The fight to flip the red seat held by Sen. John Cornyn (R-TX) is an uphill battle with many factors, including Talarico surviving a messy primary against Rep. Jasmine Crockett (D-TX), whom many Democrats worry would be unelectable in a red state. 

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If Talarico were to succeed in the primary, his success would likely depend on who the Republican nominee is. Although the primary is less than two weeks away, on March 3, the three-way GOP race will almost certainly head to a runoff between the top two candidates on May 26. This would leave nearly three months for the Democratic candidate to campaign for the general election while the Republicans are still duking it out.

Cornyn will face Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton and Rep. Wesley Hunt (R-TX) at the GOP primary ballot box in what has been a messy and expensive few months. Paxton has consistently polled ahead of the two other candidates, even as the race remains tight. The University of Houston’s Hobby School of Public Affairs released a poll earlier this month that measured Paxton’s support at 38% of likely GOP primary voters, compared to 31% for Cornyn and 17% for Hunt.

The real deal or Beto 2.0?

Democrats see an opening for Talarico after former Democratic Texas Senate nominee Beto O’Rourke came within 2.6 percentage points of incumbent Sen. Ted Cruz (R-TX) in 2018, a blue wave election year after President Donald Trump first took office two years prior.

“There is some commonality between 2026 and 2018, which is that the top of the ticket, that is the the party in power is extremely unpopular, and the person at the head of it, being the chief executive, is extremely unpopular, so that there is commonality there between between the two years,” Democratic strategist Jon Reneish told the Washington Examiner.

“I think that Talarico, in contrast to O’Rouke, has way deeper, more grassroots reach,” Reneish added.  “I also think that he has the potential to be far more than an anti-Trump or anti-Republican candidate, and has more of a chance to talk about what he’s for, rather than just what he’s against.”

While some Democrats continue to hold out hope that Talarico can close the 2.6-point gap from 2018, not all have the same confidence.

“I think the momentum around Beto was stronger, especially considering it was a run against Cruz,” a former O’Rourke campaign field organizer told the Washington Examiner. “If it’s a run against Paxton, I do think he has a chance, but I don’t think he does against Cornyn.”

Although Cornyn faces an uphill primary battle, incumbents historically have a leg up in any race, leaving many Democrats less hopeful if Texas’s senior senator can clear Hunt and Paxton. 

“I’ve talked to several Republicans since last night and they made two things very clear to me: They are very worried about the messy primary between [Paxton] and Cornyn,” Democratic influencer and Texas resident Olivia Julianna wrote on X. “And they are very worried about a James Talarico vs Ken Paxton race. Specifically what that means down ballot.”

One Texas Republican voter told the Washington Examiner when asked about a Talarico vs. Paxton face-off: “I think it may be the closest race they have had in a while and could go either way.”

Other Republicans remain confident that the red state will once again disappoint Democrats.  

“James Talarico is just another Beto, he’s got buzz amongst the progressive left but won’t translate it into the votes required to win,” Matt Esguerra, campaign Advisor and chief of staff to Rep. Lance Gooden (R-TX), told the Washington Examiner. “It’s like Nikki Haley pushing the “electability” issue against President Trump in the 2024 GOP primary — President Trump won historically anyways. Ken Paxton has three statewide wins, came back stronger after impeachment, and has the fired-up base that actually shows up to vote.”

Despite the Left being wary of flipping the seat, there is a particular aspect of Talarico’s campaign style that has instilled confidence in southern Democrats. His Christian messaging is what many Texas Democrats think could win a statewide election for the first time in three decades. 

Talarico’s Christian-infused campaign long predates his Senate bid and is part of what makes him an attractive candidate to Democrats, and has worried some Republicans. He’s gone viral for opposing Republican state lawmakers moving to add the Ten Commandments to public classrooms, and at another point for criticizing those lawmakers for not adopting stricter gun laws in the face of mass shootings.

Talarico is not the first Democrat to campaign on his liberal Christian values. Sen. Raphael Warnock (D-GA), a reverend, demonstrated his success when he narrowly beat Republican nominee Herschel Walker, a scandal-ridden former football player.

After Democrats’ massive loss in 2024, the party has been on the hunt for mechanisms and winning messaging to regain some footing with voters they lost or who have become apathetic in recent years. A win for Talarico could solidify that campaigning on faith in southern states can pull out a win, especially following Warnock’s success in 2022.

Joe Rogan effect and FCC fallout

Talarico launched his campaign last September just weeks after his viral appearance on Joe Rogan’s podcast, “The Joe Rogan Experience.” The interview catapulted his political career by reaching across political media markets.  

“James Talarico, you need to run for president,” Rogan, who has a massive conservative following, told Talarico at the end of an over two-and-a-half-hour interview. 

Talarico has continued to gain traction since then, through leading the redistricting fight in Texas, numerous viral social media moments, and, most recently, when late-night host Stephen Colbert said on his show that CBS refused to air his interview with Talarico. 

The refusal was a response to the Federal Communications Commission’s recent notice to include late-night shows in the Equal Time Rule, which they were historically exempt from. Colbert then posted the interview online, where FCC broadcast provisions do not apply.

The online interview took off.

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“First of all, Trump and his administration, including the FCC chair, could not have handed a bigger public relations or brand awareness gift to both Stephen Colbert and, most importantly, to James Talarico,” Reneish said.

A source familiar with the FCC’s rules and regulations explained to the Washington Examiner that Colbert could’ve broadcast the interview, but that CBS then could have reported it as subject to the Equal Time Rule, in which Crockett or another Democrat in the race would have seven days to claim their “time.”

“FCC Chairman [Brendan] Carr’s effort to narrow long-standing equal time exceptions risks chilling lawful political speech on broadcast by pressuring networks to avoid candidate interviews altogether,” a Senate Democratic Committee staffer told the Washington Examiner. “That’s definitely a free speech concern. But I don’t think this was a conscious effort by Carr or the Trump Administration to censor Rep. Talarico specifically.”

While Democrats remain hopeful, Talarico will know his fate for the general election in less than two weeks, as Texans have already begun early voting.

Crockett has quickly risen to fame, serving her second term in the lower chamber as the GOP has strived to make her a face of the Democratic Party. The social media star has focused much of her campaign against Trump, with her launch video being a series of insults the president has said about her.

A December poll showed Crockett’s name recognition led that of Talarico’s by eight points in the primary, according to a Texas Southern University survey conducted last month. Another October poll by the University of Houston and Texas Southern University showed Crockett with an 18-percentage-point lead over Talarico.

Talarico has crept up in the polls early this year, according to an Emerson College poll that showed him leading Crockett by nine points among likely Democratic voters. A separate February poll revealed Crockett back in the lead.

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Democrats are facing a difficult Senate map in the 2026 midterm elections, but Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer (D-NY) has put a lot of work into finding electable candidates. The Democratic slate includes former North Carolina Gov. Roy Cooper, former Ohio Sen. Sherrod Brown, and former Alaska Rep. Mary Peltola, who will run in tough races in their respective states. If this year proves to be a good one for Democrats, Texas could be one of a few states to help flip the upper chamber. 

The Washington Examiner reached out to Talarico’s campaign for comment.