterforce to Israel, and their prestige would suffer greatly if they stood idly by while Hamas was destroyed.
Ultimately, the final decision rests with Ali Khamenei, the supreme leader of Iran, as Schanzer points out.
“There is a very real potential for escalation. The decision to enter into a multi-front conflict will largely be determined by the supreme leader of Iran,” Schanzer explained. “Some believe that, given his age and health, he may be trying to stoke a war with Israel as the culmination of his life’s work.”
While some may argue that the prospect of Lebanon’s destruction would be too great to overcome, others see the present situation as the very reason Hezbollah was created.
“I think that Hezbollah was made for this moment and would very much like to go in, and Iran probably would welcome it, if not even urge it,” Schanzer stated.
According to Schanzer, the current level of escalation suggests a strong possibility of Hezbollah’s intervention.
“Given their inclinations and temptations, I believe there is an above-average chance of a multifront war, especially after the Oct. 7 attack by Hamas,” Schanzer concluded.
Click here to read more from The Washington Examiner.
What measures has Israel taken to respond to the Hezbollah threat, both militarily and diplomatically
R, since then, they have likely acquired more advanced systems, which could pose a significant threat to maritime security in the region.
The Threat Hezbollah Poses for Israel
Hezbollah’s close alliance with Iran is a significant factor in Israel’s concerns. Iran is known for its support of various militant groups in the region, including Hamas, and Hezbollah acts as a proxy for Iranian interests. Their close relationship provides Hezbollah with significant financial and military backing, enabling them to maintain their military capabilities and constantly acquire more advanced weapons.
Hezbollah’s location on Israel’s northern border poses a constant security threat. The potential for cross-border attacks, rocket launches, and acts of terrorism is always present. The group’s extensive tunnel network, which they have constructed over the years, further enhances their ability to launch surprise attacks into Israeli territory. This has been a major concern for Israeli defense planners, as it poses a significant challenge in terms of border security.
Furthermore, Hezbollah’s involvement in the ongoing conflicts in Syria and Iraq has raised concerns about their combat experience and the potential for battle-hardened fighters to return to Lebanon. This poses the risk of not only strengthening Hezbollah’s capabilities but also potential spillover into further conflict with Israel.
Israel’s Response to the Hezbollah Threat
Israel has not been idle in the face of the Hezbollah threat. The Israeli Defense Forces have been actively monitoring Hezbollah’s activities along the Lebanese border, conducting airstrikes and targeted operations when necessary. They have also invested in developing sophisticated missile defense systems, such as the Iron Dome, which has proved effective in intercepting rockets launched by Hezbollah and other militant groups.
In addition to military measures, Israel has also pursued diplomatic and political efforts to counteract Hezbollah’s influence. Israel has sought to rally international support to designate Hezbollah as a terrorist organization and has urged countries to sanction Iran for its support of the group. These efforts aim to isolate Hezbollah and limit its ability to operate freely.
The Complexity of the Threat
Dealing with the Hezbollah threat is not a simple task. The group’s intertwining network of political, military, and social influence within Lebanon makes it difficult to confront directly. Any action taken against Hezbollah must consider the potential consequences for stability within Lebanon and the broader region.
At the same time, Israel cannot afford to ignore or downplay the Hezbollah threat. With their extensive military capabilities and proximity to Israeli territory, the potential for a major escalation in conflict is always present. Therefore, Israel must maintain a careful balance between deterring Hezbollah’s aggression and avoiding actions that could lead to an all-out war.
Conclusion
While the conflict with Hamas has been the immediate focus for Israel, the concerns surrounding Hezbollah cannot be overlooked. The group’s military capabilities and close alliance with Iran pose a significant security threat for Israel. Therefore, Israel must remain vigilant and continue to develop strategies and measures to counteract this threat. At the same time, diplomatic efforts to isolate Hezbollah and limit its influence should also be pursued. Dealing with Hezbollah requires a comprehensive approach that considers the complex dynamics of the region and balances the need for security with the aim of avoiding broader conflict.
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