Typically, the party with the White House stumbles in the midterm elections, and that happened after Trump’s first election. In 2018, Democrats won 41 extra seats to take back control of the House, where they embarked on an impeachment frenzy.

In 2017, leading up to those elections, the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee outraised the National Republican Congressional Committee by $8.7 million.

But this year, with the help of popular House Speaker Mike Johnson (R-LA) and NRCC chief Rep. Richard Hudson (R-NC), the Republicans edged out the Democrats by $723,000 through last month, said officials. As the Washington Examiner reported, the DCCC raised more in the third quarter, but the NRCC won big in September receipts.

What’s more, the GOP messaging has greatly improved, especially during the four-week-old government shutdown, and Trump’s approval has remained in the high 40s.

That’s damning for Democrats…

43% believe the Democrats want nothing good for you. https://t.co/I4vmEa7Q7I

— Brent Buchanan, Pollster (@brentbuc) October 10, 2025

“House Republicans are lapping Democrats at every turn,” NRCC spokesman Mike Marinella told Washington Secrets Friday. He added, “Voters across the country are fired up to build on this momentum and leave Democrats in the dust.”

The NRCC said that there are several other favorable financial and polling comparisons suggesting that the party could avoid a 2018-style defeat.

First, its own fundraising is up over 2017 by about $9 million, and its cash on hand is $7.5 million higher.

Fundraising for swing district races and candidates is better than for Democrats. NRCC “Patriots” have raised $763,000 and have cash on hand of $2.4 million, said officials. For DCCC “Frontliners,” the fundraising take has been about $664,000, and they have $1.6 million on hand.

HISTORIAN DISMISSES TRUMP CRITICS: ‘WHITE HOUSE A WORK IN PROGRESS SINCE 1800’

And polling looks better for Republicans going into the midterm elections compared to where they were in 2017, an apples-to-apples comparison. While Democrats hold a slight 1.6% advantage on the Real Clear Politics polling average, they led by up to nine points eight years ago.

Trump support from MAGA has also remained strong, according to Cygnal founder and pollster Brent Buchanan. “Of voters who supported Trump in 2024 and are participating in the midterm election, his image is nearly unchanged: from 91% favorable, 8% unfavorable at inauguration to 90% favorable, 9% unfavorable a few weeks ago,” he said.