She will run against Lt. Gov. Winsome Earle-Sears (R-VA), who survived two primary challengers and clinched the GOP nomination before the Tuesday primary.

Polling from the Institute for Policy and Opinion Research at Roanoke College last month shows Spanberger with a 17-point lead over Earle-Sears, 43%-26%. The Democratic nominee also raised $6.5 million between April 1 and June 5, more than $3 million more than her Republican competitor.

Spanberger has more than $14 million in cash on hand, far above the roughly $3 million Earle-Sears has on hand.

“Polls do show that Abigail Spanberger right now looks pretty good in the general election,” said Stephen Farnsworth, a political science professor at the University of Mary Washington. “The reality of 2025 may very well be that if Spanberger wins, it will be one of the brightest spots for Democrats this year. It’s clear that the Virginia Democratic Party is more energized than the national Democratic Party, which continues to seem to struggle with questions of identity.”

Democrats have struggled to find a consistent message against President Donald Trump and the GOP-controlled Congress. Some leaders, such as Gov. Gavin Newsom (D-CA), have relished public battles with Trump.

Newsom and Trump traded barbs in the aftermath of some violent protests against immigration officials in Los Angeles. The California governor sued the Trump administration over deploying the National Guard to LA without Newsom’s consent.

A federal appeals court in San Francisco will hold a hearing over the case on Tuesday after a separate judge ruled the National Guard deployment was illegal.

A trio of Democratic leaders, Govs. Kathy Hochul (D-NY), JB Pritzker (D-IL), and Tim Walz (D-MN) sparred with House Republicans over immigration during a congressional hearing last week.

Spanberger has opted to focus more on fixing the affordability crisis in Virginia and less on public feuds with the Trump administration, in her hopes to become the commonwealth’s first female governor. If Earle-Sears is elected, she also would be the first female governor in the commonwealth and the first black female governor in the country.

“Virginians know that Abigail has a record of bringing people together and getting things done,” Spanberger spokeswoman Libby Wiet said in a statement to the Washington Examiner. “They know that she will be a Governor who is relentlessly focused on making Virginia more affordable for their families, strengthening schools for their kids, and growing the Commonwealth’s economy for everyone.”

Heading into both the primary on Tuesday and the general election in November, Democrats have historical precedent on their side. The Virginia gubernatorial race, long seen as a political bellwether for the next midterm elections, tends to vote for the political party opposite the president’s party.

“We have both New Jersey and Virginia as leans democratic,” said J. Miles Coleman, associate editor of Sabato’s Crystal Ball at the University of Virginia Center for Politics, about the two gubernatorial races this year. “That said to kind of maybe split hairs a little, I wouldn’t be surprised if Virginia ends up a bigger win for the Democrats.”

Youngkin capitalized on his conventional standard in 2021 when he defeated former Democratic Gov. Terry McAuliffe by riding a wave of backlash against Democratic handling of school lockdowns during the COVID-19 pandemic.

“This time, it just doesn’t feel like it has that same magic,” Coleman said about Earle-Sears’s gubernatorial campaign.

Officials with the Democratic Governors Association touted their confidence in Spanberger by announcing a $5 million investment in the Virginia race. DGA leaders claimed that Spanberger has the momentum against Earle-Sears during a recent call with reporters, but they are prepared for a competitive race.

Farnsworth claimed that the Department of Government Efficiency’s cuts to federal workers, who make up a significant portion of Virginia’s workforce, will likely help Democrats come November.

“Virginia looks a lot like 2017 right now,” he said, referring to just before the 2018 midterms that allowed Democrats to retake the House. “And that’s before we even get to the real challenge that Winsome Earle-Sears is going to face, and that is, a lot of the policies that the Trump administration is pursuing have a disproportionately negative impact on Virginia.”

The layoffs do not just affect federal workers, Coleman added. “There are whole industries who do work with the federal government, who are facing more uncertainty or possible layoffs, and it’s kind of some backlash that we think could probably work in Spanberger’s favor, especially because she comes from that world. She has a background in the intelligence community.”

Wiet said that “Virginians who have lost their jobs, are afraid their jobs will be targeted next, or are worried about Virginia’s economic future deserve a Governor who will stand up to the Trump Administration’s attacks, not someone whose advice is ‘do not fret’ — and Virginia voters trust Abigail to always put Virginia first. That’s why she will be elected to serve as the next Governor of Virginia.”

But the GOP ticket is aiming to paint Spanberger as a national Democrat who is unable to relate to the average Virginian’s daily life.

“While Democrats pin their hopes on a candidate who has only ever been a part of the problem in Washington, Winsome Earle-Sears is out talking to Virginians about real solutions to real problems,” Earle-Sears spokeswoman Peyton Vogel said in a statement to the Washington Examiner.

“Winsome has a record of delivering results, and as Governor, she’ll continue to build upon the successes of the Youngkin-Sears Administration that has created jobs and put more money back in Virginians’ pockets,” Vofel continued. “She is a Marine, a mom, and a proven leader who knows how to fight and win, and that’s exactly what she’ll do in November.”

David Richards, a political science professor at the University of Lynchburg, agreed that Spanberger’s polling and fundraising figures are in a good spot. But he also offered some caution for her campaign.

“I saw some stuff over the weekend that I thought was a little worrisome for the Democrats’ effort: The African American vote in the primaries is down,” Richards said. “That doesn’t mean they’re not going to vote in the general election, but if the African American vote isn’t motivated, then you know that’s going to hurt the Democrats in Virginia.”

Richards also offered some caution on what the Democratic ticket lineup could look like after the primary.

“If it’s not going to be a very diverse ticket, then the Republicans have that advantage if they choose to use it,” he said. “Now, they have their own problems, of course.”

Two Democrats are running in the attorney general primary: former state Del. Jay Jones and Henrico County Commonwealth’s Attorney Shannon Taylor.

Six candidates are running for lieutenant governor on the Democratic side: Alex Bastani; state Sen. Ghazala Hashmi; Dr. Babur Lateef, chairman of the Prince William County School Board; state Sen. Aaron Rouse; Victor Salgado; and former Richmond Mayor Levar Stoney.

On the Republican side, Attorney General Jason Miyares is seeking reelection, while John Reid is the only GOP candidate for lieutenant governor. Youngkin previously asked Reid, who is gay, to step away from the ticket after nude photos of men were posted to a social media account affiliated with the candidate.

Earle-Sears did not directly claim that the full GOP ticket would campaign together for a unity event when asked by a reporter. “Actually, as you know, we are all running our campaigns,” Earle-Sears said.

WHO IS ABIGAIL SPANBERGER? MEET THE DEMOCRATIC CANDIDATE FOR VIRGINIA GOVERNOR

The Virginia race likely will not turbocharge until after Labor Day, which Richards said gives the GOP ticket “plenty of time” to decide when to campaign together.

“If you check back in in October and they still haven’t been onstage together, I’m going to be very concerned,” he said. “But right now, give them some time, they’ll figure it out. They have to figure it out.”