Yet Democrats are confronting their own credibility problem.

A recent Quinnipiac University poll found just 18% of voters approve of the way congressional Democrats are handling their jobs, while 73% disapprove, the worst rating for the party in the history of the poll. Even within their own ranks, Democrats are divided. Only 42% of Democratic voters approve of congressional Democrats, while nearly half disapprove. Congressional Republicans, by contrast, enjoy 77% approval from Republican voters.

The numbers underscore a central tension for Democrats: Voters may be souring on Trump, but they are not automatically turning to the opposition party.

That dynamic is not unusual in midterm politics, said Democratic strategist Brad Bannon, who argues that congressional elections function more as referendums on the president than as head-to-head contests between party brands. Many voters know little about their representatives, he said, and fill the information gap by voting based on how they feel about the incumbent president.

“In midterm elections, the campaign is very much about the incumbent,” Bannon said. “In that information vacuum, voters rely on what they do know, which is how they feel about the president.”

“Democrats can’t sidestep Trump since voters tie him to the economy, but the core message has to stay focused on affordability,” a Democratic operative advising midterm campaigns said. “The party has learned the hard way that Trump’s unpopularity by itself isn’t enough to mobilize voters, particularly when he’s not on the ballot.”

Strategists familiar with House Democrats’ campaign approach say Trump will remain part of the political backdrop, but not the centerpiece of their message. Their focus, they say, is squarely on economic concerns and cost-of-living relief.

Polling suggests Democrats remain at a disadvantage on the issues voters say matter most. A Wall Street Journal survey found voters trust congressional Republicans more than Democrats to handle the economy by a margin of 38%-32%. The same gap appears for inflation. On immigration, Republicans lead 44%-33%, and on foreign policy, they hold a 38%-33% edge.

That trust deficit has fueled internal debate about the party’s direction and messaging.

Bannon argues Democrats can still benefit politically from Trump’s weakness, but only if they pair attacks with a credible alternative.

“Success in a midterm election is about 65% beating up on Trump and 35% talking about the Democratic alternative,” he said. “You’ve got to [balance] it with what we would do differently.”

Some Democratic campaign operatives worry that even a disciplined affordability message can be undercut by internal party dynamics.

“The party is doing the right thing by centering affordability, but we’re still vulnerable when the far Left sets the tone,” the Democratic campaign strategist involved in House races said. “Primary outcomes don’t stay local, and Democrats everywhere end up fielding questions about ideas that aren’t where most voters are. That’s a hard position to win from.”

Some Democrats argue the solution is not moderation but sharper economic populism. In a recent social media video, Sen. Elizabeth Warren (D-MA) said the party must offer a proactive agenda instead of defining itself primarily in opposition to Trump.

“Democrats need to be more than the anti-Trump party,” Warren said in a social media video. “We’ve got to earn trust, real trust with people, and we can only do that by fighting for an economy that works for working people.”

Sen. Chris Van Hollen (D-MD) echoed that sentiment in an NPR interview in December 2025, warning that voters see Democrats as too closely tied to the status quo.

“We’ve become too much the party of the status quo when people want to see us move in a different direction,” Van Hollen said. “We need to be clear about what we’re fighting for, not just what we’re fighting against.”

Republicans, meanwhile, are cautioning against complacency on their side as well.

“Republicans can’t assume dissatisfaction with Democrats automatically translates into GOP victories. Turnout and candidate quality still matter enormously,” said GOP strategist Dennis Lennox, who argued that disciplined campaigns focused on cost-of-living concerns could help Republicans blunt historical midterm losses. “Trump’s approval or disapproval by itself won’t determine the outcome. Voters don’t like Democrats. Republicans win if they run credible candidates with serious campaigns that emphasize turnout.”

Democratic campaign committees are betting that affordability will become the central battlefield. A Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee memo released after the party’s 2025 wins framed the coming cycle as a referendum on rising costs, arguing voters are “fed up with the Republican agenda that is driving up costs” and are ready to elect a Democratic House majority focused on protecting working families. The memo compared the moment to 2018, when backlash to Trump helped Democrats retake the House during his first term.

The path to power is narrow but plausible. Democrats need a net gain of three seats to flip control of the House. Winning the Senate would be more difficult, requiring a four-seat pickup in a map that favors Republicans.

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For Bannon, the path forward is clear: Keep the focus on costs.

“Donald Trump promised to bring prices down on Day One,” he said. “Voters remember that. Democrats have to remind them.”