GOP aims to diminish Biden’s Florida prospects through voter registration efforts

Democrats are projecting confidence that Florida is in play for President Joe Biden this November, particularly now that the issue of abortion access will be on the state’s ballots.

But Florida voter registration data underscores the challenge for Biden if he wants to change the Sunshine State from red to blue this election cycle.

Florida Republicans now have 900,000 more registered voters than Democrats, with 5,250,234 Republicans compared to 4,349,737 Democrats, according to reports. That is an important, historic comparative advantage considering former President Donald Trump won the state’s 29 electoral votes in 2020 by 3 percentage points, or 371,686 people, and that, until three years ago, Democrats have had the edge since Reconstruction.

That data also represent a slight increase in Republican voter registration since publicly available data were last updated on March 31, the day before the Florida Supreme Court’s abortion decisions.

“The Republican gains are a big deal as Florida Democrats were able to win some statewide elections over the past 24 years when they had at least a small lead in voter registration,” University of Central Florida politics professor Aubrey Jewett told the Washington Examiner. “But even with the small lead, they were often losing close statewide elections.”

Good examples include Florida gubernatorial races since former Gov. Jeb Bush‘s (R-FL) in 1998. Democrats lost to ex-Gov. Rick Scott (R-FL) by about 1 point or less in 2010 and 2014 and then by less than half a point against incumbent Gov. Ron DeSantis (R-FL) in 2018. Republicans have also occupied the state’s Senate seats since Scott replaced onetime Florida Democratic Sen. Bill Nelson, NASA‘s administrator, in 2019.

“So the real question is, if Florida Democrats were barely staying competitive in some statewide races when they had a small lead in voter registration, how will Democrats be able to compete when Republicans have a sizable lead in voter registration?” Jewett said.

Presidential races in Florida have also historically been close, although Republicans have won the state in four of the six elections since 2000, and Trump, as a resident, is a favorite son candidate.

“The only two races the Dems won were in 2008 and 2012, when [former President Barack] Obama defeated John McCain in 2008 by less than 3% of the partisan vote and in 2012 when Obama defeated Mitt Romney by less than 1% of the partisan vote in Florida,” University of South Florida government professor emeritus Darryl Paulson told the Washington Examiner. “All six of the Florida presidential races were decided by margins of 3% or less, with the 2000 presidential race decided by a margin of 537 votes in favor of George W. Bush after the U.S. Supreme Court halted the recount in Florida in Bush v. Gore.”

The Biden campaign has cited Obama’s wins, with abortion last being on Florida’s ballots in 2012, Biden’s policy positions, from healthcare to entitlement program reform, and the president’s popularity with older voters, in addition to Trump’s underperformance in its Republican primary in March, as evidence of his path to victory in the state.

“155,000 Republican primary voters in Florida voted for Nikki Haley in a primary that came after she suspended her campaign,” Biden campaign manager Julie Chavez Rodriguez wrote in a memo this month of the former U.N. ambassador. “Similar to other states, including those with exit polls, we fully expect that many of those voters will not vote for Trump and are winnable for President Biden this November.”

But Paulson, of the University of South Florida, downplayed the likelihood of Biden winning Florida on the single issue of abortion, conceding “abortion combined with other factors may move Florida into the blue column.”

“The problem for Biden and Democrats is that most of the political factors in play in Florida currently favor Republicans and not Democrats,” he said.

Meanwhile, the Republican National Committee remains adamant that “Biden is losing in Florida and he knows it.” Trump does lead Biden in the state by an average of 10 points, per FiveThirtyEight.

“With Republican enthusiasm skyrocketing, voters are ready to turn out for President Donald J. Trump this November,” RNC spokeswoman Rachel Lee told the Washington Examiner. “Despite Biden’s best attempts to gaslight voters, they know exactly who is to blame for soaring costs, a spiraling border crisis, and staggering crime rates across the country.”

DeSantis, who met with Trump last weekend for the first time since he dropped out of the Republican primary in January, embodies Republicans’ dominance in Florida, though some Republicans contend the state was trending red regardless of the governor. DeSantis won reelection in 2022 by almost 20 points.

Florida is also poised to be the epicenter of Republican politics this weekend, with Trump holding a three-day donor retreat in Palm Beach, attended by House Speaker Mike Johnson (R-LA), and Tucker Carlson addressing the Florida Family Policy Council’s annual dinner in Orlando.

For the University of Central Florida’s Jewett, Florida Republicans’ advantage over Democrats “is not yet insurmountable,” but Florida Democrats are “clearly in trouble when it comes to registration and turnout numbers” after more new residents registered as Republicans, as well as South Florida Hispanics, predominantly Cuban Americans, becoming “more strongly Republican in the last few years as they started thinking Democrats were socialists.”

“Complete Republican control of the election machinery of Florida has resulted in the passage of laws having a negative impact on Democratic voter registration, especially with minority voters,” Paulson added. “Democrats may have a chance to win Florida’s electoral votes in 2024, but only if the political doors open far wider than they currently are.”

Notwithstanding the odds, the Biden campaign’s confidence comes from Florida’s Supreme Court deciding, first, that DeSantis’s six-week abortion ban could become law on Wednesday and then, secondly, ruling that a constitutional amendment permitting abortions until about 24 weeks of pregnancy could appear on the state’s ballots in November.

“Perhaps the most realistic hope for Florida Democrats may be that the abortion rights amendment may drive Democratic turnout so the results are not a blowout like they were in 2022 and that they actually are competitive and possibly win additional seats for Congress or at least in the state legislature,” Jewett said. “If they can do that, then perhaps they can begin to turn the tide on registration. If not, then, indeed, Florida will begin to look and act like a reliably red Republican state.”

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“It is significant that Biden and national Democrats say they will compete in Florida because if they don’t make visits and spend money on ads, then Democrats will lose big, a self-fulfilling political prophecy,” he continued.

Vice President Kamala Harris will be in Jacksonville on Wednesday after Biden traveled to Tampa last week to mark seven days before the abortion ban and following a digital ad buy for a 30-second abortion-focused spot called “Trust.” Florida Democrats have organized a press call on Tuesday to preview Harris’s trip ahead of their leadership conference this weekend in Orlando.

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