Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer (D-NY) spun Van Epps’ 9-point victory as “the latest flashing red light indicating that Americans are fed up with Republican policies.”

Senate Republicans remain more bullish than their House counterparts that outcomes in Tennessee and beyond in last month’s general elections are typical for off-year races, where turnouts and results can be wildcards that boost the minority party. However, as they downplay outcomes, they’re also tempering expectations for the 2026 cycle, which could see at least one chamber of Congress change control.

Senate Majority Leader John Thune (R-SD), who holds a three-seat majority, countered that Democrats and media ought not to “read too much” into Tennessee’s race, with the caveat that Republicans refine their messaging ahead of the 2026 midterm elections.

“I think, obviously, we need to take to heart the fact that we have to sharpen our message and make sure that we’re giving people a reason to vote for us in the midterms next year,” Thune said.

Sen. Ted Cruz (R-TX), speaking on Fox News Tuesday night, called the results a “dangerous” sign for the GOP and said that “hate” for Trump will be “a powerful motivator.”

Democrats made the Tennessee race competitive and forced Republicans to pump millions of dollars into what should’ve otherwise been a safe seat. At the Senate level, Republicans have less to worry about in the Volunteer State with Sen. Bill Hagerty’s reelection next year. Trump dominated Tennessee by nearly 30 points, nonpartisan forecasters still consider it a safe GOP seat, and Hagerty currently faces no Democratic challenger.

“I wouldn’t read too much into it,” Hagerty said of the special election to the Washington Examiner. “And those who do, I think it’s folly.”

In last month’s general elections, Democrats made gains up and down the ballot from gubernatorial contests in New Jersey and Virginia to state legislature seats in Mississippi and statewide Public Service Commission seats in Georgia.

The Senate map still favors Republicans in maintaining the majority. Democrats would need to keep all three of their competitive races in New Hampshire, Michigan, and Georgia while also flipping all three of the Republican-held seats in Maine, North Carolina, and Ohio, in addition to capturing a long-shot seat such as Texas or Iowa.

Sen. Steve Daines (R-MT), the former chairman of the Senate GOP’s campaign arm, said he was “pleasantly surprised” with Van Epps’ margin, given he wasn’t an incumbent, and described Republicans as facing natural hurdles.

“Obviously, the party of the president in power on the second midterm faces headwinds,” Daines said. “That’s nothing new. It’s part of the almost political gravity that exists.”

Still, Republicans are no strangers to sleeper Senate races catching them off guard, even if the end results reveal polls oversold Democrats’ chances.

REPUBLICAN MATT VAN EPPS WINS TENNESSEE SPECIAL ELECTION, DASHING DEMOCRATIC HOPES OF UPSET

Such was the case in 2024 with Nebraska, where Sen. Deb Fischer (R-NE) defeated independent Dan Osborn by roughly 6.5 points in a state Trump had carried by more than 20 points. Fischer underperformed Trump, but forecasters and polling suggested the race would be far tighter. Osborn is making another go at it in 2026, this time against Sen. Pete Ricketts (R-NE).

“I think they’re… grasping at straws so they can have a good spin on this and try and drive momentum,” Fischer told the Washington Examiner, noting that Sen. Peter Welch (D-VT) was set to visit her state later this week to speak about Trump administration policies. “I think they’re trying to do everything they can to get a lot of chatter going out there.”