The rub for Democrats is that with at least a dozen candidates, votes are likely to be splintered. The crowded field of Democratic contenders includes Rep. Eric Swalwell; former U.S. Health and Human Services Secretary Xavier Becerra; former Rep. Katie Porter; billionaire Tom Steyer; former Los Angeles Mayor Antonio Villaraigosa; former state controller Betty Yee; state superintendent of public instruction Tony Thurmond; former state lawmaker Ian Calderon; and San Jose Mayor Matt Mahan.

The open political landscape has left Democratic hopefuls jockeying for position and building coalitions. Early alliances are forming, but no single contender has emerged as the front-runner. That gives the two leading Republican candidates, former Fox News host Steve Hilton and Riverside County Sheriff Chad Bianco, a better shot at securing at least one, if not both, of the spots.

“No one candidate has had a breakthrough moment to justify a coronation to the governor’s office as the [Democratic Party] still reels from the 2024 loss from one of their own,” said Jeff Le, a former deputy Cabinet secretary to Democratic California Gov. Jerry Brown.

Le added there was “heartburn with a looming possibility that two Republicans could, in theory, finish in the top two and relegate Democrats out of the November general election.”

While speculation has focused on the possibility of two Republicans advancing, the more likely scenario is that only one GOP candidate reaches November — and does so weakened.

The problem is that after playing nice for months, Hilton and Bianco have started to turn on each other. Hilton has been hammering Bianco over kneeling during Black Lives Matter protests and, more recently, on immigration. Bianco has called Hilton a liar and hit him with the ultimate insult, accusing him of being “the [Gov.] Gavin Newsom of the Republican Party.”

The escalating attacks risk doing more than narrowing the field — they threaten to shrink the Republican electorate itself.

Any Republican who advances to the general election will face steep odds of winning. California has not elected a Republican statewide since 2006, and polling shows the Democrats holding a roughly 20-point advantage. Victory could be even more difficult if the Republican who slides into the runoff is branded as an ideological traitor or seen as too right-wing to peel off independents or disaffected Democrats.

That’s exactly what Hilton is risking. By attempting to disqualify Bianco with attacks designed to excite conservative voters, Hilton may improve his odds of surviving the primary while reinforcing the image that makes a Republican statewide victory in California implausible. If Bianco wins, however, he could start the general election with a portion of the GOP base unwilling to support him because of Hilton’s attacks.

“You have to get the balance right,” political strategist Kaivan Shroff told the Washington Examiner, adding that attacking one another could backfire. “It’s especially risky in California, where Republicans already face an uphill battle because only a moderate GOP figure even has a shot, if they have one at all.”

Hilton, for his part, said that Republicans only have a chance at the governorship if they consolidate behind one candidate early.

“The only way to avoid that disaster is for us to unite behind the strongest Republican candidate,” he said. “I’m leading in the polls, leading on fundraising, won the first TV debate in a landslide, while the other Republican in the race simply has too much baggage, starting with the fact that he took a knee for Black Lives Matter.”

Hilton also pushed back on the narrative that both he and Bianco could make it through to a general election. He said that Mahan, the newest entrant backed by big tech from Silicon Valley, as well as union favorites Swalwell or Porter, were the biggest threats.

“The idea that two Republicans will advance to the general election is a fantasy,” he told the Washington Examiner. “Who seriously thinks the Democrat machine is just going to sit back and let that happen? The much more serious possibility is that we get two Democrats in the top two.”

According to a recently released Emerson College/Inside California Politics poll of 1,000 likely voters, Hilton is leading the field with 17%, followed by Swalwell and Bianco, who are tied at 14%. Hilton, a former director of strategy for British Prime Minister David Cameron, brought in $4.1 million in the second half of 2025, according to campaign finance reports. In early December, Bianco had a one-point lead over Hilton and Swalwell.

Hilton and Bianco had been playing nice for months, but things turned when Mahan, a centrist Democrat, entered the race. Mahan is a tough-on-crime candidate who has openly criticized Newsom’s policies and could pull supporters from Hilton and Bianco. During a recent gubernatorial debate that Bianco missed, Hilton not only slammed him for skipping the debate but for taking a knee with George Floyd protesters in 2020.

“In 2020, during the Black Lives Matter riots, he took a knee when told to by BLM,” Hilton said. “Now, he says he was praying.” Hilton urged voters not to take his word for it, but see the video of the “shifty sheriff” online for themselves.

“Chad Bianco has got more baggage than LAX,” said Hilton.

Bianco also drew backlash from fellow Republicans after saying on CNN that amnesty could make sense as part of a broader effort to address undocumented immigrants already living in the United States. He quickly added, “We must absolutely deport the people who are here illegally and victimizing our communities.”

He was further pressed about whether there should be a legal pathway for immigrants who have lived in the U.S. for an extended period without committing crimes. 

“We have to come up with something,” he said. “I don’t know if it’s an amnesty. I think they have to suffer a consequence. You’re not going to get a free ride. You have to pay a fine you have to … not be breaking laws, but there has to be something we come up with. It makes absolutely no sense. The ones that are criminals, there’s no question they have to go.”

Still, his comments were enough to get Hilton to claim Bianco was abandoning GOP principles. 

CALIFORNIA DEMOCRATS MEET AS PARTY CAREENS TOWARD A FRACTURED PRIMARY

California-based political strategist Susan Silvermore told the Washington Examiner that little errors in such a close race could be the difference between staying in the primaries or moving on to the general election.

“They both have to be extremely careful what they say because it’s obvious they are ready to pounce on any weakness to get ahead,” she added.