Axios Says ‘No One Knows’ Why illegal Immigrant Traffic Is Down

A quick question for the folks at Axios: Are you stupid or obtuse? 

In a bullet point info snack earlier this week, the left-leaning publication seems mystified by historically low illegal border crossings during the first five months of President Donald Trump’s second term — after explaining why illegal border crossings are at longtime lows. 

“No one knows precisely why migrant traffic along the U.S.-Mexico border has fallen so much …” Axios’ Justice and Race reporter Russell Contreras insipidly writes in the piece headlined, “Illegal border crossings hit decades low under Trump crackdown.” 

Contreras answers why traffic has fallen so much in the second line of the story, under the heading, Why it Matters. The latest data from U.S. Customs and Border Protection show Trump’s “hardline immigration approach — especially along the U.S.-Mexico border — may be achieving its goal, even as the administration has not stopped all noncitizens without papers from entry.”

In other words, while “no one knows” why Illegal immigration encounters in June dropped to their lowest levels ever, the answer is Trump and his administration are doing what previous administrations have failed to do: They are enforcing immigration law. The fact that the publication calls that a “hardline immigration approach” is quite telling in its own right. 

‘The Reason Is Pretty Obvious’

Contreras asserts that “immigration experts” (he doesn’t name said experts) tell Axios “it’s likely because migrants and smuggling networks are waiting to see how Trump’s enforcement actions play out.”

Ira Mehlman, a named immigration expert, tells The Federalist that illegal immigrants and smuggling networks know how Trump’s enforcement actions are playing out. That’s why relatively few are showing up. 

“The reason is pretty obvious. The administration has basically sent a message that you’re not going to come across, and if you do you will be deported,” Mehlman, media director for the Federation for American Immigration Reform, said Thursday in a phone interview. 

The Republican-led Big Beautiful Bill that Trump recently signed into law provides about $170 billion for border security and immigration law enforcement — with $75 billion of that record funding going to Immigration and Customs Enforcement. 

Contreras notes as much in the Axios piece, writing that “the massive drop does come as the Trump administration has sent more resources to the border, worked to end humanitarian paroles and similar programs and scaled back on refugee entries.” Hey, Axios! Over here. There’s your answer. 

Ah, but “no one knows” why the border is now secure after four disastrously long years of Joe Biden’s presidency. 

According to the CBP, there were zero paroles in June compared to 27,766 in June 2024 under Biden. Agents reported 25,228 encounters with illegal border crossers, the lowest monthly total in Border Patrol history. There were just 6,072 Southwest border apprehensions last month, down 15 percent from March’s record low. Compare all of that to the open borders era of the Biden administration when hundreds of thousands of illegal immigrants flooded in monthly. 

“Illegal crossings in June dropped to the lowest level ever recorded – just a fraction of what they were under the [Biden] administration,” White House Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt said on X.

But Axios is gobsmacked by how those record levels came about. “No one knows.” 

Mehlman said it’s like the scene in All The President’s Men when Carl Bernstein says, “If you go to bed at night and there is no snow on the ground, when you wake up there is snow on the ground, you can say it snowed during the night although you didn’t see it, right?”

“People respond rationally to the signals that are sent. Biden signaled the border was open,” Mehlman said. Trump has sent the opposite message. 

There you go, Axios. Mystery solved. 

Matt Kittle is a senior elections correspondent for The Federalist. An award-winning investigative reporter and 30-year veteran of print, broadcast, and online journalism, Kittle previously served as the executive director of Empower Wisconsin.