Daniel Garza, president of right-leaning Latino organization LIBRE Initiative, predicted Latino support for Trump and Republicans would reach “an inflection point” next spring, depending on the economy. 

“A lot is going to depend also on what recent legislation, what direction it’s going to take the economy,” Garza told the Washington Examiner. “A lot of bets were placed on the Big, Beautiful Bill, and so if things start trending upward, I think it’s going to be good results for Republicans. If things start trending downward economically, then it’s going to be buckle up time for the Republicans.”

Democrats are sensing the same opportunity to capitalize on the dissipation of Latino support for Trump next year, particularly considering Republicans only have a two-seat majority in the House.

There has been “serious slippage” in Latino support for Trump, especially among Latinas who disagree with the president’s style, priorities, and policies, according to Democratic pollster Celinda Lake.

“They especially disagree with education policy,” Lake told the Washington Examiner. “Latinos also feel this is Trump’s economy, and it’s failing. This erosion will be a serious problem for Republicans in 2026 and 2028, and a blow to a strategy started by George Bush in Texas to make inroads among Latinos.”

For example, a poll by liberal group Somos Votantes that concluded earlier this month, before being published this week, found Trump’s popularity and approval among Latinos is decreasing, with his economic approval at net negative 26 percentage points, 36% approve-62% disapprove.

Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee spokeswoman Courtney Rice agreed with Lake, contending House Democrats overperformed among Latino voters during last year’s election.

In 2024, Democrats won four Republican-held House congressional districts with large Latino populations, including California’s 13th, 27th, and 45th districts, in addition to New York’s 4th district. Democrats also won reelection in three House districts that Trump flipped, including Texas’s 28th and 34th districts, as well as New Mexico’s 2nd district. Meanwhile, Republicans won Democratic-held Colorado’s 8th and Pennsylvania’s 7th districts.

“House Democrats were successful despite the top of the ticket shift to Trump because of our laser focus on economic issues like lowering costs,” Rice told the Washington Examiner. “That focus, contrasted against the Republican record of broken promises, which is already driving a massive erosion of Latino support, is how we’ll defend our frontliners and flip Republican-held seats on our way to winning back the House in 2026.”

In the 2024 election, Trump won Latino men by about 10 points, a dramatic shift from 2020 when Joe Biden carried Latino men by 23 percentage points, according to exit data by Edison Research.

National Republican Congressional Committee Hispanic press secretary Christian Martinez said, “Democrats have failed to reverse the trend of losing Hispanic voters because they’ve failed to deliver.” 

“Republicans are earning their vote every day by lowering the cost of living, securing our communities, and expanding opportunities to achieve the American Dream,” Martinez told the Washington Examiner.

While immigration has historically been a voting issue for Latinos, LIBRE Initiative’s Garza, who advised Republicans Latinos have “not solidified” nor are they “locked in” around the party, said it depends on the voter’s own immigration status or experience regarding whether they support Trump’s immigration policies or not. 

For Garza, the economy is more significant, citing a poll conducted in May by sister organization LIBRE Institute that found the economy and jobs are the most pressing concern for a plurality of Latino voters at 47%, with another 35% naming inflation. Threats to American democracy were the primary concern for 21% of survey respondents, whereas it was taxes and spending for another 17%. 

The poll also found that 51% of respondents perceive the current state of the economy as poor, and 61% express a lack of confidence that the economy will improve next year. 

Garza said Republicans need to better showcase the benefits of the One Big Beautiful Bill.

“I think they need to do a marketing job that is going to be far superior than what the left is doing because the left is coming full blast on this, you know, trying to undermine the president’s legislation,” Garza said.

To that end, the Democratic National Committee on Wednesday started a new campaign amplifying the economic consequences of Trump for Latinos, coinciding with Hispanic Heritage Month.

“Democrats are reminding Latinos of Republicans’ disastrous policies by ramping up bilingual organizing, driving voter registration, mobilizing Spanish-language volunteer efforts for Prop 50 in California, and investing early in key states like Virginia and New Jersey,” DNC senior spokesman Marcus Robinson told the Washington Examiner.

“Latinos know Trump’s agenda means higher costs, lost healthcare, and scapegoating immigrants, and that’s why Democrats are showing up in communities to ensure Latino voters, not Trump’s rigged system, decide this election,” Robinson added.

Republicans, however, downplayed Garza’s concerns, underscoring, for instance, that the Republican National Committee “is building on President Trump’s historic movement, opening offices and deploying staff across America to grow our majorities in Congress next year.”

“The president is delivering real results for all Americans, including Latino families: a surging economy, safer communities, and a secure border,” RNC Hispanic communications director Jaime Florez told the Washington Examiner. “No one has done more for Latino Americans than President Trump.”

Although the White House did not issue a statement on Monday, the first day of Hispanic Heritage Month, a White House official told the Washington Examiner that Trump will sign a proclamation as he did for Black History Month in February, Women’s History Month in March, and Asian American and Pacific Islander Heritage Month in May. 

A Republican strategist granted anonymity in order to speak candidly also defended Trump regarding his polling, asserting, “We are only seeing a slight drop off from his 2024 performance.” 

“We must remember Hispanics aren’t traditional Republican voters so they will soften after an election,” the strategist told the Washington Examiner. “So, the drop off we are looking at is not that extreme as they are painting it out to be.”

BONDI FACES FRESH CONSERVATIVE BACKLASH OVER ‘HATE SPEECH’ COMMENTS

A Fox News poll from this week found Trump’s Latino approval rating is 48% approve-52% disapprove, but Hispanic voters gave even lower favorable marks to leading Democrats Kamala Harris and Gavin Newsom.

“Democrats are more unpopular than Trump, and they don’t have a candidate or leader to stop their bleeding with Hispanics and stop their movement towards Republicans,” the GOP strategist said.