House lawmakers abandoning ship for higher office muddle 2026 map – Washington Examiner
Several lawmakers from both the House of Representatives are opting not to run for reelection as they pursue higher office positions, such as Senate seats and governorships. This move complicates the political landscape as both Democrats, aiming to regain majority control, and Republicans, striving to maintain their slim majority, prepare for the 2026 midterm elections.
Among the Democrats, Representative Angie Craig of Minnesota is seeking the Senate seat vacated by Senator Tina Smith, while chris Pappas of New Hampshire has also announced his Senate candidacy. On the Republican side, Representatives Byron Donalds (FL), John Rose (TN), and John James (MI) are running for governor. The decisions of these lawmakers to leave the House create opportunities for both parties, particularly in competitive districts that could flip during the elections.
The article emphasizes the stakes involved in these elections, noting that the Democrats need to gain only three seats to regain control, while the Republicans face the challenge of defending their narrow three-seat majority amidst potential infighting and candidate departures. As various lawmakers announce their future political ambitions, speculation grows about who may challenge incumbents or former colleagues, adding to the evolving dynamics of the upcoming elections.
House lawmakers abandoning ship for higher office muddle 2026 map
Several House lawmakers are forgoing reelection to seek a statewide executive position or Senate seat, putting both parties on defense as Democrats seek to flip the chamber and Republicans seek to widen their razor-thin majority.
The 2026 midterm battleground was already anticipated to be a close fight. Though Democrats are defending 10 more competitive seats than the GOP, they only need a net gain of three to recover the majority.
But within the last few weeks, a handful of House Democrats and Republicans have announced they will not seek another term in the lower chamber, some of whom represent competitive districts that are now prime targets of the opposing side.
At least three Democrats have launched bids for other offices since the start of 2025.
Rep. Angie Craig (D-MN) announced on Tuesday that she was running for the Senate seat that will be left vacant by Sen. Tina Smith (D-MN). Rep. Chris Pappas (D-NH) announced in early April that he would also run for the Senate, leaving his House seat vulnerable to a possible GOP flip. Rep. Haley Stevens (D-MI) is running for governor, she announced last week.
Reps. Josh Gottheimer (D-NJ) and Mikie Sherrill (D-NJ) both announced last year that they are running for governor, but they can remain in Congress while launching a gubernatorial bid. Gottheimer’s seat is considered “likely Democrat” by the nonpartisan Cook Political Report.
On the Republican side, Rep. Byron Donalds (R-FL), John Rose (R-TN), and John James (R-MI) have announced this year that they are running for governor in their respective states. Rep. Andy Barr (R-KY) is running to replace retiring Sen. Mitch McConnell (R-KY).
Of the six lawmakers who announced they are departing the House this year, only two, James and Pappas, are leaving behind strong pickup opportunities for the opposing party.
James represents Michigan’s 10th Congressional District, which is rated “lean Republican.” He and President Donald Trump won the district by 6 points in 2024. But in a midterm election without an incumbent or the president at the top of the ticket, it could be easier for Democrats to flip the seat.
Pappas’s seat, New Hampshire’s 1st District, is rated “likely Democrat” but is one of the House Republican campaign arm’s top 2026 targets and the more competitive of the Granite State’s two House seats. Democrats have held the district since 2017, though it previously flipped between the two parties.
Republicans have insisted they are on offense this year, planning to grow their slim three-seat majority that makes passing legislation difficult due to the level of infighting between House GOP leaders and conservative fiscal hawks.
The razor-thin margins have already forced Republicans aspiring to ascend to the Trump administration to give up on their dreams this year. The president pulled Rep. Elise Stefanik’s (R-NY) nomination to become the U.S. ambassador to the United Nations over concerns that her vacancy would put Speaker Mike Johnson (R-LA) in a bind as he tries to pass contentious bills without Democratic support.
But Stefanik may choose to leave the House anyway, no longer amenable to sacrificing her opportunities to help out her House Republican colleagues because of a razor-thin majority.
Shortly after losing her shot at the ambassadorship, Trump allies and New York Republicans encouraged Stefanik to run for New York governor. A public spat between the New York congresswoman and the speaker over whether they had spoken about her plans highlighted some tension within the GOP leadership ranks on Tuesday.
Rep. Mike Lawler (R-NY) may also launch a bid for the New York governor’s race. While Stefanik leads a solid red district, Lawler’s seat is one of the most competitive in the country and one of three seats won by former Vice President Kamala Harris in the 2024 election.
His departure would be a tough loss for Johnson and a gamble for the GOP to see if they can keep it from flipping. Democrats flipped three seats in New York in 2024, and the party hopes to continue the trend in the midterm elections.
Eyes are on other lawmakers to see whether they will launch bids to challenge incumbents or face former colleagues. Rep. Bill Huizenga (R-MI) is stoking speculation that he may challenge former Rep. Mike Rogers for the GOP nomination to run for the open Senate seat left vacant by Sen. Gary Peters (D-MI).
With Sen. Dick Durbin (D-IL) retiring, eyes are on House Democrats like Reps. Raja Krishnamoorthi (D-IL), Robin Kelly (D-IL), and Lauren Underwood (D-IL) to see if they launch bids to replace him. All three seats are considered to be “safe Democrat.”
There is some speculation on whether Rep. Don Bacon (R-NE), another Republican in a Harris-won district, will seek another term in Congress. He told the Nebraska Examiner that he will consult with his family, and he will announce his decision this summer.
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Many Democrats have tried and failed to oust the centrist GOP lawmaker, whose Omaha seat is purple and gave it’s one electoral vote to former President Joe Biden in 2020 and Harris in 2024 — despite Trump winning Nebraska’s four remaining electoral votes, two for the popular vote and two for the 1st and 3rd District, both cycles.
But the absence of an incumbent could give Democrats an edge to capture Nebraska’s 2nd District, which hasn’t been held by the party since former Rep. Brad Ashford. He served one term from 2015 to 2017 before being ousted by Bacon.
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