California May Be Gearing Up to Elect a Republican Governor

With more than three months to go before the June 2 nonpartisan primary that will determine which two candidates face off to succeed Democrat Gavin Newsom as governor of California, a Republican stands on top of the heap, according to a new poll.

The Emerson College Polling/Inside California Politics survey showed Republican Steve Hilton with the largest of support at 17 percent, Emerson College Polling reported.

Democratic Rep. Eric Swalwell received 14 percent support in the survey, the same support level as Sheriff Chad Bianco, a Republican.

Former Democratic Rep. Katie Porter received 10 percent support, and tycoon Tom Steyer was at 9 percent support. The biggest chunk of responses were undecided voters, at 21 percent.

Republican Steve Hilton rockets to lead in California governor’s race https://t.co/1s4gf94wGl pic.twitter.com/PRbQzPHUb9

— New York Post (@nypost) February 18, 2026

“The Republican electorate in California is split between Steve Hilton (38 percent) and Chad Bianco (37 percent), while Hilton also picks up a plurality of independent voter support at 22 percent,” Spencer Kimball, executive director of Emerson College Polling, said.

“Democratic voters have not yet clearly coalesced around one candidate: 23 percent of Democrats support Eric Swalwell, 14 percent support Porter, 12 percent Steyer and 22 percent are undecided,” he said.

The survey of 1,000 likely voters was conducted Feb.13 and Feb. 14 and had a margin of error of plus or minus three percentage points.

Emerson noted that since a December survey, undecided voters dipped from 31 percent to 21 percent, while support for Hilton and Steyer increased by five points each. Swalwell saw a two-point increase while Porter’s support dropped by a point. Bianco, who at 13 percent support was atop the December survey, gained one point in the new survey.

Under California’s rules, the top two candidates in the primary, regardless of party affiliation, will compete in November.

“It is mathematically possible that you could have two Republicans finishing one‑two in the primary,” political analyst Matt Klink said, according to KTLA-TV.

“That said, I believe the political brains in the Democratic Party will get involved and say we need to make sure we get one of our candidates into the runoff because he or she will likely win the general election,” Klink said, referring to the fact that enrolled Democrats far outnumber enrolled Republicans in California.

The lack of a clear Democratic leader is worrying some.

“The risk is that we have a situation where no Democrat makes the runoff. And if that happened, it would dramatically impact the general election,” Paul Mitchell, a Democratic data expert, said, according to The Hill.

“There’s six to eight Democratic candidates who are all splitting up the 60 percent of the vote that is going to go to Democrats, and then the 40 percent of votes that’s going to go to Republicans is mostly being split by two candidates right now,” Mitchell said.

“The chance is small, but it exists. … If you told me there was a 11 percent chance I could get hit by a car if I cross the street, I wouldn’t cross the street,” California Democratic strategist Steven Maviglio said.

“The threat is real, and there doesn’t seem to be a whole lot of movement that could completely rule out the scenario of having two Republicans,” he said.

Arnold Schwarzenegger was the last Republican elected governor back in 2006, according to the New York Post.

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