Impact of Yevgeny Prigozhin’s demise on Wagner group and Russia’s war effort.
The Uncertain Future of Wagner: What Comes Next for Russia’s Infamous Mercenary Group?
With the recent death of its leader, Yevgeny Prigozhin, the Wagner private military company finds itself at a crossroads. The tragic plane crash that claimed the lives of Prigozhin and Dmitry Utkin, the likely true military head of the group, has left Wagner in a state of uncertainty. As the organization had already left Ukraine following a mutiny in June, it remains a powerful force with thousands of fighters scattered across Belarus and Africa. However, with the decapitation of the group due to the plane crash, speculation abounds regarding the future of Russia’s most infamous mercenary group.
The Far-Reaching Missions of Wagner
Prior to the mutiny, Wagner had a reputation for unwavering loyalty to the Russian state, carrying out Moscow’s interests in Syria, Africa, and Ukraine. According to Russia expert Stephen J. Blank, Wagner’s missions go beyond the typical scope of mercenary groups, encompassing a wide variety of sectors. Blank explains that Wagner’s operations are not solely military in nature, but also encompass economic and political endeavors. For instance, the group has been involved in information warfare in Africa, providing what could be described as “government in a box” services abroad.
The Benefits and Importance of Wagner to Russia
The benefits derived from Wagner are so significant for Russia that experts believe President Vladimir Putin is unlikely to completely dismantle the group. As one senior Eastern European official stated, Putin has gained power projection at a relatively low cost and with some degree of deniability through Wagner’s activities in Mali and the Central African Republic. Africa plays a crucial role in Putin’s wider strategy, which involves proving that he is not isolated, circumventing Western economic sanctions, and rebuilding his forces through Wagner. The recent uprising led by Prigozhin necessitated a clarification of Russia’s partnership with African countries, which has now been achieved.
The Future of Wagner: Integration into the Russian Army
In the short term, it is anticipated that Russian military commanders will assume the positions previously held by Prigozhin and Utkin, seeking to bring Wagner under the control of the Russian Army. This move aims to enable the commanders to access the funds that were previously allocated to Prigozhin and the Kremlin. According to Blank, the Russian army will attempt to incorporate Wagner into its ranks for missions in Africa and other regions. This transition may prompt Wagner fighters to decide whether to remain with the group or leave, torn between loyalty to their former leaders and the new leadership. Blank suggests that many may choose to leave, but those who stay are likely to be loyal to the new command.
Return to Ukraine and the Impact of Leadership Loss
Regarding a potential return to Ukraine, Blank believes it would only be possible if Wagner fighters agree to be subordinate to army commanders. The deaths of Prigozhin and Utkin have dealt a significant blow to the effectiveness of Wagner. Experts agree that the organization is now unable to function independently, and its absorption into the Russian military is unlikely to recreate the resource network that allowed Prigozhin to build such a formidable fighting force.
Belarus and the Future of Wagner
Belarus seems to be the future base for Wagner, as many fighters were exiled there after the failed mutiny in June. Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko has dismissed calls to expel the group, pledging that they will remain in the country. Some Russian analysts interpret recent foreign trips by the Russian Defense Ministry to African countries with a known Wagner presence as a sign that the government is seeking to replace Wagner with its own formations under complete military control.
Wagner’s official media outlets, affiliated channels, and fighters have largely remained silent or focused solely on mourning their leaders since the plane crash. Notably, there is little speculation about the crash’s cause, despite widespread rumors implicating the Kremlin.
As for Prigozhin, his press service released a statement announcing his funeral without providing further details.
Despite the uncertainty surrounding Wagner’s future, many Russians continue to hold affection for the group, with impromptu memorials appearing throughout the country. In a show of support, a school in Balashikha, near Moscow, has even been renamed after a Wagner fighter who lost his life in December near Bakhmut.
For more news and analysis, visit The Washington Examiner.
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