Democrats have yet to impress, but maybe they don’t need to
The article discusses the current state of the Democratic Party and its potential candidates in light of the 2024 presidential election. It highlights that many of the Democrats who aspire to replace President donald Trump are struggling to connect with voters. Governor Tim Walz of Minnesota exemplifies this disconnect, as his comments intended to appeal to white male voters have not gained traction, evidenced by Trump winning a significant majority of their support in the last election.
The article also notes that prominent Democrats, like Walz and Gretchen Whitmer, have faced challenges in their public interactions and have opted out of key opportunities that could position them for the presidential race. For instance, Wes Moore of Maryland has decided not to run for president in 2028, raising concerns about the party’s leadership talent.
Despite these challenges, the author argues that several factors could shift the political landscape by the time of the next election, especially if economic conditions change or if Trump’s popularity declines.Historical references are made to the 1992 election, highlighting how unforeseen circumstances can open up opportunities for different candidates.
The conclusion emphasizes that for Democrats to succeed, they may need to foster a stronger political connection and “permission structure” with voters, a challenge that figures like Walz have yet to meet effectively.
Democrats have yet to impress, but maybe they don’t need to
Whatever ails President Donald Trump, each day brings new reminders that many of the Democrats who would like to replace him aren’t quite ready for prime time.
Every time Gov. Tim Walz (D-MN), who was on the party’s national ticket as the vice presidential nominee just last year, strikes out on his own, he illustrates why they lost to Trump.
“I could code talk to white guys — watching football, fixing their truck. … I was the permission structure to say, ‘Look, you can do this and vote for this,’” Walz said during a Harvard Kennedy School forum earlier this week.
If this doesn’t sound like effective messaging, the results of the 2024 campaign may not surprise you. Trump won 60% of white men, suggesting they did not respond well to Walz’s permission structure. Trump also carried 54% of Hispanic men and 21% of black men, according to exit polls.
Walz previously brought his brand of harmless masculinity to Gov. Gavin Newsom’s (D-CA) podcast, where he suggested that Trump-supporting men felt threatened by him and perhaps rightly so. “I do think I could kick most of their ass,” Walz said. (The singular is in the original.)
Perhaps a generic Democrat could do better next time. “I think we need to collectively run a presidential campaign without a candidate right now that builds all the infrastructure. … By the time we get to 2028, we’re ready,” Walz said.
Gov. Gretchen Whitmer (D-MI) has now twice been successfully trolled by Trump. Her impromptu remarks as Trump marked his 100 days back in office went better than her hiding her face behind papers in the White House, but her tarmac embrace of the president could come back to haunt her. Chris Christie was never forgiven by his party’s base for hugging Barack Obama when they were governor of New Jersey and president of the United States, respectively.
At the same time, Gov. Wes Moore (D-MD), one of the Democrats’ rising stars, announced on Thursday that he would be taking a pass on the 2028 presidential race.
In retrospect, one of the signs that the Democrats were going to lose the 2024 election even after replacing former President Joe Biden at the top of the ticket was their most ambitious elected officials deciding to forgo the opportunity. No one seriously floated a challenge to former Vice President Kamala Harris at the Democratic National Convention after Biden dropped out. Whitmer and Gov. Josh Shapiro (D-PA), both Rust Belt governors, were similarly disinterested in being Harris’s running mate.
Two major things could happen that might make 2028 different. The first is that if the economy and Trump’s poll numbers continue on their present trajectory, Democratic candidates will not need exceptional political skills to win. The second is that if the economy and Trump’s poll numbers are bad, more talented Democrats will see an opportunity and run.
Established politicians often fight the last war, and presidential campaigns often start a year or two before the actual election year. In 1992, most of the presumed top-tier candidates for the Democratic nomination chose not to run. Mario Cuomo, Richard Gephardt, Lloyd Bentsen, and others made their decisions in the aftermath of the Gulf War, when President George H.W. Bush had record job approval ratings and looked unbeatable.
But the early ‘90s recession, coupled with the lips-defying Bush tax increase, made the incumbent quite vulnerable. Bill Clinton, the Arkansas governor who had bombed in his 1988 Democratic convention speech, ascended to the top against second-tier competition like Paul Tsongas and Jerry Brown. Clinton also proved to be a generational political talent.
A lot could change between now and the midterm elections, much less the next presidential race. Trump’s numbers and the economy could improve. The political climate could be radically different. Republicans will be looking at a different nominee in 2028, though that candidate will need to run under the conditions left by Trump, just as John McCain campaigned in the shadow of second-term George W. Bush.
AFTER 100 DAYS, CAN TRUMP PULL OFF SECOND GREAT POLITICAL COMEBACK?
If the Democrats have a Clinton-like talent waiting in the wings, they have yet to show sufficient interest in the White House. But it wouldn’t take a huge shift from 2024 nationally or in the battleground states to produce a different electoral outcome.
Democrats need their opponents to create the permission structure Tim Walz couldn’t.
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