CEO confidence on uptick after two-year downturn

CEOs across industries are starting to feel more confident in their business conditions than they have in the past two years, according to a new report.

Over 130 CEOs responded to the survey from the Conference Board last month, and it revealed that nearly a third of them thought economic conditions were better during 2024’s first quarter than six months ago. According to the board’s previous surveys, when CEOs have reported extremely low confidence over a period of time, it tends to precede a recession, as it did in 2020, 2008, and 2001.

Over a fifth of those surveyed reported that conditions were worse for their respective businesses than six months ago. For U.S.-based businesses, the No. 1 concern for 51% of respondents was “political uncertainty ahead of the 2024 elections.” Globally, the top three concerns included existing wars in the Middle East and Eastern Europe, deglobalization, and tensions between the United States and China.

Meanwhile, employees continue to struggle to pay for goods. Some 72% of CEOs expect to increase wages by 3% or more over the next year, which is less than the pace of the national inflation rate of 3.4% for 2023. This was 0.3% more than experts expected and 2% more than the Federal Reserve’s target despite its effort to increase interest rates.

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Additionally, companies such as Google, Twitch, Amazon, Macy’s, UPS, Nike, and others have announced layoffs this year. The survey found 23% of CEOs anticipated layoffs this year, which was an increase of 13%. Another 35% predicted to increase their workforce sometime in the next 12 months.

In January, there were 353,000 job openings, per the Bureau of Labor Statistics. The unemployment rate was reported to be 3.7%.

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