Final New Jersey poll gives Democrat Sherrill double-digit lead over Ciattarelli
A final poll in New Jersey shows Democrat Mikie Sherrill holding a significant lead over Republican Jack Ciattarelli in the gubernatorial election. The John Zogby Strategies survey indicates sherrill at 55% support compared to Ciattarelli’s 43.4%, with Sherrill winning a majority of autonomous voters as well as strong backing from Democrats. Ciattarelli maintains strong support among republicans but lags with women voters, where Sherrill leads by 27 points, and among younger, first-time voters. The election is viewed as a referendum on President Donald Trump’s first year, with related races in Virginia also favoring Democratic candidates. Sherrill’s broad coalition of liberals, women, younger voters, and independents gives her a notable advantage heading into Election Day.
Final New Jersey poll gives Democrat Sherrill double-digit lead over Ciattarelli
The last poll of New Jersey voters suggests that Democrat Mikie Sherrill will win a commanding victory over Republican Jack Ciattarelli in today’s gubernatorial election.
The John Zogby Strategies survey, completed yesterday afternoon, has Sherrill with 55% to 43.4% for Ciattarelli. Another 1.6% chose minor party candidates.
Pollster John Zogby, who partners with Washington Secrets for the weekly White House Report Card, told us that in addition to partisan voters, Sherrill is winning a majority of independent voters.
“Sherrill holds 95% of Democratic voters, while Ciattarelli’s support is strong with 91% of Republicans. Independent voters break for Sherrill on the afternoon before the election – 54% to Ciattarelli’s 42%,” said the polling analysis.
The election is one of a few on Tuesday that are considered a judgment on President Donald Trump’s first year in office. Virginia is also hosting a gubernatorial election, and the Democratic candidate, Abigail Spanberger, is leading Republican Lt. Gov. Winsome Earle-Sears in most polling.
Trump has been a topic hanging over both elections, and they come as other polling is indicating a drop in support for the president, who recently has shifted his focus from domestic issues to foreign policy.
Key points from Zogby’s survey:
— The gender gap: Sherrill has a 27-point lead among women voters, 63% to 36%. Ciattarelli leads among men, 52% to 47%.
— Married vs. non-married voters: Ciattarelli leads married New Jersey voters 51% to 48%, which is an underperformance for a Republican candidate, while Sherrill commands those not married (single, divorced, widowed, other) 58% to 37%.
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— First-time voters in a New Jersey gubernatorial election prefer Sherrill, giving her a lead of 64% to 34%.
— Ciattarelli leads among white voters 51% – 48%.
“In the final analysis, while Ciattarelli mobilizes conservatives, men, white voters, and rural voters, Mikie Sherrill appears to have excited liberals, women, all age groups (especially those under 45), first-time voters, and independent voters — leaving her with a significant lead as we go into Election Day,” said the analysis.
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