Ciattarelli struggles to break Sherrill’s lead in New Jersey governor’s race: poll
The article reports on the latest New Jersey governor’s race poll, showing Democratic Representative Mikie Sherrill leading former Republican state lawmaker Jack Ciattarelli by 9 points (44% to 35%) among likely voters, according to an August Rutgers University Eagleton Center poll. Although Sherrill’s lead has narrowed from a 20-point margin in July, the race remains competitive with 17% of likely voters still undecided. The poll highlights the importance of self-reliant voters, as Ciattarelli needs a strong share of this group to win, while Sherrill aims to maintain her edge. Demographically, Sherrill holds meaningful leads among black, Hispanic, and Asian voters, while white voters are more evenly split. Despite the current standings, Republicans remain confident heading into the election, partly due to Ciattarelli’s previous close contest in 2021 and recent shifts in voter dynamics within the state. The poll surveyed 1,650 likely voters between July 31 and August 11.
Ciattarelli struggles to break Sherrill’s lead in New Jersey governor’s race: poll
Rep. Mikie Sherrill (D-NJ) is maintaining her lead over former Republican state lawmaker Jack Ciattarelli in the New Jersey gubernatorial race, according to a new poll.
An August poll from Rutgers University’s Eagleton Center for Public Interest Polling found Sherrill with a 9-point lead over Ciattarelli, 44% to 35% among likely voters.
A previous July poll from Rutgers-Eagleton found Sherrill with a 20-point lead over Ciattarelli. The July poll, however, was a survey of New Jersey registered voters, while the August poll looked to more so represent people likely to vote.
“As summer winds down and the campaigns enter the final months, the race for governor has tightened,” Ashley Koning, an assistant research professor and director of the Eagleton Center for Public Interest Polling at Rutgers University-New Brunswick, said in a statement. “Sherrill still has the edge, but the important thing to take away here is that the race is competitive and will continue to be in flux, in large part because there are still a notable number of undecideds.”
“We are also at a turning point in New Jersey politics. Likely voters are always an unknown population, but especially given today’s political climate, shifting turnout dynamics in the state, and the race’s history-making potential, we simply do not know who will definitively turn out come Election Day. The only thing for certain is that all eyes are on New Jersey this cycle,” the statement continued.
Seventeen percent of likely voters remain undecided. When they were pushed for an answer, Sherrill’s lead increased 47%-37%.
“Independents are always a key voting bloc here in New Jersey,” said Koning. “Despite recent Republican registration gains, Ciattarelli still needs a substantial share of independents to win in November. Likewise, Sherrill must hold her edge with independents across key areas to cushion against any softness in base turnout.”
When broken down by demographic, white voters appear divided between the candidates, with 38% indicating support for Sherrill and 44% for Ciattarelli, but Sherrill leads by double digits among black voters 69% to Ciattarelli’s 4%, Hispanic voters 56% to Ciattarelli’s 22%, and Asian voters 47% to Ciattarelli’s 18%.
This poll is generally in line with other polling. Sherill was leading Ciattarelli by 8 points in a July poll from Fairleigh Dickinson University.
NEW JERSEY REPUBLICANS CONFIDENT ABOUT GUBERNATORIAL WIN AS ODDS SHIFT
Republicans still have maintained their confidence going toward Election Day. Ciattarelli, who is in his third run for governor, came within 3 points of beating incumbent Gov. Phil Murphy (D-NJ) in 2021, and the state moved further into Republicans’ reach in the 2024 presidential election.
The poll was conducted from July 31 to Aug. 11 and included 1,650 likely general election voters.
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