For Republicans, the new terrain puts as many as five of their nine seats into varying degrees of danger, turning what were once defensive holds into survival contests.

The uncertainty starts in Northern California, where Rep. Kevin Kiley (R-CA) is expected to decide within days which district he’ll run in following the redraw. The sudden death of Rep. Doug LaMalfa earlier this year has created an unexpected open-seat scramble, injecting volatility into a region long considered safely Republican. Further south, Rep. David Valadao (R-CA) once again faces a difficult Central Valley electorate, while Reps. Ken Calvert (R-CA) and Darrell Issa (R-CA) are recalibrating campaigns in districts that now tilt more Democratic than the ones they previously won.

Democrats, for their part, see an opportunity not only to cement their power on the state level but to prove to the rest of the country that they were vital in preventing President Donald Trump’s push to consolidate power. Trump called on multiple red states to change their congressional maps to favor Republicans in the midterm elections. In response, California revised its map to match his demands. 

At stake is control of the House. Republicans have a one-seat edge, and if the GOP loses the lower chamber in 2026, it would make Trump a lame duck president and set up considerable roadblocks to his agenda.

Here’s a look at how the races are shaping up across the districts.

1st District 

Outgoing Gov. Gavin Newsom (D-CA) has come under fire from Republicans for choosing the last day possible under state law for a special election to fill LaMalfa’s seat. LaMalfa, a fourth-generation rice farmer from Richvale, California, died during emergency surgery on Jan. 5. His term ends on Jan. 3, 2027.

California Republicans accused the outgoing Democratic governor of dragging his feet for political purposes. In a Jan. 16 letter to Newsom, the California Assembly Republican Caucus said the state’s rural residents “already suffer from a severe lack of meaningful representation in both Sacramento and Washington D.C.”

They added: “When a congressional seat representing one of the largest and most rural districts in the state is left vacant, it sends a clear message: OUR VOICES ARE NOT A PRIORITY.”

Voters will be able to vote in the June 2 primary to fill LaMalfa’s seat. If needed, a runoff election will take place on Aug. 4.

The winner of that contest will represent the state’s 1st Congressional District in its pre-Proposition 50 form, which sweeps south from the Oregon border almost to Sacramento. It covers the rice fields, walnut and almond orchards of the Sacramento Valley to the forested foothills of the Sierra Nevada and the Cascade Range. The vast majority of the residents are farming families who have harvested the land for decades. It is a very rural district and among the most conservative and least diverse in the state.

Californians will also vote for candidates vying for the new post-Proposition 50 district in the June 2 primary. The top two winners will go on to the November general election.

The new map still includes Butte, Glenn, Lassen, Plumas, Sierra, and Tehama counties. Chico is still the district’s largest city. However, the district shifts southward, away from the rural, conservative areas along the Oregon border and picks up more liberal areas in parts of Sonoma County.

Six candidates will be in the running for the November election. One is Democrat Audrey Denney, the director of civic engagement at California State University, Chico. She had previously challenged LaMalfa for his seat in 2018 and 2020. In those races, she focused on wildfire preparedness, healthcare, and education. This time, she has framed the fight as one against Trump, billionaires, and the political elite.

Others include Republican Assemblyman James Gallagher, who has the blessing of LaMalfa’s widow; Democratic state Sen. Mike McGuire, who has pledged to push back on Trump; Mount Shasta resident James Salegui, a Democrat; Republican Angelita Valles, a former Victorville city councilwoman; and Santa Rosa labor attorney Kyle Wilson, a Democrat who has pitched himself as an outsider.

Denney and Gallagher have said they will run to fill the remainder of LaMalfa’s term.

3rd District

Kiley told the Washington Examiner that Newsom’s plan to redraw the congressional map ahead of this year’s midterm elections was a lesson in political greed.

Kiley, a former high school English teacher whose district was carved up under the new map, described the redistricting battle as “a direct attack on democracy” and said it set a dangerous precedent, trampled on the will of the people, and risked election errors. It also changed his political calculus.

Kiley currently represents the state’s 3rd Congressional District, a conservative-leaning area that is also the most geographically diverse in the state. It spans most of the California-Nevada border, including Sierra, Nevada, Placer, Alpine, Mono, Unyo, parts of El Dorado, Yuba, and a few outer Sacramento counties. The district spans Lake Tahoe, Death Valley National Park, and five national forests, making it one of the most rural areas in the state. The new 3rd District was split into six factions, and Kiley has said he would not run in it.

Instead, he is weighing whether to run in California’s newly drawn 5th and 6th congressional districts, though both races are considered uphill battles. He has until March 6 to decide. 

Jeff Le, who served as a deputy Cabinet secretary to former Democratic California Gov. Jerry Brown, told the Washington Examiner that Kiley would be a “heavy underdog” in the 6th District but that 69-year-old Rep.Tom McClintock (R-CA) is Trump’s clear pick for the 5th District, which is rated solidly Republican by the Cook Political Report.

Multiple California-based strategists the Washington Examiner spoke to said the odds are that Kiley runs in the new 5th District, which is on the Sierra’s west side and includes Amador, Calaveras, Tuolumne, and Mariposa counties.

The ideal scenario for Kiley would be for the six Democrats already running for the seat, none of whom have gained much traction, to cancel each other out in the June primary. Then, Kiley and McClintock would advance to the November general election. If that pans out, Kiley, who has broken with Trump and House leadership on occasion, would be the more attractive candidate to swing voters.

22nd District

Two years ago, Valadao, who represents California’s Central Valley, won reelection in a hard-fought race that made him one of two House Republicans who supported Trump’s impeachment and still held his seat. He is hoping his good fortune continues this election cycle.

Even before Proposition 50 reshaped the map, Valadao was high on Democrats’ target list. The new map gives Republicans in his district, who already hold an 11-point advantage, an 18-point advantage. But unlike the other four GOP-held seats caught up in redistricting, the field of candidates in the 22nd District is not expected to shift because of it. 

What has shifted is Democratic optimism. Party operatives see a fresh opportunity in the Central Valley and are increasingly bullish about their chances. Centrist Assemblywoman Jasmeet Bains and school board member Randy Villegas, both of whom entered the race before the new map took shape, said they are staying put and pressing ahead.

40th and 41st districts

Calvert is the longest-serving Republican in the state’s congressional delegation. The 72-year-old, who represents part of Southern California’s Inland Empire, has held his seat for 33 years, watched his district be redrawn twice, and told the Washington Examiner he isn’t afraid of a fair fight. The problem, he said, is that the new map tilts the scale and turns a fair fight into one nearly impossible to win.

Removing Calvert from office has been on the Democratic wish list for decades. 

Calvert’s 41st District was redrawn in 2021 and stretched from Corona to Palm Springs in a “W” shape, including parts of Riverside County. Under the new map, the district was further carved up, giving Democrats 20 percentage points more than Republicans.

That’s why Calvert has switched districts and is now competing in the 40th District, where his chief competitor is another Republican, Rep. Young Kim (R-CA). Kim has said she could not give up her turf without a fight. The new congressional map made her district more Republican-friendly and, to Calvert, an easier lift.  

“It’s a game of musical chairs, and a bunch of chairs just got taken away from the game,” Sacramento-based Republican strategist Rob Stutzman said. “So they’re going to be competing for what’s left.”

48th District

Eleven Democrats are vying to unseat Issa after California’s redistricting measure turned his reliably red district into a blue one. Issa told the Washington Examiner, “California is my home,” and says he isn’t going anywhere.  

The existing 48th District is anchored in the conservative, inland communities of eastern San Diego County. Under the new map, the district shifts west and north, shedding much of its rural backcountry while incorporating the North County cities of Escondido, San Marcos, and Vista. It also extends into Riverside County, including the heavily Democratic Palm Springs, where registered Democrats outnumber Republicans by more than 4 to 1.

Despite the deep field of Democrats, there are two standouts: Ammar Campa-Najjar and Marni von Wilpert.  

Both have prominent endorsements. Former Sen. Barbara Boxer, several state and local leaders, and the Democratic women’s political action committee Emily’s List are supporting von Wilpert. San Diego Reps. Mike Levin (D-CA), Scott Peters (D-CA), and Sara Jacobs (D-CA) have weighed in for Campa-Najjar, who lost to Issa in 2020 but appears determined to unseat the powerful Republican incumbent.

“I’m ready to rematch Darrell Issa and complete the mission: Defend democracy, fight for a government that works for working people, and invest in an America that empowers future generations to live, work, and retire with dignity,” said Campa-Najjar, a Navy officer and former Obama administration official.

Von Wilpert, a San Diego city councilwoman, and several candidates from the Coachella Valley are also vying to advance to the November general election.

Issa is hoping the Democratic candidates cancel themselves out, clearing a path to the general election for him.

“She’s quite a leftist,” Issa said of von Wilpert in an interview with the Washington Post. And of Campa-Najjar, he added: “The other lead candidate has been everything. He’ll be whatever he needs to be.”

The fight over Issa’s seat intensified after a new congressional map was unveiled.

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In a wide-ranging interview with the Washington Examiner, Issa blasted the redistricting process, calling the new lines “disgusting” and arguing they were intentionally crafted to weaken Republican representation in California. He said mapmakers examined Republican lawmakers’ home addresses and deliberately redrew district boundaries to push him and others out.

“They looked at my home address in Bonsall, and drew it out, my actual residence,” Issa, an 11-term incumbent, said. “And there was no reason to do it, except that they were carefully drawing me out of it so that I either have to move again or be somebody running that can’t vote for themselves.”