Key Points to Watch in Indiana’s Primary Election on Tuesday

Open seats in both Congress and the governor’s mansion don’t come around too often — and multiple vacancies in the Hoosier State have drawn a record number of GOP contenders and outside money in the primary coming up on Tuesday.

By November, more than half of Indiana’s congressional delegation could be brand new after vacancies in the 3rd, 6th, and 8th Districts have drawn multiple contenders. One of the most competitive races is playing out in the 5th District after Rep. Victoria Spartz (R-IN) reversed her decision and filed to run for reelection. However, by then, at least seven other Republicans had already filed to run for her seat.

Six Republicans are facing off to be the Republican nominee for governor, as Gov. Eric Holcomb (R-IN) is term-limited after serving eight years in office. The state has now seen a record-breaking $98 million spent ahead of the primaries, according to AdImpact. About 46% of that cash has been spent on Indiana’s gubernatorial primary, while 49% has been spent on House and down-ballot racess.

Here are some critical things to watch for in the Hoosier State on Tuesday:

Will Rep. Victoria Spartz lose her seat?

Spartz, the first and only Ukrainian-born member of Congress, is now fighting for her political life after waffling on her reelection decision. At least seven other Republicans had already filed to run for her seat by the time she reversed her decision.

Spartz is facing state Rep. Chuck Goodrich, businessman and speech pathologist Raju Chinthala, Max Engling, attorney Mark Hurt, CPA Patrick Malayter, Matthew Peiffer, Larry Savage, and veteran L.D. Powell. Recent polling averages show a close race between Spartz and Goodrich.

In the final weeks of the campaign, Spartz dumped $700,000 of her own money into her campaign after being significantly outspent by Goodrich, who bankrolled his campaign with $4.6 million from his own pockets, according to federal campaign finance numbers.

Can a former congressman make a comeback in the 3rd District?

Based in Fort Wayne, Indiana, this district in the northeastern part of the state has a crowded primary to succeed Rep. Jim Banks (R-IN), who is running for Senate.

Marlin Stutzman represented the 3rd District for three terms before stepping away for an unsuccessful Senate run and is trying for a comeback.

The race includes Tim Smith, who leads a “Christ-centered family services provider,” according to his campaign website, former Allen County Circuit Court Judge Wendy Davis, and state Sen. Andy Zay. The race also includes construction project manager Grant Bucher, veteran and congressional staffer Jon Kenworthy, manufacturing worker Eric Whalen, and maintenance technician Mike Felker.

“We have a tendency to recycle our politicians here, it’s a shallow pool,” said Laura Merrifield Wilson, an associate professor of political science at the University of Indianapolis. “That’s not to say there isn’t a lot of talent, but there are just names that come up over and over again.”

Will self-fundraisers prevail in the 6th District?

A major race to watch is the 6th District where Rep. Greg Pence (R-IN) is retiring. Seven Republicans made the ballot to take over the safe GOP district.

The race includes wealthy businessman Jefferson Shreve, state Rep. Mike Speedy, state Sen. Jeff Raatz, former state Rep. John Jacob, Jamison Carrier, Wayne County Republican Darin Childress, and businessman Bill Frazier.

Shreve has put $5.6 million into his campaign, while Speedy loaned himself $1.5 million, and Carrier contributed $750,000, according to campaign finance records.

“Clearly, people see the importance and impact that money can make in terms of mobilization, in terms of communication, in terms of polling and being able to, of course, get voters out to the polls,” Wilson said.

Will pro-Israel groups make an impact in the 8th District?

When Rep. Larry Buschon (R-IN) announced he was leaving his safe Republican seat in early January, 14 candidates jumped into the race in southwestern Indiana.

Candidates include John Hostettler, who represented the district from 1995 to 2007, state Sen. Mark Messmer, Jim Case, Dominick Kavanaugh, who worked on Trump’s campaign and in his administration, Luke Misner, and surgeon Richard Moss. Other candidates include Kristi Risk, who leads the Owen County Republican Party, Erik Hurt, veteran Peter Priest II, musician Edward Upton Sein, and school bus driver Michael Talarzyk.

Outside groups have spent $5.6 million in the race, including $2.8 million against Hostettler. A super PAC affiliated with the American Israel Public Affairs Committee paid for a 30-second ad that hits Hostettler for voting against a 2000 resolution expressing support for Israel and condemning Palestinian leaders over the violence of the second intifada. The ad also cites his numerous votes against providing military aid to Israel. A group aligned with the Republican Jewish Coalition spent $955,000 in support of Messmer.

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Who will challenge Rep. Frank Mrvan in the 1st District?

Republicans are once again working to defeat Rep. Frank Mrvan (D-IN) in northwest Indiana, which has trended more red over the last decade.

Businessman Mark Leyva is running against Lake County Councilman Randy Niemeyer and business owner David Ben Ruiz. The Cook Political Report ranks the race as “Lean Democrat.”