Top 5 California House Races to Watch
Key Congressional Races to Watch in California in 2024
California’s 13th Congressional District
Rep. John Duarte (R-CA) is seeking a second term in the House of Representatives after his surprising victory in the 2022 election. His district, located in central California, includes Merced County and parts of Fresno, Madera, San Joaquin, and Stanislaus counties. Despite having a Democratic-leaning voting index, the district voted for Republicans in the 2022 gubernatorial and Senate elections. With a majority Hispanic or Latino population, this race is expected to be closely contested.
California’s 20th Congressional District
The battle for former House Speaker Kevin McCarthy’s seat will be an intriguing one. Republican state Assemblyman Vince Fong was initially deemed ineligible to appear on the congressional ballot due to election code restrictions, but a court ruling has allowed him to remain on the March primary ballot. Other Republicans vying for the seat include David Giglio, Kelly Kulikoff, Stan Ellis, Mike Boudreaux, and Matthew Stoll. Democrats Andy Morales and Marisa Wood are also seeking the seat.
California’s 22nd Congressional District
Rep. David Valadao (R-CA) faces a tough challenge in a district with a Democratic-leaning voting index. The district, which includes Kern, Kings, and Tulare counties, has been split between Republican and Democratic candidates in recent elections. Valadao has won two out of the past three races, with his victories being narrow. His challengers include Democrat Melissa Hurtado and Republican Chris Mathys.
California’s 27th Congressional District
Rep. Mike Garcia (R-CA) is up against a difficult reelection bid in a district that leans Democratic. The 27th District, located in Southern California, has no majority racial or ethnic group. Garcia won his seat in 2022 by defeating Democrat Christy Smith, but the margins in other races were tighter. Democrats Steve Hill and George Whitesides are challenging Garcia in this highly competitive district.
California’s 47th Congressional District
The 47th District, currently held by Rep. Katie Porter (D-CA), presents a potential pickup opportunity for Republicans. The district, encompassing parts of Orange County, has a Democratic-leaning voting index but is targeted by both parties. The mix of Republican-leaning coastal areas and Democratic-dominated Irvine makes this district highly competitive. Democrats Dave Min, Boyd Roberts, Joanna Weiss, and Shariq Zaidi, as well as Republicans Scott Baugh, Long Pham, and Max Ukropina, are vying for the seat.
These five congressional races in California will play a crucial role in determining the balance of power in the House of Representatives after the 2024 election. With razor-thin margins expected in several districts and the opportunity for new faces to emerge, the political landscape in the Golden State is set for an exciting and closely watched showdown.
How will the shifting demographics impact the competitiveness of the race in California’s 45th Congressional District?
California’s 39th Congressional District
The race in California’s 39th Congressional District is expected to be one of the most closely watched battles in 2024. Republican Young Kim will be seeking re-election after winning the seat in 2022. The district, which includes portions of Los Angeles, Orange, and San Bernardino counties, has traditionally been a Republican stronghold. However, the demographics of the district have been changing, and it is now considered a swing district. Democratic contenders will be highly motivated to try and flip the seat.
California’s 45th Congressional District
The race in California’s 45th Congressional District is another important one to watch in 2024. Incumbent Democrat Katie Porter is seeking re-election after winning the seat in 2022. The district, located in Orange County, has been trending towards the Democrats in recent elections. However, it still has a significant Republican presence, and the race is expected to be highly competitive. Republicans will be working hard to try and regain the seat in 2024.
California’s 48th Congressional District
The battle for California’s 48th Congressional District will be another closely contested race in 2024. Incumbent Republican Michelle Steel will be seeking re-election after winning the seat in 2022. The district, which includes portions of Orange County, has historically been a Republican stronghold. However, changing demographics and shifting political tides have made it increasingly competitive. Democrats will be putting forth strong candidates to try and take the seat from the Republicans.
Conclusion
As the 2024 elections approach, several key congressional races in California are expected to be closely watched. These races will play a significant role in determining the balance of power in Congress and the direction of policy in the state. Whether it’s the closely contested race in the 13th Congressional District, the battle for former Speaker Kevin McCarthy’s seat in the 20th Congressional District, or the competitive races in the 39th, 45th, and 48th Congressional Districts, California voters will have important decisions to make. The outcomes of these races will shape the future of representation and governance in the state for years to come.
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