Will Hezbollah join Israel’s war?
Israel’s Concerns Shift to Hezbollah Amidst Conflict with Hamas
Following the outbreak of war with Hamas, Israel finds itself facing a new and formidable threat – Hezbollah. While the initial shock came from the group that started the conflict, Israeli analysts are now more worried about the powerful force across the northern border.
Hezbollah, which emerged during Lebanon’s civil war in the 1980s, has grown to become the dominant force in the country, surpassing the Lebanese state’s own army. The current conflict has forced Israeli war plans to consider the possibility of Hezbollah joining the fray. In fact, reports suggest that an Israeli Defense Forces invasion of the Gaza Strip was called off due to concerns about the group.
Hezbollah and Israel have already engaged in limited exchanges of rockets, air strikes, artillery fire, and small arms fire across the Lebanese border since the beginning of the Gaza War. However, experts fear that this could escalate into something more significant.
To gain a better understanding of Hezbollah’s strength and capabilities, The Washington Examiner spoke with Jonathan Schanzer, senior vice president of the Foundation for the Defense of Democracies.
Unveiling Hezbollah’s Might
According to Schanzer, Hezbollah’s military might is believed to be on par with that of a medium-sized European country. In terms of manpower, the group has an estimated 30,000-50,000 fighters who are trained to varying degrees. This number could potentially double when considering affiliated individuals who could be deployed. Hezbollah has gained valuable training, intelligence, and tactics from its involvement in conflicts alongside the Russians in Syria, as well as its experiences in Iraq and possibly Yemen.
When it comes to firepower, Hezbollah possesses a minimum of 150,000 rockets, predominantly supplied by Iran. These rockets range in quality from short-range and inaccurate to long-range and deadly accurate. Of particular concern are their Precision Guided Munitions, which have the capability to strike Israel with great accuracy from long distances. Schanzer estimates that Hezbollah has between 500-1,000 of these weapons in its arsenal.
One aspect that raises alarm for the United States is Hezbollah’s anti-ship capabilities. While the group has demonstrated some success in using these weapons against shoreline targets during the 2006 Lebanon War, the extent of their current anti-ship capabilities remains largely unknown. The potential damage to U.S. carriers would depend on their proximity to the shoreline.
The Question of Hezbollah’s Involvement
The intelligence community is grappling with the million-dollar question of whether Hezbollah would follow through on its threats and open up a second front against Israel in the event of a ground invasion of Gaza. The main deterrent for Hezbollah is the knowledge that Israel would inflict unprecedented destruction upon Lebanon in another war. However, the group’s legitimacy rests on being a counterforce to Israel, and it would suffer a significant blow to its prestige if it refrained from action while Hamas was destroyed.
Ultimately, the final decision lies with Ali Khamenei, the supreme leader of Iran. Schanzer suggests that there is a real potential for escalation, with the supreme leader possibly seeking to stoke a war with Israel as the culmination of his life’s work. While some believe that the prospect of Lebanon’s destruction would be too great to overcome, others see the present situation as the very reason Hezbollah was created.
According to Schanzer, the current level of escalations indicates a strong possibility that Hezbollah is actively seeking to intervene. “I think there is an above-average chance of a multi-front war, given their inclinations and temptations,” he said, alluding to the recent attack by Hamas on October 7th as a potential catalyst.
Click here to read more from The Washington Examiner.
What steps has Israel taken to detect and neutralize Hezbollah’s tunnels and fortifications along the Lebanese-Israeli border? How effective have these measures been?
Acy. These weapons pose a serious threat to Israeli infrastructure and population centers.
Hezbollah has also invested heavily in underground tunnels and defensive fortifications along the Lebanese-Israeli border. These tunnels serve a dual purpose; they can be used for offensive operations, such as infiltrating Israeli territory, and for defensive purposes, providing shelter for Hezbollah fighters and storing weapons. Israel has been taking steps to detect and neutralize these tunnels, but it remains a challenging task.
Furthermore, Hezbollah has developed a sophisticated intelligence network, which allows them to gather information on Israeli targets and potential vulnerabilities. They have also acquired anti-aircraft and anti-ship missiles, increasing their capacity to defend against Israeli airstrikes and naval attacks.
Israel’s Concerns
The threat posed by Hezbollah is a cause for significant concern for Israeli defense planners. While Hamas is considered a formidable adversary, Hezbollah’s capabilities far exceed those of the Palestinian group. Israel is worried that Hezbollah could launch a simultaneous attack from the north, stretching its defense resources and leaving it vulnerable on multiple fronts.
There is also the concern that Hezbollah could become further emboldened by the conflict with Hamas and use it as an opportunity to assert its dominance in the region. An escalation of conflict between Israel and Hezbollah could have far-reaching consequences, drawing in other regional players and potentially sparking a wider conflict.
Israel’s response to the threat posed by Hezbollah has been multifaceted. It has invested heavily in missile defense systems, such as the Iron Dome, to protect against rocket attacks. Israel has also carried out airstrikes targeting Hezbollah weapons convoys in Syria, aiming to disrupt their supply chain and capabilities.
Additionally, Israel has been engaging in diplomatic efforts to gain international support in addressing the Hezbollah threat. Israeli officials have been briefing foreign counterparts, highlighting the danger posed by Hezbollah’s growing arsenal and emphasizing the need for action to prevent a future confrontation.
The Way Forward
The conflict with Hamas has shifted Israel’s concerns to Hezbollah, a formidable and well-equipped adversary. The threat posed by the Lebanese group goes beyond Israel’s immediate borders, with potential ripple effects throughout the region.
Addressing the Hezbollah threat requires a comprehensive approach that combines military preparedness, intelligence gathering, and diplomatic efforts. Israel must continue investing in defense systems, improving intelligence capabilities, and building international support to counter the growing power of Hezbollah.
Moreover, efforts should be made to address the underlying causes and grievances that allow Hezbollah to maintain its influence in Lebanon. A stable and prosperous Lebanon, free from the grip of Hezbollah, would greatly contribute to regional peace and security.
The conflict with Hamas serves as a reminder that Israel’s security challenges are multifaceted and constantly evolving. As the focus shifts to Hezbollah, it is crucial for Israeli defense planners and policymakers to remain vigilant and proactive in addressing the threats that loom on the northern border.
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