Santos special election: Red dominoes may begin to tumble
Riding the Wave: Can Republicans Hold onto New York in 2024?
Riding the coattails of a favorable congressional map and negative Democratic headwinds on crime and the economy, Republicans scored surprise wins in New York in 2022 to wrestle back control of the House. In this four-part series, the Washington Examiner will take a look at how focused the GOP will be on the Empire State in 2024 and if it can stop the Democratic Party from regaining the upper hand in its traditional stronghold. Part two of this series takes a look at the first race that could spark a series of victories or set off a cascade of losses for the GOP this year.
Voters in the Empire State Head to the Polls
Voters in the Empire State are heading to the polls to select a successor to disgraced former GOP Rep. George Santos in what could be the first of a string of Republican losses in New York this year.
With several of the New York Republicans elected in 2022 already working to defend swing districts, a new congressional map for November looks poised to cause more havoc after Tuesday’s special election between former Democratic Rep. Tom Suozzi and Republican Mazi Pilip.
The Candidates and the Risk
Here is a look at the two people vying for Santos’s former seat in New York’s 3rd Congressional District and the New York Republicans most at risk of losing their seats in November.
Former Rep. George Santos’s seat
Suozzi represented the Empire State’s 3rd Congressional District from 2017 until 2023. Suozzi announced he was not going to run for reelection and joined the crowded race for governor in 2022. He finished in a distant third place in the Democratic gubernatorial primary in 2022, with incumbent Gov. Kathy Hochul (D-NY) handily winning the contest after only one year on the job.
He was selected as the Democrats’ nominee for the district in December, shortly after Santos was ousted.
“In my campaign, I’m looking at Washington, D.C., and I’m saying, ‘Hey, something’s not working in Washington, and I only left a year ago,’” Suozzi said at his campaign launch. “Even though I saw the division when I was there, it’s gotten worse. It’s scary. And I see so many people that are so fed up with the system.”
During his time in Congress, Suozzi voted 100% with President Joe Biden during the 117th Congress and 20.5% with then-President Donald Trump while he was in the White House, according to an analysis by FiveThirtyEight.
Pilip has served in the Nassau County legislature since 2022, being reelected last year, and is viewed as a rising star in the Long Island GOP. She was born in Ethiopia before moving to Israel and serving in the Israel Defense Forces, later emigrating to the U.S. She has made support for Israel a chief part of her campaign.
With the saga regarding border security measures in Congress, immigration and the southern border have become key topics in this New York special election. Pilip attempted to tie Suozzi to the border crisis during a debate last week, with attacks that he “voted to open the borders” and charged that Suozzi “created the migrant crisis.” Suozzi denied the characterization, arguing he voted to fund Immigration and Customs Enforcement when in Congress.
The race has been rated as a “toss-up” by the Cook Political Report, but the lingering bad feelings about Santos and a significant fundraising advantage could help Democrats flip the seat.
Other Republicans at Risk
While Republicans may still hold on to the 3rd Congressional District on Tuesday, it will be the first of many Empire State challenges in 2024. The state will get a new congressional map for use in November, which is widely expected to be more favorable to Democrats, but before that can be factored, several incumbents are already in vulnerable positions.
The Cook Political Report has rated Reps. Anthony D’Esposito (R-NY), Mike Lawler (R-NY), Marc Molinaro (R-NY), and Brandon Williams (R-NY) as being in “toss-up” districts after winning their seats in 2022. Three of the four currently represent districts with a net Democratic partisan voting index, according to the outlet, while Molinaro represents a district with an “even” index.
Republicans were boosted with a favorable map and a stronger-than-expected gubernatorial candidate in former Rep. Lee Zeldin, who still lost to Hochul by roughly 6% in 2022. But with a new map, other Republicans could also be under threat of losing their seat.
Reps. Nick LaLota (R-NY) and Nicole Malliotakis (R-NY) are currently in a good position to win reelection in November, with races rated as “likely Republican” and “solid Republican” by the Cook Political Report, but a new map could change that.
In 2022, the map drawn by the Democratic-led legislature targeted LaLota’s and Malliotakis’s districts, but they were struck down by a court, leading to the GOP-friendly maps used in the last election.
LaLota’s district — the 1st Congressional District, on the eastern part of Long Island — was drawn to have a partisan voting index of plus-6 Democratic, according to FiveThirtyEight, while the current one is Republican plus-3, per the Cook Political Report.
Malliotakis’s district — the 11th Congressional District, which includes all of Staten Island and parts of Brooklyn — was drawn to have a partisan voting index of plus-7 Democratic, according to FiveThirtyEight, while the current one has a partisan voting index of Republican plus-6, per the Cook Political Report.
The new congressional map has yet to be drawn, so which districts are changed and how they are changed is currently unknown, but it’s widely expected to be less favorable for Republicans than it was two years ago. The new map is expected to be enacted in the coming months, ahead of the June 25 primary election and the Nov. 5 general election.
How does John Katko’s history as a swing district representative impact his vulnerability in the upcoming election?
John Katko (R-NY) as vulnerable in the upcoming election. These representatives will not only have to defend their seats against strong Democratic contenders but also navigate the potential challenges posed by a redrawn congressional map.
Rep. Anthony D’Esposito represents New York’s 2nd Congressional District, a traditionally conservative area. However, with the changing demographics and shifting political climate, D’Esposito is facing a tough battle for reelection. He will need to connect with voters and articulate his vision for the district to maintain his seat in Congress.
Similarly, Rep. Mike Lawler represents the 17th Congressional District, which includes parts of Rockland and Westchester counties. Lawler’s position in Congress is also under threat, as Democrats see an opportunity to flip the seat. Lawler will need to emphasize his accomplishments and highlight his commitment to serving the district in order to overcome the Democratic challenge.
Rep. Marc Molinaro, a former gubernatorial candidate, represents the 19th Congressional District. Molinaro’s district has been redrawn, potentially making it more difficult for him to secure reelection. He will need to adapt his campaign strategies to engage with the new constituents and convince them of his value as their representative.
Finally, Rep. John Katko represents the 24th Congressional District, an area that has historically swung between Republicans and Democrats. Katko has been a target for Democrats in previous elections, and this year will be no different. He will face a tough battle to maintain his seat, requiring him to showcase his bipartisan approach and appeal to a diverse constituency.
The Republicans in these districts will need to address the concerns of their constituents and offer a compelling vision for the future. They must also confront the challenges posed by a potential redrawing of the congressional map, which could tip the scales further in favor of the Democrats.
In conclusion, while Republicans were able to achieve surprise wins in New York in 2022, the party faces an uphill battle to maintain their hold on the state in 2024. With several vulnerable seats and the potential changes in the congressional map, Republicans must mount strong campaigns and connect with voters to secure their positions. Only time will tell if they can ride the wave of their recent victories or if Democrats will regain the upper hand in their traditional stronghold of New York.
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