Former President Barack Obama, Sen. Elizabeth Warren (D-MA), Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (D-NY), and Gov. Gavin Newsom (D-CA) have cut ads in favor of the ballot measure, framing it as a fight against the Trump administration. 

“Republicans want to steal enough seats in Congress to rig the next election and wield unchecked power for two more years,” Obama said. “With Prop. 50, you can stop Republicans in their tracks.”

Sen. Adam Schiff (D-CA), a chief Trump antagonist, told an amped up crowd at a Los Angeles event over the weekend that the Trump administration had “poked the bear.”

“And you don’t poke the bear, not in California, because if you do, that bear is going to kick your ass,” he said. 

Californians will decide on Proposition 50, a redistricting ballot measure, on Tuesday. This measure is part of a larger national push to determine which party controls the House of Representatives during Trump’s last two years in office. 

Proposition 50 would adopt maps passed by the state legislature in August that would temporarily redraw congressional district lines in favor of Democrats for the 2026, 2028, and 2030 elections, overriding a map by California’s independent redistricting commission, created to prevent just this type of thing. 

If voters approve Proposition 50, state Democrats would see the odds tilted in their favor for the 2026 midterm elections, while the number of Republicans representing Californians could be halved. California has 43 Democrats and nine Republicans in the House. Proposition 50 would shift five House districts into the competitive or easily winnable category. 

Republicans have repeatedly called foul over the ballot measure, accusing Newsom of stripping representation of conservatives and residents in rural areas as part of a greedy power grab to get himself on to the national stage as he looks toward a possible 2028 presidential run. 

Los Angeles-based political consultant Matt Klink told the Washington Examiner that part of the problem with the Republicans’ no campaign is that it missed fundraising projections. 

“Kevin McCarthy’s efforts to raise capital fell far short,” he said. “Additionally, the No campaign had a significantly more difficult argument to make. They should have stuck with the simple ‘Don’t let the politicians draw the lines,’ but even that required an explanation as to why that was important.”

Klink also blamed former California Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger for things going south, claiming he could have done more to advocate for keeping the maps the way they are. 

“Gov. Schwarzenegger likely realized that his anti-Prop 50 involvement was for a lost cause,” Klink said. “He was involved, but not substantially to make a difference.”

Lance Christensen, vice president of government affairs and education policy at California Policy Center, also faulted the former governor. 

“What the campaign truly lacked was a unifying, charismatic voice like former Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger,” Christensen told the Washington Examiner. “His disdain for Trump, combined with his commonsense independence and once-in-a-generation celebrity appeal, could have supercharged opposition messaging through videos, posters, and mailers. Instead, Schwarzenegger opted for limited engagement, a few interviews and clips, rather than an all-in effort to protect his legacy.”

Christensen also criticized McCarthy’s promise of $100 million. In the end, the former House speaker delivered only a tenth of what he said he would for his Stop Sacramento’s Power Grab group. 

“Funding shortages from figures like former Speaker Kevin McCarthy, who promised to raise $100 million, were symptomatic, not causal,” Christensen added. 

Republican megadonor Charles Munger Jr. ‘s Protect Voters First committee had more money at its disposal but was criticized by members for rolling out an outdated media strategy and a boring advertising campaign. The California Republican Party, which was supposed to serve as the No side’s get-out-the-vote force, has been accused of wasting millions of dollars on a mail program. 

“Another sign the ‘No on Prop 50’ campaign is firing on all cylinders–my ballot was received and counted 2 weeks ago and the CA GOP is still wasting postage on mailers offering me helpful instructions on how I can vote,” Rob Pyers, research director for the non-partisan California Target Book, posted on X.

Trump also complicated the effort by urging California residents not to vote early or use mail-in ballots in the Nov. 4 election, contradicting the message state Republican leaders were sending.

TRUMP BLASTS EARLY AND MAIL-IN VOTING, COMPLICATING CALIFORNIA GOP VOTER PUSH

Trump alleged that California’s redistricting battle this year, as well as the midterm elections next year, are ripe to be “rigged.” 

“No mail-in or ‘Early’ Voting, Yes to Voter ID! Watch how totally dishonest the California Prop Vote is! Millions of Ballots being ‘shipped,’” Trump posted on Truth Social. “GET SMART REPUBLICANS, BEFORE IT IS TOO LATE!!!”