DeSantis and Haley battle for a chance against Trump.
The Battle for Leadership: DeSantis vs. Haley
The House speakership isn’t the only leadership clash happening in the Republican Party. Lost in the shadow of the race for the gavel and former President Donald Trump’s popularity is a fierce rivalry between Gov. Ron DeSantis (R-FL) and former U.S. Ambassador Nikki Haley.
DeSantis and Haley, both eyeing the 2024 Republican presidential nomination, are engaged in a heated debate over defending Israel and keeping Hamas sympathizers out of the United States.
Haley’s team accuses DeSantis of spreading lies about her record, using phrases like “DeSperate DeSantis” and “pants on fire.” On the other hand, DeSantis claims to be the man of action, from rescuing trapped Americans in Israel to thoroughly vetting potential refugees.
The competition between them has become uncomfortably close. While DeSantis was initially the only non-Trump contender, Haley has gained significant momentum after the first two GOP debates. She now ranks second in New Hampshire and her home state of South Carolina, where she previously served as governor. In Iowa, she holds the third position.
However, DeSantis still has an advantage if Trump were to stumble in Iowa. He currently ranks second in the polls. A recent Des Moines Register poll, which assessed factors like willingness to consider voting for a candidate and overall favorability, revealed that DeSantis is even closer to Trump than expected.
Well-organized campaigns that invest time in Iowa often reap rewards from the caucuses system, allowing them to gain ground in the polls later in the game. There are doubts about Trump’s caucuses operation and whether his missteps, such as controversial comments about abortion and Israel, feuds with Iowa’s popular Republican governor, and snubbing local evangelical influencers, could cost him.
An upset in Iowa could completely change the dynamics of the race. It might shatter Trump’s aura of inevitability and shift the focus away from a familiar face dealing with legal issues. Similar precedents include black voters switching from Hillary Clinton to Barack Obama after his Iowa victory in 2008 and Joe Biden’s South Carolina win revitalizing his seemingly stagnant campaign in the 2020 Democratic primaries.
Alternatively, winning Iowa could be a mere blip on the radar, as it was for Mike Huckabee, Rick Santorum, and Ted Cruz. Since Pat Buchanan in 1996, no one has been able to translate success with Iowa evangelicals into a victory in the New Hampshire primary. Strong social conservatism is not as valuable in today’s Granite State, especially if many independents participate in the open primary, as they do in Iowa.
The third scenario is a Trump victory in Iowa, where he currently leads by 33 points in the RealClearPolitics average and has polled above 50% in the last two statewide surveys. This outcome could be facilitated by the DeSantis-Haley rivalry.
Haley’s path, in contrast, would go through New Hampshire and South Carolina, although a strong showing in Iowa would certainly boost her chances. Trump won both of these states in 2016. However, this year, the Republican primary is the only game in town for independents, and Haley appears more likely to make it to her home state primary compared to fellow South Carolinian Lindsey Graham.
Like DeSantis, Haley’s nomination prospects rely on numerous hypotheticals. Currently, she seems to be competing with the Florida governor for the best position to step in if Trump falters or his legal troubles remove him from the race.
Overall, the national polls present a daunting challenge for both candidates. An Emerson College poll showed Trump at 59%, roughly in line with the RealClearPolitics average, while DeSantis and Haley were tied at 8% each.
Although there is no national primary, it is likely that once the candidates move beyond the early states with their cost-effective media markets and the ability to focus on one location at a time, the race will start to take this shape.
In the meantime, Haley and DeSantis find themselves in each other’s way, both aiming to take down Trump. They will have to target each other before they can focus their fire on the former president.
How has Governor DeSantis’s handling of the COVID-19 pandemic in Florida impacted his chances of becoming the frontrunner?
Springboard for DeSantis or Haley to establish themselves as the clear frontrunner. A solid victory in the caucuses would provide them with momentum and media attention, boosting their chances of winning subsequent primaries and securing the party nomination.
However, the battle for leadership is not just about Iowa. Both DeSantis and Haley have been actively campaigning and building support across the country. They have been visiting influential states like Florida, Texas, and Pennsylvania, where their policies on immigration, taxes, and conservative values resonate with voters.
DeSantis has been touting his record as governor of Florida, highlighting his successful management of the COVID-19 pandemic, his efforts to secure the southern border, and his pro-business policies that have led to economic growth in the state. He presents himself as a strong leader who can effectively govern and protect American values.
On the other hand, Haley emphasizes her experience as a former U.S. Ambassador to the United Nations, positioning herself as a skilled diplomat who can navigate complex international issues. She also highlights her achievements as governor of South Carolina, including her response to natural disasters and her promotion of economic development in the state.
Both candidates have their strengths and weaknesses. DeSantis has the advantage of being the incumbent governor of a key swing state, while Haley has the advantage of having served in a high-profile diplomatic role. They both have loyal supporters who believe they are the best choice to lead the party and the country.
As the battle for leadership intensifies, it is likely that the candidates will continue to differentiate themselves on key policy issues and showcase their leadership qualities. The debates, campaign rallies, and media appearances will be crucial in winning over undecided voters and solidifying support among their respective bases.
Ultimately, the outcome of this leadership clash will have significant implications for the future of the Republican Party. The nominee will have to unite the party, appeal to a broad base of voters, and challenge the policies of the incumbent Democratic administration. The battle for leadership between DeSantis and Haley will shape the direction of the party and determine its chances of success in the 2024 presidential election. Only time will tell who will emerge as the ultimate leader of the Republican Party.
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